Reply to For parents that were shocked their kids didn't get accepted...

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Where you unaware of the significant increase in applications since COVID? Did you think TO would have no effect on the applicant pool? Did anyone (e.g., college counselor) discuss yield projection for perceived "safety" schools? Do you consider the math/odds in applying to a school that accepts less than 20% of applicants? Did you discuss any of these issues with your kids before they applied? Or is it something else?

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I heard there was expected to be a huge increase in applications but I wasn't sure what that impact would be. We figured that the schools would still look at tests for those students that did submit them. I remember seeing statistics showing that for TO schools in the prior year, the acceptance rate was higher for students that did submit test scores. We guessed that the increase in applications is mainly from students who are reaching at schools that they normally would not have applied to and that the schools will still find a way to admit students according to their normal standards. In short, we figured that TO was largely a form of virtue signaling. Apparently, we were wrong.

My kid's counselor was very reassuring to our kid regarding his chances of being accepted. Looking at the Naviance map for his ED school, his stats are in the heart of a cluster of checkmarks and only one X. Despite this, we applied to 20+ schools because ED/EA rounds completely shattered our preconceived notions. Now the counselor is voicing frustration and the sinking feeling that the students haven't been given adequate guidance this year. One student with a 3.6 GPA and 1350 SAT applied to a "normal" number of schools and did not get into any of them.

We did consider the math/odds but felt confident about our kid's stats, ECs, recommendations, and essay quality. Even if he has bad luck at one, two, three, or four schools, he should not have bad luck at 10 or 20 schools. We are engineers and we understand statistics; both of us are also in administrative roles and write documents targeted toward a variety of audiences so we understand the importance of connecting with the reader. I believe we were rationally optimistic based on the then-best-available information.

I do want to congratulate all the students that got into a school that they are happy with. It's a valuable opportunity and I wish them the very best. 
[/quote]

And???[/quote]

And is right.

And by the way, if this is a public school you're talking about, all you're doing is proving our point. [b]A 3.6 GPA is inconsistent with a 1350 SAT score.[/b] [/quote]

NP, still waiting to hear how a 3.6 is inconsistent with a 1350. Should the SAT score be lower or higher?[/quote]

If a kid is doing 3.6 level work, then the SAT should be higher - at least 1400, and probably 1450.  That's why I asked if it's a public school.  A 3.6 at a public school is not the same as a 3.6 at a private.[/quote]

DC had a bit of the opposite - 35 ACT and 3.5ish GPA. DC easily able to demonstrated consistent upwards progress in grades, but the first two semesters in the 3.2 range are a millstone around a GPA. [/quote]

Again, public school or private school?[/quote]

SOME private schools. I am personally familiar with the grade deflation at a Big 3. I get it. But not ALL private schools are like that. AOs know this.  At a different private school, a high test score and lower GPA might signal that they aren’t working hard. You just can’t judge all privates the same. [/quote]

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