2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Harris only needs Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

RACE OFFICE WIN %
Pennsylvania President 52% D ***
Arizona President 54% R
Wisconsin President 54% D ***
Georgia President 61% R
Michigan President 63% D ***
Nevada President 65% D
North Carolina President 65% R

https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/president/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:🚨 Recent Pennsylvania polls:

🔴 Fox: Trump+1
🔴 Emerson: Trump+1
🔴 AtlasIntel: Trump+3
🔴 InsiderAdvantage: Trump+2
🔴 Trafalgar: Trump+3
🔴 Patriot Polling: Trump+1

This is INSANE. He is posting lead after lead, and it’s unprecedented for Trump in September of an election.

Bro really delete all the polls that have Harris leading, and then claimed Trump is leading all the rest.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Not relevant. Only 3-5 states matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not relevant. Only 3-5 states matter.

If Harris gets up to +6 consistently on a national basis, that is relevant, actually.

[Anonymous]

AARP uses Trump pollsters.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:🚨 Recent Pennsylvania polls:

🔴 Fox: Trump+1
🔴 Emerson: Trump+1
🔴 AtlasIntel: Trump+3
🔴 InsiderAdvantage: Trump+2
🔴 Trafalgar: Trump+3
🔴 Patriot Polling: Trump+1

This is INSANE. He is posting lead after lead, and it’s unprecedented for Trump in September of an election.

Bro really delete all the polls that have Harris leading, and then claimed Trump is leading all the rest.

These are all right wing polls, and several are really poor outfits.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

"insider advantage" is another one of those sham right wing polling firms. But thanks for sharing anyhow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not relevant. Only 3-5 states matter.

If Harris gets up to +6 consistently on a national basis, that is relevant, actually.

DP
I agree with you that national polls can be meaningful, but Morning Consult isn't awesome. These are opt-in surveys so basically cheap marketing surveys.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/upshot/online-polls-election.html#

The newer opt-in pollsters haven’t fared any better. SurveyMonkey and Morning Consult, two of the most prolific opt-in pollsters to pop up since 2012, have posted well-below-average despite having established pollsters and political scientists leading their political polling.

More recently, a whole new wave of online pollsters has popped up. In just the last few months, pollsters like SoCal Strategies, Quantus Polls, ActiVote and Outward Intelligence have published dozens of polls, often with scant methodological detail. Maybe one of these firms is a diamond in the rough, but history offers no reason to expect it.

Online opt-in pollsters have fared so poorly in recent cycles that they receive less weight than other surveys in our polling averages.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

AARP uses Trump pollsters.

More 65+ voters going for Harris than Trump. I guess they feel that Rs are a danger to their social security checks and medicare, and they'd be correct.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-retirees-explain-why-believe-120007058.html

[Anonymous]

Really no need to look at polls, just the pollster. For national polls, it is either Trump +2 to -1 or Harris +4-8

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Donald Trump may actually win all of the Battleground States.

Delivering not only an Electoral College victory, but also Popular Vote!

Of course he may win all the toss-up states.

There is no chance he wins the PV. He lost by over 2 million in 2016 and by over SEVEN million last time.

Only dummies and liars care about the popular vote. Voter turnout is low overall, and people in non purple regions aren't motivated to vote.

Voter turnout has been increasing actually.

And would be higher if it weren’t for Republicans actively suppressing voter turnout.

[Anonymous]

National polls are useless.

State by state or bust.

[Anonymous]