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2024 POTUS - polling only
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Anonymous
538 supports these numbers as they compile poll to present. Yep, Trump will win PA. Should have picked Shapiro! |
Anonymous
So assuming these are all equal, the mode is +1. So PA is a toss-up, which we've known for months. |
Anonymous
Anonymous
These are all within the margin of error, as are the other polls. There really isn't a lot to conclude here. |
Anonymous
OF these Emerson is the only top 10 pollster of the lot. And the above has misrepresented Emerson, which was Even according to 538. Fox and Atlas are mediocre pollsters and Trafalgar and Patriot are junk pollsters. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ 538 ratings of the pollsters #10 - Emerson #16 - Beacon Research/Shaw & Co Research (Fox pollster) #22 - AtlasIntel #95 - IntelAdvantage #249 - Patriot Polling #279 - Trafalgar Instead looking at more highly rated pollsters: #1 - NYT/Siena - Harris+3/+4 #2 - ABC News/WaPo - Even/Harris+1 #3 - Marquette - No poll found in September #4 - YouGov - Even #5 - Monmouth Univ - No poll found in September #6 - Marist College - Even/Harris+1 #7 - Suffolk Univ - Harris +3 #8 - Data Orbital- No poll found in September #9 - Univ of Mass Lowell Center - Harris+2 #10 - Emerson - Even Note that of the top 10 rated pollsters, NONE have Trump leading in Pennsylvania. The best for him is EVEN. This is what the Republicans do. They flood the media with junk pollsters who do not try to create a balanced poll, but who try to get a favorable polling by playing with the demographics of who they poll and then try to tilt the public with tainted data. |
Anonymous
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They want to create a "the election is stolen" narrative for another Jan. 6. |
Anonymous
| Trump has all the momentum. |
Anonymous
The guy who can only do daytime speeches now, who lies about everything and can barely draw a crowd, sure. |
Anonymous
To be honest, Kamala Harris supporters should welcome these polls showing a dead heat in all the swing states. If people truly believe that their vote matters and see the election as a binary choice, we will have a very high turnout election with minimal votes wasted on hopeless 3rd party candidates. Thatβs good for Harris. |
Anonymous
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I need to stay way from
This thread. There is no hope! |
Anonymous
So you're predicting a red wave? |