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[quote=Anonymous]I haven't been really knowledgeable about Russian for almost 20 years, but I was before that.  The only thing I know for sure about it is that Western media is consistently and remarkably misrepresents just about everything that happens there.  There is a huge gap between reality and what we read.

Just for fun I'll make predictions anyway.  First, Russia will not be democratic anytime soon, if ever.  Russian people do not have a strong belief in the power of democracy, and are much more accepting - and approving - of authoritarianism.

However, in spite of a strong spirit of stoicism, they are also accepting of violence in support of political change, when an authoritarian regime has too long and too severely neglected people's basic needs - mostly economic (they are less concerned with western values of "freedom" and civil rights).  Much of Russia's history looks to me like a tug-of-war between totalitarian rule of fear and threat of violent rebellion, perhaps even a spiral in which each one increases until something gives (perhaps even Western interference) and one side comes out on top.  For a while.

Moments when government has undergone significant change in Russia have typically come at times of weakness - usually a new ruler, seen as weaker than the previous one (i.e. the last czar, Gorbachev).  All the most tyrannical regimes have continued up until the death of the ruler - Stalin being possibly the worst, was not displaced until the moment he died, and possibly not even then as apparently close aides were too afraid of him to even behave as if he were dead, for fear it was a trick.  So based on that, there is reason to believe that Putin's abuses will be tolerated until he dies, and at that point there will be a chance for a significant, undemocratic change in government.

As for Russia becoming an isolated backwater, I doubt it.  Russia has significant industry, technology, education, and general infrastructure. And if they aren't completely brain-drained by now, they never will be.  I think it is most likely they will continue on as they have - a semi-violent and mildly chaotic tinkering toward a more perfect authoritarianism - one which provides economic prosperity for everyone (not just oligarchs) and supports a large middle class in relative comfort.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents, and that's probably what it's worth.

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