Data-driven lottery predictions!
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Anonymous
Swami! Good to know you are still here. Oh so many years ago you were correct about our lottery results! |
Anonymous
Nowhere in the Brent boundary has proximity preference to Van Ness either. The closest part of the boundary to Van Ness is within 1/2 a mile of Brent. I think it maybe has to be Amidon-Bowen. |
Anonymous
How large are those 3 5th grade classes tho? If they've considered consolidating to 2, my guess is the classes are small. Which means there will be room for more students in them in coming years. If the school is committed to having 3 classes per grade through 5th, it makes sense to lean towards larger classes in 3rd. There's ebb and flow to this. I am not surprised LT is currently at max capacity, given JOW and Brent are both in swing spaces, TR4 has gone downhill, and CHML continues to bleed students in upper grades. But the pressure will ease when JOW and Brent are in new spaces. A few years from now LT may be in a very different situation due to JOW retaining more IB students, for instance. One or two bumper crops of kids are not a crisis. |
Anonymous
Here is L-T's initial draft budget for FY 2027. A forecast of +24 students total, and a decrease of -40 in the at-risk population (wow). SPED total is +18. The grade level breakdown is actually for a big increase in 3rd (+14), +8 in 4th, and +2 in 5th. https://dcpsbudget.com/datasets/ludlow-taylor-es-initial-budget-fy2027/ |
Anonymous
OP here, AKA the Lottery Nerd! I'm back! This one is SO TRICKY! Two kids at once, plus the weirdness with the Brent numbers because of the swing space, plus the fact that with a lot of these DCPS', the K will not pull in the PK3! I'm going to do what I did last time and assume that in most cases, either child getting in pulls the other one in, with the exceptions listed. That will overestimate your odds by at least a little, particularly for October waitlist offers (which might come too late to pull in the other), but should be pretty close. I'm also assuming you'd take an offer in October since you didn't specify. The Brent numbers are SO different between last year and the previous four years. Particularly for you, the biggest differenUce is that previously, siblings of OOB kids were NOT making it in, but last year, they did! That changes the whole dynamic. Because averages seem silly in this case, I've separated the whole dang list out into two scenarios - one just using the Brent numbers from last year (which I think is most likely to be similar to this year because they're both the swing space years) and one using Brent numbers from the previous four years (averaged). It changes things dramatically! Using last year's Brent numbers: SWS - 7% K at Maury (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 2% Brent - 56% LT - 0% Yu Ying - 0% ITDS - 0% Lee - 0% K at Hyde-Addison (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 20% Mundo Cook - 15% JO Wilson - 0% Using Brent numbers from the previous 4 years: SWS - 7% K at Maury (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 2% K at Brent (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 31% LT - 0% Yu Ying - 1% ITDS - 4% Lee - 18% K at Hyde-Addison (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 22% Mundo Cook - 15% JO Wilson - 0% |
Anonymous
This is incorrect, we are IB for Brent but have proximity preference for Van Ness. We live right on the southeastern border of the Brent boundary |
Anonymous
| Hey OP, thanks for the K and PK3 breakdown! |
Anonymous
Just want to note that based on this info, the PP is incorrect that the current 3rd grade at LT is "busting at the seams." The issue is actually that the current 2nd grade is huge. That's why next year's 3rd grade (current year 2nd graders) are expected to increase by 14 -- because this year's 2nd grade class is significant larger than this year's 3rd grade class, which is actually smaller than both the class above it and the one below it. Here's the breakdown for this year (and the projection for next year in parentheses, with the net change): 2nd Grade -- 74 (68, -6) 3rd Grade -- 68 (82, +14) 4th Grade -- 71 (79, +8) 5th Grade -- 53 (55, +2) So to say the current 3rd grade is bursting at the seems makes no sense -- it's slightly smaller than the current 2nd and 4th grade classes. NEXT year's 3rd grade class will be huge -- that's the class they must be hoping/praying for attrition because if the are projected to have 82 students, they are going to have to consider adding a teacher to the grade. |
Anonymous
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For 1st grade, no prefs, would not switch in Oct.
Ross Hearst Eaton Hyde Murch Garrison |
Anonymous
The -40 at risk is a correction for across multiple over-predicted years (still over counts the number of at risk kids at the school now). The +24 is one less than the school has now; DCPS just massively underpredicted last year. The projection per grade is wildly off — was the subject of an LSAT meeting, which I’d guess you can see the notes from — but DCPS said they don’t care as long as the school number checks out, so principal chose not to argue as long as the can decide how to meet (so lottery spots down from 50 to 10 in 1st+ grades). |
Anonymous
No. I am not wrong. These are based on DCPS projections, which are wrong. 2nd had 76 kids in 4 classes; 3rd has 75 in 3. You tell me which busting at the seams. Projections from DCPS are meaningless because they take into account past growth based on forced lottery seats. 82 for 3rd is wrong, because the school will be offering zero lottery seats, so no chance they go from 76 to 82 based on IB students. They are not adding a 3rd grade class — the schools has a departmentalized 3rd grade so that would change the entire model. This really shows how misleading DCPS projections can be, because they don’t correct them based on the actual numbers. Next year they’ll claim the 3rd has the 82 students it predicted, but it never will have; the projection without correction system is dumb. |
Anonymous
Interesting. Google Maps can’t show me a single address where this is true. The schools are only .7 of a mile apart and to get permits you need to be more than .5 from your boundary and closer to the school. Can you give me a block? I can’t find a single street where the criteria is met even after a few you telling me where. (Unless I’m wrong about the Brent southern border being the highway?) |
Anonymous
Wait, if those numbers are just made up even for 2026, what is the point of having posted them here at all? |
Anonymous
I didn’t post them. Another poster pulled them off of the publicly available projections, likely assuming the were accurate. However, when DCPS does projections for a year, they mark them against the projections from the prior year not the actual census. You can find the real data somewhere too though — whenever the audited counts are done for the year. |
Anonymous
It's on the OSSE enrollment audit website but the current year spreadsheet isn't up yet. Annoying that it takes so long. https://edscape.dc.gov/node/1730326 shows the enrollment trends of specific schools. |