Data-driven lottery predictions!
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
JO Wilson is going back to its usual location after a 1.5 year renovation. I would expect more inbound uptake and this it being harder to get into oob than leading up to or during a reno |
Anonymous
|
4th grade, absolutely zero preference. Miner is IB
Maury (ha ha ha ha ha) Brent (ha ha ha ha ha, aware of the swing space) L-T Watkins JO Wilson Payne Chisholm (English only) Thomson John Francis TR 4th TR Young |
Anonymous
Don’t put Brent near the top of your list for 4th. You’ll have 4th in the swing space and then just the awkward “Upper School” 5th for one year in the new building. (They don’t retain a lot of students in 5th because of feeding to Jefferson so they sprinkle them in small pods into the 4th grade rooms…) Any of the four others right below are far better decisions for moving at 4th. Search the board for more info on the Upper School model, but you can re-order your list until mid March. |
Anonymous
I mean, the deadline has closed and this is the PP's list. However, since I think the odds of them getting into any of their top 3 choices in the initial lottery are slim to non-existent, they can always re-order after results come out to adjust for things. I am not OP of this thread, but think you stand a good shot at JO Wilson at least. They have some wiggle room in 4th due to attrition during the swing space and while I expect their lower grades to fill faster due to the new building, I think 4th and 5th will have more options. You will almost definitely get spots at one or both TR campuses, I would hold out for Watkins, Payne, or JOW. I don't think you'll get anything at Maury/Brent/L-T even after school starts, those schools do not see much attrition in 4th (everyone is sitting pat that year, attrition does happen in 5th obviously) and I don't think Maury or L-T are going to offer any lottery spots for 4th this year. Brent I'm less sure about because of the swing space, but given their historic approach to 4th/5th, I doubt it. |
Anonymous
LT is not offering 4th grade lottery spots. 3rd grade is busting at the seams and hoping for attrition! Watkins has cleared it’s WL in 4th or not even filled recently, so you’re almost guaranteed to get in there. |
Anonymous
The deadline has not passed. You can reorder until 3/13 |
Anonymous
Could be IB for Chisholm and not interested in immersion. Or IB for Brent or Amidon and not interested in commuting to Columbus Heights swing space for PK3 (Brent) or PK4-K (Amidon). |
Anonymous
No reason to stress, as there will be attrition between 4th and 5th regardless. Maury and Brent should also max out their 3rd grade classes for the same reason. It could help ensure fewer kids coming in via lottery for 5th and may help with larger cohorts to respective middle schools. If Brent maxed out their 3rd grade, they might not have their idiotic set up for 4th/5th. There is an art to managing cohort sizes and it's not smart to keep class sizes low when you know you're going to lose a certain number of students in the cohort over the next couple years no matter what. It's better to have a couple bumper years with full classrooms than to constantly be playing the consolidation game or taking in a dozen new students at 5th when it's too late to really integrate them into the culture of the school. |
Anonymous
LT is nowhere near the Brent position. There are 3 3rd grade classes and only 6 new kids entered 3rd via the lottery (and the current 5th grade was 2-3 students/class smaller than the current 3rd). The question for LT has been 2 vs 3 5th grade classes historically, but honestly I think it’s unlikely to ever go back to 2. The classes coming up in current 2nd-4th are all very large; there are actually 4 2nd grade classes, but they’re offering no 3rd grade spots and hoping for attrition there too. DCPS kept forcing LT to offer lottery slots as though its IB numbers & retention numbers were constant and, as a result, LT gained close to 100 kids in 3 years. They seem to have finally realized that the need to pull on the breaks, so LT is going from offering 40+ lottery spots in 1st and up to about 10 this year. |
Anonymous
| ^ Sorry, should say only 6 new 5th graders entered via the lottery this year (not 3rd). |
Anonymous
|
I’ll play but mostly want to meet OP, lol. I also did some last minute switcheroo on the full list that I regret but alas let the lottery do what it does from here.
PK3 Mundo Cook Mundo C8 SWS Maury (in boundary) Chisholm LT ( ha ha ha ha ) Peabody ( ha ha ha ha ) AppleTree LP JO Wilson Miner AppleTree OK … Among the regrets is not putting CHML just in case even though the principal is apparently a shit show |
Anonymous
Often imitated, never duplicated. Miss you guys. - Swami |
Anonymous
Not sure where in the Chisholm boundary would have proximity preference at van ness |
Anonymous
Truer words were never spoken. Swami threads were the best! |
Anonymous
Swami was just so funny. - the Langley Booster |