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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]What about this, for K and PK3, no preferences (knowing the PK3 has virtually no chance at the DCPS but is listed just to be safe with a focus of possibly helping the K get into a citywide or charter):

SWS
Maury
Brent
LT
Yu Ying
ITDS
Lee
Hyde-Addison
Mundo Cook
JO Wilson[/quote]

OP here, AKA the Lottery Nerd! I'm back!

This one is SO TRICKY! Two kids at once, plus the weirdness with the Brent numbers because of the swing space, plus the fact that with a lot of these DCPS', the K will not pull in the PK3!

I'm going to do what I did last time and assume that in most cases, either child getting in pulls the other one in, with the exceptions listed. That will overestimate your odds by at least a little, particularly for October waitlist offers (which might come too late to pull in the other), but should be pretty close. I'm also assuming you'd take an offer in October since you didn't specify.

The Brent numbers are SO different between last year and the previous four years. Particularly for you, the biggest differenUce is that previously, siblings of OOB kids were NOT making it in, but last year, they did! That changes the whole dynamic. Because averages seem silly in this case, I've separated the whole dang list out into two scenarios - one just using the Brent numbers from last year (which I think is most likely to be similar to this year because they're both the swing space years) and one using Brent numbers from the previous four years (averaged). It changes things dramatically!

Using last year's Brent numbers:

SWS - 7%
K at Maury (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 2%
Brent - 56%
LT - 0%
Yu Ying - 0%
ITDS - 0%
Lee - 0%
K at Hyde-Addison (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 20%
Mundo Cook - 15%
JO Wilson - 0%

Using Brent numbers from the previous 4 years:

SWS - 7%
K at Maury (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 2%
K at Brent (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 31%
LT - 0%
Yu Ying - 1%
ITDS - 4%
Lee - 18%
K at Hyde-Addison (PK3 will not get in - they'll be somewhere lower on their list) - 22%
Mundo Cook - 15%
JO Wilson - 0%[/quote]

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