2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Perhaps the Republicans should have gone with blatant bigotry instead of implied bigotry all along.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not accurate. From the Marist poll data:

Registered in GA: D=41%, R=41%, I=18%
Poll: D=35%, R=39%, I=25%

Registered in NC: D=33%, R=30%, I=36%
Poll: D=36%, R=36%, I=27%

Registered in AZ: D=29%, R=35%, I=34%
Poll: D=32%, R=39%, I=28%

Looks like they were pretty close to representative for both left and right. In most cases, they polled higher for both Ds and Rs than registered and lower for Is. That could be construed as giving higher number for left and/or right leaning I's. They kept the relatively numbers pretty close. If anything, they oversampled R votes. In GA, the registered at even, but they sampled 4% more R. In NC, D have 3% more, but they sampled D/R evenly. In AZ, D are 6% lower and they sampled D's 7% lower. In all three of these cases they oversampled R's by 1-4%.

Who knows how accurate it is given that NC just eliminated 10 pct of its voting population for not meeting “requirements.”

removing people for not voting for two cycles is ridiculous.

They can re-register. The board is controlled by Democrats, so they oversaw the voter purge.

I don’t know the NC law, but most states remove inactive voters after two cycles. I do think they should do it after the presidential election rather than before because the presidential race is when infrequent voters turn out. The procedure generally is to mail them a notice that they will be removed unless they respond. For the people that moved, they can change their voter registration when they update their drivers license or state ID.

[Anonymous]

The Gallup poll on party identification (not registration):

https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx

It relies heavily on "leans", which doesn't necessarily translate into Trump support. It is a drastic shift though.

The monthly polls show some absurd swings - +/-5% back and forth.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:[
Voter Registration Changes: Nov 2020 to Jul 2024

🔴 Republicans: +393,365
🔵 Democrats: -3,584,321
⚪️ Independents: +1,802,932

Where are the missing 1.5 Million people?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Voter Registration Changes: Nov 2020 to Jul 2024

🔴 Republicans: +393,365
🔵 Democrats: -3,584,321
⚪️ Independents: +1,802,932

Looks like the GOP has been successful in mass voter purges.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

What county?

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

What county?

Luzerne County, PA. The Wilkes-Barre county between Scranton and Allentown. It was traditionally a Democratic county but the last few cycles has been leaning steadily more and more Right. In 2020, was as much as a 49K lead by Democrats. This cycle, they Republicans new voter registrations have outnumbered Democratic and as of this week: 87,415 Republicans and 87,332 Democrats — a difference of 83.

That said, in 2020, the county voted 64,873 Biden and 86,929 Trump, so losing this county to Trump does not change the 2020 math, other than to what degree. It already was leaning right.

[Anonymous]

Harris is underperforming Biden in almost every swing state and even underperforming Clinton in some states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Dems need to stop acting like they have an edge. The polls don’t reflect that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harris is underperforming Biden in almost every swing state and even underperforming Clinton in some states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Dems need to stop acting like they have an edge. The polls don’t reflect that.

The polls are basically 50-50 in every swing state. Everyone knows this is going to be close to the end.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harris is underperforming Biden in almost every swing state and even underperforming Clinton in some states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Dems need to stop acting like they have an edge. The polls don’t reflect that.

Biden and Clinton had campaigns operating for well over a year ahead of their elections. Harris has been running for president for basically two months. She was VP of a very unpopular POTUS that exited this same POTUS race under not so great terms just a few weeks before the party convention. She is slowly crawling out from under that Biden cloud and introducing herself as her own person. She still has 6 weeks before the election to win over the swing voters. There is no reason she can't do that considering the weal competition. Giver her a chance and have faith.

[Anonymous]

In the economist model:
Harris is at a 3 in 5 chance with 281 to Trump 257 electoral votes.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Not directly related, but...

Amazing what happens when the media stops calling you old and demented.