Could Crown High School and/or Northwood stall out?

[Anonymous]

Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

Yes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

They’ve had to delay these projects because the council has been diverting money from the schools CIP to give subsidies to developers. Despite declining enrollment all of these projects are necessary because they either address overcrowding in areas that are growing or they fix buildings that have reached EOL. They will be built eventually but could easily be delayed while Friedson is council president because he’s been the main advocate for taking money out of the CIP to subsidize developers.

[Anonymous]

They did already make Woodward smaller because inflation of the construction price made it worth reducing the size of the High School.

It would take a pretty precipitous drop in population to make these new buildings totally unnecessary - the need is evident based on projections just a few years out. But, like Woodward, if the cost increases too much, it could make sense to make marginal cuts to the space/numbers of seats.

[Anonymous]

In looking at growth/shrinking of population, you need to look at specific areas. Areas near public transit with affordable homes are growing. We will still need new schools in growing areas that are already well over capacity. Crown and Northwood meet these needs. But…there really is no money so either could be delayed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

So many conflicting parts in your post.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

They’ve had to delay these projects because the council has been diverting money from the schools CIP to give subsidies to developers. Despite declining enrollment all of these projects are necessary because they either address overcrowding in areas that are growing or they fix buildings that have reached EOL. They will be built eventually but could easily be delayed while Friedson is council president because he’s been the main advocate for taking money out of the CIP to subsidize developers.

Don’t forget MCPTA’s part in this diversion of funds away from education and towards developers.

MCPTA advocated for and supported property tax changes that hurt individuals (aka members) and didn’t object to also advocated for tax cuts for developers. The developers have totally played education advocates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

They’ve had to delay these projects because the council has been diverting money from the schools CIP to give subsidies to developers. Despite declining enrollment all of these projects are necessary because they either address overcrowding in areas that are growing or they fix buildings that have reached EOL. They will be built eventually but could easily be delayed while Friedson is council president because he’s been the main advocate for taking money out of the CIP to subsidize developers.

Don’t forget MCPTA’s part in this diversion of funds away from education and towards developers.

MCPTA advocated for and supported property tax changes that hurt individuals (aka members) and didn’t object to also advocated for tax cuts for developers. The developers have totally played education advocates.

100 percent this. MCPTA totally got played. They’re worthless.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They did already make Woodward smaller because inflation of the construction price made it worth reducing the size of the High School.

It would take a pretty precipitous drop in population to make these new buildings totally unnecessary - the need is evident based on projections just a few years out. But, like Woodward, if the cost increases too much, it could make sense to make marginal cuts to the space/numbers of seats.

Elrich worked with MCPS to engineer the Woodward reduction to punish Friedson for the first round of tax cuts that he pushed through for developers. Elrich cut Crescent trail money for the same reason.

[Anonymous]

They pulled a permit for Northwood construction. https://mocoshow.com/2024/01/19/198-million-permit-pulled-for-new-northwood-high-school-construction/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They did already make Woodward smaller because inflation of the construction price made it worth reducing the size of the High School.

It would take a pretty precipitous drop in population to make these new buildings totally unnecessary - the need is evident based on projections just a few years out. But, like Woodward, if the cost increases too much, it could make sense to make marginal cuts to the space/numbers of seats.

Elrich worked with MCPS to engineer the Woodward reduction to punish Friedson for the first round of tax cuts that he pushed through for developers. Elrich cut Crescent trail money for the same reason.

Only someone who is unfamiliar with both Elrich and MCPS could come up with such an absurd conspiracy fantasy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

Crown doesn’t really need to be built. There are enough high school space to accommodate some overcrowding high schools. All they need to do is just to slightly shift the boundaries.

[Anonymous]

You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They did already make Woodward smaller because inflation of the construction price made it worth reducing the size of the High School.

It would take a pretty precipitous drop in population to make these new buildings totally unnecessary - the need is evident based on projections just a few years out. But, like Woodward, if the cost increases too much, it could make sense to make marginal cuts to the space/numbers of seats.

Elrich worked with MCPS to engineer the Woodward reduction to punish Friedson for the first round of tax cuts that he pushed through for developers. Elrich cut Crescent trail money for the same reason.

Only someone who is unfamiliar with both Elrich and MCPS could come up with such an absurd conspiracy fantasy.

Elrich (really, Madaleno) plays chess sometimes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They pulled a permit for Northwood construction. https://mocoshow.com/2024/01/19/198-million-permit-pulled-for-new-northwood-high-school-construction/

Both Northwood and Crown have the same completion date. So if crown permit hasn’t been pulled, does it mean crown cannot be completed by Aug 2027?