Could Crown High School and/or Northwood stall out?

[Anonymous]

Rising prices imply steady or increasing demand for housing. If people were really leaving the county in droves, demand would decrease and prices would go down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

Crown doesn’t really need to be built. There are enough high school space to accommodate some overcrowding high schools. All they need to do is just to slightly shift the boundaries.

They absolutely should do a real boundary adjustment ASAP. There will still need to be schools built but at least we’ll be at better utilization.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

Crown doesn’t really need to be built. There are enough high school space to accommodate some overcrowding high schools. All they need to do is just to slightly shift the boundaries.

They absolutely should do a real boundary adjustment ASAP. There will still need to be schools built but at least we’ll be at better utilization.

When the new buildings' opening dates are delayed, the boundary adjustments are delayed too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

Crown doesn’t really need to be built. There are enough high school space to accommodate some overcrowding high schools. All they need to do is just to slightly shift the boundaries.

They absolutely should do a real boundary adjustment ASAP. There will still need to be schools built but at least we’ll be at better utilization.

If Crown is not yet built, what changes would a boundary study likely bring?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Statewide changes in population suggest that people have been leaving Montgomery County: https://www.fox5dc.com/news/data-shows-montgomery-county-residents-are-leaving-for-frederick-county

You can see these changes reflected in schools as well - enrollment in many schools is dropping over time.

There was hope in the real estate market that rate cuts would start encouraging people to move, lowering prices, and ease the strain on the housing market. But those cuts are looking more in doubt due to inflation being stickier than expected.

I'm currently in the market for a new home in MoCo, and prices have spiked in the last two months for areas I'm interested in. In all likelihood, this buying season is going to be pretty bad, and supply will stay severely constrained. That means prices will remain high, and the number of new students enrolling is again likely to be diminished.

Meanwhile, BoE repeatedly delayed capital projects such as the development of Crown High School and the construction of Northwood high school. They are currently scheduled to be completed in 2027, but further delays would not be abnormal.

My question is: If this trend continues, and enrollment continues to drop at its current rate, or perhaps the trend accelerates, is there a risk that the student population will dwindle to the point that it no longer makes sense to build either of these projects?

I noticed that renovations to Cold Spring and Dufief Elementary were both planned at some point, delayed for around a decade, and then cancelled. I read on this forum that at least in Dufief's case, it was because overcrowding concerns at nearby school were alleviated on their own. So I would be curious to see if that might happen with larger capital projects too.

Crown doesn’t really need to be built. There are enough high school space to accommodate some overcrowding high schools. All they need to do is just to slightly shift the boundaries.

They absolutely should do a real boundary adjustment ASAP. There will still need to be schools built but at least we’ll be at better utilization.

If Crown is not yet built, what changes would a boundary study likely bring?

Relieve some of the overcrowding by moving kids to schools with open seats.

[Anonymous]

OP posted a Fox story from almost a year ago. Latest census data was from 2022

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountymaryland/

and showed a whopping <1% decline in MoCO from 2020, during which pandemic-related moves had seen a greater than typical shift to the exurbs. Meanwhile, the under-18 population trend was increasing.

With the usual references to taxes, etc., I'd hazard a guess that this is just an attempt to start a conversation in a particular direction. I mean, why provide public education at all, really, when all it does is make us pay, AMIRITE?

[Anonymous]

Northwood building is EOL and Blair up the street is overcapacity

[Anonymous]

hear me out .... they have to build Crown to not lose the land I believe?....so why not build it and shutdown Wootton until they finally decide they need the space and rebuild?

[Anonymous]

RM, QO, Northwest, and Gaithersburg will be overcrowded when Crown opens. As is Churchill. Only Wootton has space available in the area, but not nearly enough to relieve all the schools.

And yes, MCPS loses the land rights if they don't build Crown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They pulled a permit for Northwood construction. https://mocoshow.com/2024/01/19/198-million-permit-pulled-for-new-northwood-high-school-construction/

Both Northwood and Crown have the same completion date. So if crown permit hasn’t been pulled, does it mean crown cannot be completed by Aug 2027?

Northwood has to be demolished first. The usual build time for a school on a new site has been two years, so they still have time for Crown.

[Anonymous]

White flight in Montgomery County is real.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Rising prices imply steady or increasing demand for housing. If people were really leaving the county in droves, demand would decrease and prices would go down.

And yet the census shows a population decline and school enrollment is declining. It’s still possible to have rising prices amid declining population if there’s a supply/demand mismatch in certain segments or households are smaller.

[Anonymous]

Northwood is moving out of its building this June. Boxes to pack up stuff are being delivered soon. Classroom assignments have already been made for the Woodward building.
I think the ship has sailed and the Northwood construction will happen. The original building is in bad shape. The question is whether Northwood gets stuck at Woodward for longer than 3 years

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:RM, QO, Northwest, and Gaithersburg will be overcrowded when Crown opens. As is Churchill. Only Wootton has space available in the area, but not nearly enough to relieve all the schools.

And yes, MCPS loses the land rights if they don't build Crown.

What is the deadline to build Crown before MCPS loses the land rights?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:RM, QO, Northwest, and Gaithersburg will be overcrowded when Crown opens. As is Churchill. Only Wootton has space available in the area, but not nearly enough to relieve all the schools.

And yes, MCPS loses the land rights if they don't build Crown.

The projection for all these high schools are decreasing. For example, in last year CIP QO is projected to be 600+seats overcapacity but this year it’s only 400-500 seats. Gaithersburg is projected to reduce to 100+ seats overcapacity. It’s not surprising in 2027 there will be no overcrowding.
In addition, adjacent schools like Magruder, Watkins mill, Sherwood, etc are all under capacity. Moving some students there will address the overcrowding issue easily.