Could Crown High School and/or Northwood stall out?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you listen to the budget workshop from today, they say enrollment is down in every grade except 10 and 11. Who knows how long that will last and/or will it get worse?

I think it will get worse, at least for a while. I'm a current MoCo resident that had been preparing to move to one of a few Wootton feeding neighborhoods that I liked, but I had to change course and move outside the County instead.

Some of the neighborhoods I was looking at got pushed out of my price range at the 11th hour. I expected prices to increase, but not jump as hard as they have in the last few months.

There's other neighborhoods that I like which I can just barely afford, even with insane prices, but they are at significant risk of getting redistricted to schools that I'm not okay with.

A perceptive person earlier in this thread said "you buy the house, not the school", which is true. But if you gamble on boundaries and lose, your kids are the ones who lose out. If you look at which areas are seeing growth, you'll find very good schools where this is not an issue.

Meaning: your kids might have to go to a school with more poor kids.

-person whose second kid got rezoned to a "bad" school (50% FARMS) and we're happier with it than the "good" school (25% FARMS) the first kid went to

Poor kids don't value education like middle and upper class kids do so it's definitely a loss.

(As far as I can tell from DCUM (usual disclaimers apply), middle and upper class parents also don't value education. They value what you can buy with the education credentials, which is not at all the same thing.)

PotAto / potAHto. No one cares WHY their kids' peers are in school. They only care that they're not a danger or a distraction which poor kids are more often than middle and upper class kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Northwood is moving out of its building this June. Boxes to pack up stuff are being delivered soon. Classroom assignments have already been made for the Woodward building.
I think the ship has sailed and the Northwood construction will happen. The original building is in bad shape. The question is whether Northwood gets stuck at Woodward for longer than 3 years

I'm curious... for folks who've been tracking this, how common is it for MCPS construction projects to take longer than scheduled?

It is the norm

Okay, so since they're saying 3 years for Northwood construction to be completed, we should assume it will actually take at least 4, is that right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Northwood is moving out of its building this June. Boxes to pack up stuff are being delivered soon. Classroom assignments have already been made for the Woodward building.
I think the ship has sailed and the Northwood construction will happen. The original building is in bad shape. The question is whether Northwood gets stuck at Woodward for longer than 3 years

I'm curious... for folks who've been tracking this, how common is it for MCPS construction projects to take longer than scheduled?

It is the norm

Okay, so since they're saying 3 years for Northwood construction to be completed, we should assume it will actually take at least 4, is that right?

I wouldn't assume that, yet. They just changed it from 2 years to 3 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am looking at RMs future growth (according to at a glance) and it is only going up. Their renovation was cancelled several years back because of Crown. In a few years it will be 500 over capacity. Where are these decreases happening?

Do you think those projections are factoring in the insane costs of living increases that are continuing, at this very moment, with no sign of slowing down? Are they factoring in the second order derivative of the rate that upper middle class families are fleeing to nearby districts which offer very strong academics, better prices, and less drama? Will you pretend to be shocked when the projections are revised year after year?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am looking at RMs future growth (according to at a glance) and it is only going up. Their renovation was cancelled several years back because of Crown. In a few years it will be 500 over capacity. Where are these decreases happening?

Do you think those projections are factoring in the insane costs of living increases that are continuing, at this very moment, with no sign of slowing down? Are they factoring in the second order derivative of the rate that upper middle class families are fleeing to nearby districts which offer very strong academics, better prices, and less drama? Will you pretend to be shocked when the projections are revised year after year?

I work with Howard County parents. So much drama over boundary changes
..it makes MCPS parents look kaud back. Special Ed gripes too. They just dont post here much.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am looking at RMs future growth (according to at a glance) and it is only going up. Their renovation was cancelled several years back because of Crown. In a few years it will be 500 over capacity. Where are these decreases happening?

Do you think those projections are factoring in the insane costs of living increases that are continuing, at this very moment, with no sign of slowing down? Are they factoring in the second order derivative of the rate that upper middle class families are fleeing to nearby districts which offer very strong academics, better prices, and less drama? Will you pretend to be shocked when the projections are revised year after year?

I work with Howard County parents. So much drama over boundary changes
..it makes MCPS parents look kaud back. Special Ed gripes too. They just dont post here much.

The PP has a point that the house prices are getting very unaffordable now and then the county increased the property tax dramatically. Everyone is shocked to see their new property tax rate. These will just prevent people from moving here, therefore enrollment will not increase at the rate projected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am looking at RMs future growth (according to at a glance) and it is only going up. Their renovation was cancelled several years back because of Crown. In a few years it will be 500 over capacity. Where are these decreases happening?

Do you think those projections are factoring in the insane costs of living increases that are continuing, at this very moment, with no sign of slowing down? Are they factoring in the second order derivative of the rate that upper middle class families are fleeing to nearby districts which offer very strong academics, better prices, and less drama? Will you pretend to be shocked when the projections are revised year after year?

I work with Howard County parents. So much drama over boundary changes
..it makes MCPS parents look kaud back. Special Ed gripes too. They just dont post here much.

The PP has a point that the house prices are getting very unaffordable now and then the county increased the property tax dramatically. Everyone is shocked to see their new property tax rate. These will just prevent people from moving here, therefore enrollment will not increase at the rate projected.

Everything you said after "the house prices are getting very unaffordable now" is factually incorrect.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

The school district is MCPS.

Also, if you think Frederick County and Howard County are "slightly further out," that just says to me that you don't live in Montgomery County.

Also, MCPS should not set school boundaries based on what they believe "young, upper middle class families" might want.

Also, Montgomery County is not "bleeding population." How do we know this? Well, home prices, for one thing...

Other than that, though!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

The school district is MCPS.

Also, if you think Frederick County and Howard County are "slightly further out," that just says to me that you don't live in Montgomery County.

Also, MCPS should not set school boundaries based on what they believe "young, upper middle class families" might want.

Also, Montgomery County is not "bleeding population." How do we know this? Well, home prices, for one thing...

Other than that, though!

I do happen to live in Montgomery County at the moment.

Montgomery County is bleeding population. Look at the latest Census data for all the counties you listed.

Home prices are high because supply is very low.

As for not setting school boundaries based on what people want - I am not surprised to hear that. That is the opinion I expect MCPS to have as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Especially given the order of the 4 factors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

The school district is MCPS.

Also, if you think Frederick County and Howard County are "slightly further out," that just says to me that you don't live in Montgomery County.

Also, MCPS should not set school boundaries based on what they believe "young, upper middle class families" might want.

Also, Montgomery County is not "bleeding population." How do we know this? Well, home prices, for one thing...

Other than that, though!

I do happen to live in Montgomery County at the moment.

Montgomery County is bleeding population. Look at the latest Census data for all the counties you listed.

Home prices are high because supply is very low.

As for not setting school boundaries based on what people want - I am not surprised to hear that. That is the opinion I expect MCPS to have as well.

Home prices are high because supply is low compared to demand. That's Econ 101.

How can demand be higher than supply, if Montgomery County is "bleeding population"?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.