Could Crown High School and/or Northwood stall out?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

That is never, ever going to happen.

People who have no tolerance for the potential of school boundary changes would be more comfortable living in New Jersey or Massachusetts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You buy a home, OP, not a high school. Things can and will change.

Let's say hypothetically that you're an upper middle class family with young children. You are willing to pay to place them into to a great school district.

In your price range, you can afford a home zoned to a premier MCPS school. However, the only homes in your price range are in an area that could be rezoned - although there is no need for them to be.

Alternatively, you could buy a home slightly further out in a location where there is only one set of schools nearby - there is no risk of being redistricted out. The academics of these schools are neck and neck with the premier MCPS school. The homes are far less expensive.

Do you think it makes sense for this family to move to MoCo?

Do you think MoCo should care about attracting young, upper middle class families during a time where they are bleeding population?

With two new high schools being built, there is an actual need for multiple neighborhoods to be rezoned.

Some neighborhoods need to be rezoned, true. Others don't, and maybe they won't be. The current scope of redistricting plans is broad and vague, and this uncertainty is a considerable deterrent to choosing to raise a family in MoCo.

Exactly. I know people who are hesitating to buy houses here because of this uncertainty. They’re renting and also looking at other counties as options.

At this point, I'm not sure what alternative there is to uncertainty. It's simply too soon to know what the new boundaries will be. Once the options start being mapped out there will be less uncertainty, and then in 2026 there will be certainty.

An alternative would be a clarification of the scope of the boundary changes. A line in the sand of where you can buy a home and not worry about this. For example, "Nothing south of 28 will be touched".

That is never, ever going to happen.

People who have no tolerance for the potential of school boundary changes would be more comfortable living in New Jersey or Massachusetts.

I do have friends who moved to NJ last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP posted a Fox story from almost a year ago. Latest census data was from 2022

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountymaryland/

and showed a whopping <1% decline in MoCO from 2020, during which pandemic-related moves had seen a greater than typical shift to the exurbs. Meanwhile, the under-18 population trend was increasing.

With the usual references to taxes, etc., I'd hazard a guess that this is just an attempt to start a conversation in a particular direction. I mean, why provide public education at all, really, when all it does is make us pay, AMIRITE?

^^ Reminder to those viewing the posts that resurfaced in this thread talking about population decline and loosely referenced census data without linking it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP posted a Fox story from almost a year ago. Latest census data was from 2022

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountymaryland/

and showed a whopping <1% decline in MoCO from 2020, during which pandemic-related moves had seen a greater than typical shift to the exurbs. Meanwhile, the under-18 population trend was increasing.

With the usual references to taxes, etc., I'd hazard a guess that this is just an attempt to start a conversation in a particular direction. I mean, why provide public education at all, really, when all it does is make us pay, AMIRITE?

^^ Reminder to those viewing the posts that resurfaced in this thread talking about population decline and loosely referenced census data without linking it.

Montgomery County: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountymaryland/PST045222

Howard County: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/howardcountymaryland/PST045223

Frederick County: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/frederickcountymaryland/PST045222

And the raw numbers don't tell the whole story; you also need to look at demographic changes as well. And keep in mind that this is old data, and the economic pressures driving change have gotten worse since then, not better.

Another fun homework assignment is to:
- look at MoCo's enrollment projections for schools as of a few years back, and see what it projected for 3-5 years out at the time
- look at what the actual enrollment turned out to be for that timeframe

You'll find some very interesting stuff! But don't stop there:

- look at MoCo's new projections for the next 3-5 years out, as of today
- look at current home prices & property taxes

And think about the likelihood that MCPS is going to correctly predict what the future will look like.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP posted a Fox story from almost a year ago. Latest census data was from 2022

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountymaryland/

and showed a whopping <1% decline in MoCO from 2020, during which pandemic-related moves had seen a greater than typical shift to the exurbs. Meanwhile, the under-18 population trend was increasing.

With the usual references to taxes, etc., I'd hazard a guess that this is just an attempt to start a conversation in a particular direction. I mean, why provide public education at all, really, when all it does is make us pay, AMIRITE?

^^ Reminder to those viewing the posts that resurfaced in this thread talking about population decline and loosely referenced census data without linking it.

Montgomery County: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountymaryland/PST045222

Howard County: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/howardcountymaryland/PST045223

Frederick County: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/frederickcountymaryland/PST045222

And the raw numbers don't tell the whole story; you also need to look at demographic changes as well. And keep in mind that this is old data, and the economic pressures driving change have gotten worse since then, not better.

Yeah...that MoCo link is essentially the same and shows the <1% decrease in population...during the height of the Covid pandemic effects.

And the most relevany demographic change to student population is the under-18, where MoCo saw a large increase.

Another fun homework assignment is to:
- look at MoCo's enrollment projections for schools as of a few years back, and see what it projected for 3-5 years out at the time
- look at what the actual enrollment turned out to be for that timeframe

You'll find some very interesting stuff! But don't stop there:

- look at MoCo's new projections for the next 3-5 years out, as of today
- look at current home prices & property taxes

And think about the likelihood that MCPS is going to correctly predict what the future will look like.

The projections from pre-Covid to the actuals during Covid aren't exactly apples-to-apples. It will take a few more years to see whether the rebound from the marginal shifts to private & home schooling return the projections/actuals closer to the pre-pandemic baseline.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Anonymous

And think about the likelihood that MCPS is going to correctly predict what the future will look like.

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future. That's true for everybody, not just MCPS.

[Anonymous]

Previous poster, I don't really know how to juggle quotes to respond to your points, I don't think you really do either because I saw some of your text got cut off inside a quote. No, I am not trying to steer conversation towards private school. I am the original poster of this topic.

I'm commenting on what I've been seeing in the home buying process. In other school systems, the upper middle class is flocking in. In MCPS, at least in the schools I was originally targeting when I set out to buy a home, enrollment from these groups is dropping. In some of those schools it is dropping quickly.

There are clear reasons why I think this is happening, based on my experience and other people I've met & spoken with. I think the economic conditions of MoCo are not going to make a recovery easy, and I think this trend will continue. But you're right, nobody can see the future, we'll just have to wait.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Previous poster, I don't really know how to juggle quotes to respond to your points, I don't think you really do either because I saw some of your text got cut off inside a quote. No, I am not trying to steer conversation towards private school. I am the original poster of this topic.

I'm commenting on what I've been seeing in the home buying process. In other school systems, the upper middle class is flocking in. In MCPS, at least in the schools I was originally targeting when I set out to buy a home, enrollment from these groups is dropping. In some of those schools it is dropping quickly.

There are clear reasons why I think this is happening, based on my experience and other people I've met & spoken with. I think the economic conditions of MoCo are not going to make a recovery easy, and I think this trend will continue. But you're right, nobody can see the future, we'll just have to wait.

Since many of the "good" schools (i.e., schools were most of the students are from wealthy families) are over capacity, then if you're right, that's all to the good. It will also be good for making housing more affordable in Montgomery County.

[Anonymous]

*where