Anonymous wrote:When SS was first created, I believe there was about 155 people working and paying in to SS for every person eligible. Today the number is what? maybe 4? When I retire, the number will be maybe 3.5. It is unsustainable. Just like Medicare. Today and every day for the next 18 years, 10,000 baby boomers will become Medicare eligible. Ten thousdand every day. Unsustainable.
They've been "unsustainable" before. That's why the programs have been modified over the years. As it stands, SS would not have a shortfall for decades(I've seen years ranging from 2037 to 2042 usually), and at that point, it would still be receiving something like 87% of the revenue needed to sustain the benefits. And that assumes that nothing changes between then and now, an assumption that no one believes likely. We simply can't predict what will happen to the economy/government/markets/etc. over the next five years, let alone 20-30 years. Parts of Medicare will face the same issue sooner, where benefits outstrip revenue, but again, we aren't talking about going from fully funded to zero between one year and the next, only a difference of whether revenue will fully fund benefits.
For both programs, relatively minor changes(Such as Reagan's minor SS payroll tax increase back in the 80s, which extended SS by over 20 years) will extend the current estimates by 30-40 years, again, using the current numbers. I expect retirement age to keep creeping up as well, since people are living longer and staying healthier longer. To sum up, these "dire" warnings aren't really dire at all. No one believes the programs are perfect or can be sustained as they currently stand, but that doesn't mean an "all or nothing" mentality about the programs reflect the reality of the situation. They won't simply vanish in an instant.