Why is Maryland "Trending Poorly" on covidexit?

[Anonymous]

Is MD seeing a spike from July 4 now that it’s just past the two week point?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there are people here who don't think much of Covid Exit Strategy, but it is followed by many people online whom I respect.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

Maryland has consistently been in the red (even after they revised the criteria) for about the past week. Not even yellow.

A key criterion is new cases per million per day. We were at around 50 but today are at 90. When we get to 100, that's enough to put us on some state's quarantine lists!!

I am really concerned. Are we going to have to go back to Phase 1?

Indoor Dining and bars = Mask off, chew, talk, laugh.... expel droplets... Indoor A/C on full blast = super spread event

Close Indoor Dining and Bars now and have a national mask law

Yes, please to this.

[Anonymous]

Tuesday - Catch up day from weekday reporting; expect increases cases - and more significantly reporting on deaths.

MD state increase 1.09% - 860 cases
Moco increase - 0.53% - 87 cases

Baltimore City - 1.46% 139 cases
Baltimore County - 1.69% 166 cases
PG county - 0.86% 177 cases
Anne Arundal - 0.98% 59 cases (smaller population)

Problem continues to be in Baltimore area Note: impact of OC can be across state when return (worcester county numbers small)

Hospitalizations increased by 21. Trend in hospitalization in Moco has been steadily going down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Tuesday - Catch up day from weekday reporting; expect increases cases - and more significantly reporting on deaths.

MD state increase 1.09% - 860 cases
Moco increase - 0.53% - 87 cases

Baltimore City - 1.46% 139 cases
Baltimore County - 1.69% 166 cases
PG county - 0.86% 177 cases
Anne Arundal - 0.98% 59 cases (smaller population)

Problem continues to be in Baltimore area Note: impact of OC can be across state when return (worcester county numbers small)

Hospitalizations increased by 21. Trend in hospitalization in Moco has been steadily going down.

Numbers are small but at 7.37%, the positivity rate is still increasing and is the highest in the state.

MD hospitalization numbers are highest they've been in almost a month.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I know there are people here who don't think much of Covid Exit Strategy, but it is followed by many people online whom I respect.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

Maryland has consistently been in the red (even after they revised the criteria) for about the past week. Not even yellow.

A key criterion is new cases per million per day. We were at around 50 but today are at 90. When we get to 100, that's enough to put us on some state's quarantine lists!!

I am really concerned. Are we going to have to go back to Phase 1?

Now we are at 125 new cases per million per day. Not even a week later.

[Anonymous]

If they shutdown the daycares again I will lose my freaking mind.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If they shutdown the daycares again I will lose my freaking mind.

They won't. Hogan said himself that the cases are coming from bars and restaurants not complying with the restrictions.

We had another bad day today:

Hospitalizations up 21
Deaths up 20
Added 860 cases
Pos rate was flat (decreased .01).

So really we're roughly where we were a month ago. If it's true that cases are coming from those bars/restaurants, I think it's clear Hogan needs to shut down indoor dining and the bars. Keep outdoor dining. Then wait a few weeks and see how we do.

I really did like Hogan's response throughout this, but if he doesn't act soon, I'm going to start to lose respect for him. He needs to nip this in the bud before it gets worse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If they shutdown the daycares again I will lose my freaking mind.

They won't. Hogan said himself that the cases are coming from bars and restaurants not complying with the restrictions.

We had another bad day today:

Hospitalizations up 21
Deaths up 20
Added 860 cases
Pos rate was flat (decreased .01).

So really we're roughly where we were a month ago. If it's true that cases are coming from those bars/restaurants, I think it's clear Hogan needs to shut down indoor dining and the bars. Keep outdoor dining. Then wait a few weeks and see how we do.

I really did like Hogan's response throughout this, but if he doesn't act soon, I'm going to start to lose respect for him. He needs to nip this in the bud before it gets worse.

Covid is clearly rebounding for us. Ugh...

https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

[Anonymous]

Sorry, I was wrong about today's numbers. The website hadn't totally updated when I looked.

Cases added: 627
Pos rate flat
Deaths: 4
Hospitalizations up 21

Still not terrific.

[Anonymous]

Wednesday data update:

Note: In a week of bad news, not every trend is terrible Note data tends to stabilize by Wednesday post weekend, tuesday spikes.


Moco case increase: 73 cases, 0.44% increase, week on week steady, aligns with Gayles analysis he told press yesterday (local news stations)
State increase Tuesday, 627 cases, 0.79% (these are down from Tuesday's numbers of 860 and 1.09% increase)

Baltimore County 159 cases, 1.59% increase - still trending poorly
Baltimore City 94 cases, 0.97% increase, need more days of data to see if improvement
PG -91 cases 0.44% increase, they are steady
Howard - remains a watch, numbers up and down, today +21 cases, 0.66% increase


Deaths steady for MD 4+
Hospitalizations - 505, +21 change - problematic
ICU - 137, + 6
Moco continue to decline week on week averages on hospitalizations, ICUs with daily variations

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

10 days later: We've gone from 110 new cases per day to 127 new cases per day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My concern is that to get over this thing and return to some kind of normal, we really need to be at 30 new cases per million or fewer (hopefully fewer) consistently.

And we are nowhere near that.

And we are trending up not down.

And in just a few weeks we will be returning college kids to campus at the U of MD in College Park. So I don't see how cases in Prince George's county will possibly go DOWN when that happens.

So when does Prince Georges County get put back on Phase or Stage 1 (all non essential activities shut down again)?

When does Maryland?

I'm just wondering because according to NYS we will soon be one of the states that will be on their quarantine list, if we stay about 100 new cases per day per million (10 new cases per day per 100,000) if this keeps up for a 7 day everage.

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced that three additional states meet the metrics to qualify for the travel advisory requiring individuals who have traveled to New York from those states, all of which have significant community spread, to quarantine for 14 days. The newly-added states are Delaware, Kansas and Oklahoma. The quarantine applies to any person arriving from a state with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day rolling average or a state with a 10 percent or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average.

It's not a good sign for our state.

Actually they apparently tested students and staff on campus now and less than 1% were positive. If the colleges and universities can get the students to wear their masks, we could end up in a better place.

[Anonymous]

July 15 2020




July 26 2020



We keep testing more and more, but our positivity rate is going up and our number of cases is also going up.

[Anonymous]

Look at what MA just did and tell me in what world any of it makes sense. How is a New Yorker 15 minutes from the PA line, any safer than an individual 15 minutes into PA from the NY line? Yet the New Yorker can be declared covid free enough to travel and stay in MA, but the PA plate person? Fines and quarantine.

I know a couple in NY who want to visit MA beaches for vacation. One has been working out of the home throughout the pandemic, her spouse has a medical condition that has put him in and out of hospitals, medical facilities, often on a weekly basis. They are fine to go to MA, but a couple in PA who has strictly observed isolation rules are not? Please!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look at what MA just did and tell me in what world any of it makes sense. How is a New Yorker 15 minutes from the PA line, any safer than an individual 15 minutes into PA from the NY line? Yet the New Yorker can be declared covid free enough to travel and stay in MA, but the PA plate person? Fines and quarantine.

I know a couple in NY who want to visit MA beaches for vacation. One has been working out of the home throughout the pandemic, her spouse has a medical condition that has put him in and out of hospitals, medical facilities, often on a weekly basis. They are fine to go to MA, but a couple in PA who has strictly observed isolation rules are not? Please!

These are not meant to be rules that guarantee with 100% certainty that someone is not infected. But they are designed to reduce spread between large populations.

It is not practical to make restrictions on people on an individual basis.

If it comes to that level, the best thing to do it just require 14 day quarantine for everyone.