Why is Maryland "Trending Poorly" on covidexit?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are beginning to see the results of all the July 4th holiday weekend parties, gatherings, and beach vacations.

Not too mention 5 straight weeks of daily protests in our area.

Think THAT might have a little more to do with the numbers than the people who went to watch fireworks, hmmmm?

Depends on how much masking was going on at each.

The daily ones I saw with teens - while only about 75-100 and no masks. Not one.

And when were those, exactly?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Protesters. That’s why.

You can’t have hundreds of people together in a riotous, violent mob and not expect transmissions. It’s the perfect environment for it.

Protesters were told to get tested and every one I know was negative. Masks + outdoors helps.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Three days later:




Our positivity rate is still around 5% which isn't that bad (2% would be better) and it seems like we are doing enough testing. But our new cases per million per day (which used to be down in the 60s 2 weeks ago) keeps rising, and now it is about 100!!

We aren't trending in a downward direction at all.


Just to compare stats: this is NJ




/quote]

[Anonymous]

The main issues are in Baltimore County, Baltimore City, and PG. Also counties like Anne Arundel, while small counties, trending up. These counties have percent daily increases above the state daily increases. Given population (except Anne Arundel) have big impact on state number. Today's increase in case numbers are B Country - 141 + case, B City 143+, PG 123+. For small county, AA +89 cases. Been consistent the past few weeks, The likely more troubling issue are the demographics of some of counties are likely riskier populations - but have not searched that data.

Yes, Moco has shown a slight case increase, but average over weeks is not bad, testing significantly increased, and on a very large population base (larger than other counties). However, I am glad, Moco is increasing free testing capacity in riskier zip codes and those less likely to get tests.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The main issues are in Baltimore County, Baltimore City, and PG. Also counties like Anne Arundel, while small counties, trending up. These counties have percent daily increases above the state daily increases. Given population (except Anne Arundel) have big impact on state number. Today's increase in case numbers are B Country - 141 + case, B City 143+, PG 123+. For small county, AA +89 cases. Been consistent the past few weeks, The likely more troubling issue are the demographics of some of counties are likely riskier populations - but have not searched that data.

Where do you find new cases, per day, by county?

Baltimore County 141/827,000 = 170 new cases per million per day

Baltimore city 143/620,000 = 230 new cases per million per day

PG 123/909,000 = 135 new cases per million per day

AA = 89/580,000= 153 new cases per million per day

MoCo = ??? / 1,000,000 = ???

[Anonymous]

My concern is that to get over this thing and return to some kind of normal, we really need to be at 30 new cases per million or fewer (hopefully fewer) consistently.

And we are nowhere near that.

And we are trending up not down.

And in just a few weeks we will be returning college kids to campus at the U of MD in College Park. So I don't see how cases in Prince George's county will possibly go DOWN when that happens.

So when does Prince Georges County get put back on Phase or Stage 1 (all non essential activities shut down again)?

When does Maryland?

I'm just wondering because according to NYS we will soon be one of the states that will be on their quarantine list, if we stay about 100 new cases per day per million (10 new cases per day per 100,000) if this keeps up for a 7 day everage.

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced that three additional states meet the metrics to qualify for the travel advisory requiring individuals who have traveled to New York from those states, all of which have significant community spread, to quarantine for 14 days. The newly-added states are Delaware, Kansas and Oklahoma. The quarantine applies to any person arriving from a state with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day rolling average or a state with a 10 percent or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average.

It's not a good sign for our state.

[Anonymous]

Repeating the question for the PP in case it got lost:

Where can I find the data on new cases, per county, per day?

I haven't been able to find that information on the MD Covid website. Just cumulative cases per county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Repeating the question for the PP in case it got lost:

Where can I find the data on new cases, per county, per day?

I haven't been able to find that information on the MD Covid website. Just cumulative cases per county.

I am a data scientist so Its a bit of a hobby that I track the data manually each day from the md gov site for state and Moco so I see the trends. When I saw things were changing for MD at state level, but Moco was not bad I started to look at what was driving it and started tracking the other big counties.

However if you go to the MD gis system you can download the data in spreadsheet for most of metrics by date including county cases

https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

A day later:





This doesn't seem good to me. Could someone tell me what we are doing in MD to make the trend go in the reverse direction?

Seriously? You opened up casinos, indoor dining, gyms, and bars. Pretty much every state that opened up the bars is seeing cases rise. It's not actually rocket science. Anytime you have an indoor space where a group of people is spending more than 15 minutes without masks -- so any place where people are eating and drinking -- you could have substantial transmission.

+1000000

In NYC, where their positivity rate is much lower they still won't be opening indoor restaurants, bars or malls. They're being smart and Hogan is stupidly gambling with the cases here to try to make some businesses happy. It might help in the short term but will ultimately cause more $ problems for all businesses if we have to shut down. MD needs to backtrack just a bit now to prevent us from having to shut down everything in a few weeks.

Cases are going up among young people in NYC, as well. It's happening everywhere.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/07/14/new-coronavirus-cases-shift-to-manhattan-and-brooklyn-neighborhoods-1300663

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

A day later:





This doesn't seem good to me. Could someone tell me what we are doing in MD to make the trend go in the reverse direction?

Seriously? You opened up casinos, indoor dining, gyms, and bars. Pretty much every state that opened up the bars is seeing cases rise. It's not actually rocket science. Anytime you have an indoor space where a group of people is spending more than 15 minutes without masks -- so any place where people are eating and drinking -- you could have substantial transmission.

+1000000

In NYC, where their positivity rate is much lower they still won't be opening indoor restaurants, bars or malls. They're being smart and Hogan is stupidly gambling with the cases here to try to make some businesses happy. It might help in the short term but will ultimately cause more $ problems for all businesses if we have to shut down. MD needs to backtrack just a bit now to prevent us from having to shut down everything in a few weeks.

Cases are going up among young people in NYC, as well. It's happening everywhere.

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/07/14/new-coronavirus-cases-shift-to-manhattan-and-brooklyn-neighborhoods-1300663

NYC’s seven day rolling average is still well under 2%. I think for for July it’s been hovering at 1.3%. That’s really damn good for the most crowded city in the country.

If they continue, they will be able to open schools.

I think it’s smart that Como is opting not to open bars and malls.

[Anonymous]

NY’s #s are looking good

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-updates-new-yorkers-states-progress-during-covid-19-pandemic-12

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Repeating the question for the PP in case it got lost:

Where can I find the data on new cases, per county, per day?

I haven't been able to find that information on the MD Covid website. Just cumulative cases per county.

I am a data scientist so Its a bit of a hobby that I track the data manually each day from the md gov site for state and Moco so I see the trends. When I saw things were changing for MD at state level, but Moco was not bad I started to look at what was driving it and started tracking the other big counties.

However if you go to the MD gis system you can download the data in spreadsheet for most of metrics by date including county cases

https://data.imap.maryland.gov/search?q=COVID-19

Thanks!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Protesters. That’s why.

You can’t have hundreds of people together in a riotous, violent mob and not expect transmissions. It’s the perfect environment for it.

Protesters were told to get tested and every one I know was negative. Masks + outdoors helps.

That is true for DS and his large group that went protesting, several times. DS is negative, two tests, and all of his friends are negative. I think we can see that outdoor transmission is not that great.

[Anonymous]

OK data scientist -- can you check my math?

I would put Frederick County on your watch list. They had 40 new cases in a day with a population of 260,000.

That's 153 new cases per million per day.

Harford County added 29 new cases. Population 255,000

That's 113 new cases per million per day.

Howard County went up 57 cases. Population 325,000

That's 175 new cases per million per day.

St Mary's County went up 11 cases, population 113,000

That's 98 new cases per million per day.

We have a lot of counties over 100 new cases per million per day it seems? Not just PG and Baltimore....

I wish the county data were easily available.

[Anonymous]

And Garett County, while it only had 3 new cases yesterday -- only has a population of 30,000

so that translates to 100 new cases per million per day. It's a lot of new cases for a small county, isn't it?