Fierce competition for Fall 2021 admissions, if lots of current seniors defer?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To the contrary, class of 2021 will see higher admission rate because colleges need to make up for the revenue shortfall.

They won't allow more than the typical deferrals for 2020 either. They have a big revenue shortfall in 2020. If any, they will move more students off waitlist for 2020 to make up the lost revenue.

This isn't what I'm hearing. Most colleges (especially the top ones) are being very lenient with deferrals.

Johns Hopkins is losing $100M this year and $375M next fiscal year. Carnegie Mellon is losing $28M. All top colleges are losing significant revenues this year and beyond. The number of paying slots in 2020 and 2021 can only increase to make them solvent. If they do allow more deferrals they will have to make up the shortfall by moving the waitlist.

Well, sure, but colleges don't mind moving the waitlist.

* students admitted off the waitlist won't be any less academically prepared, just slightly different demographics maybe
* less work to do for next year admissions since a large portion of the class is already pre-admitted from 2020

Once again, losers are not colleges or seniors from 2020. The losers in this game are juniors set to graduate in 2021 who will need to apply to effectively smaller universities.

This does not make any sense.

You are saying parents of 2020 are expected to shoulder two years of colleges' budget. What makes parents of 2020 so specially rich? Colleges need revenue. They need to maximize the number of their paying customers. If anything, they will admit more not less in 2021.

PP here. I think my writing was not clear somewhere.

Let's do a concrete example.

Let's stay TOP 20 SLAC admits 2000 students per year (I don't have a specific school in mind, just making a mental model). Given that 2020 is this crazy year, out of the 2000 admits, 500 American choose to defer. From what I am seeing from friends etc, 1 in 4 is the minimum I would anticipate for deferrals. International students are highly uncertain. Naturally, 200 international students decline to come as they have no way to enter the country.

So TOP 20 SLAC is left with 1300 students who are committed. It then takes top 700 students off the wait list. Those 700 students are a little less spectacular that the students accepted, but really given that 20,000 applied, the next 700 off the waitlist are just fine. College goes on without a hitch with 1300 initially admitted students and 700 waitlisted students.

For 2021, the first 500 students are already admitted to Top 20 SLAC, or perhaps 700 if international travel is now allowed and those 200 international students decide to go back to Top 20 SLAC college in the USA. That leaves the Juniors from from 2021 to apply for 1300-1500 slots, not the usual 2000 that would be available

Is that more clear?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, sure, but colleges don't mind moving the waitlist.

* students admitted off the waitlist won't be any less academically prepared, just slightly different demographics maybe
* less work to do for next year admissions since a large portion of the class is already pre-admitted from 2020

Once again, losers are not colleges or seniors from 2020. The losers in this game are juniors set to graduate in 2021 who will need to apply to effectively smaller universities.

This does not make any sense.

You are saying parents of 2020 are expected to shoulder two years of colleges' budget. What makes parents of 2020 so specially rich? Colleges need revenue. They need to maximize the number of their paying customers. If anything, they will admit more not less in 2021.

Not the PP, but between both of your posts, maybe the losers are 2021 applicants who need financial aid. 2020 families electing to defer need to make sure all financial aid/scholarships remain in place (which one would expect). Full payers are the winners?

This is my guess as well. If they are lenient with deferrals they are going to really need class of 2021 (and probably 2022 at least) to be full pay. I wouldn't defer for my kid. I don't want them to lose their education momentum. I do understand why people are nervous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, sure, but colleges don't mind moving the waitlist.

* students admitted off the waitlist won't be any less academically prepared, just slightly different demographics maybe
* less work to do for next year admissions since a large portion of the class is already pre-admitted from 2020

Once again, losers are not colleges or seniors from 2020. The losers in this game are juniors set to graduate in 2021 who will need to apply to effectively smaller universities.

This does not make any sense.

You are saying parents of 2020 are expected to shoulder two years of colleges' budget. What makes parents of 2020 so specially rich? Colleges need revenue. They need to maximize the number of their paying customers. If anything, they will admit more not less in 2021.

Not the PP, but between both of your posts, maybe the losers are 2021 applicants who need financial aid. 2020 families electing to defer need to make sure all financial aid/scholarships remain in place (which one would expect). Full payers are the winners?

This is my guess as well. If they are lenient with deferrals they are going to really need class of 2021 (and probably 2022 at least) to be full pay. I wouldn't defer for my kid. I don't want them to lose their education momentum. I do understand why people are nervous.

Exactly. The colleges will already have financial commitments to the 2020 deferring students. If that's a significant number of students (and I'm not sure I'm ready to assume that it is), going into ED, it's not hard to imagine that the college will need full payers who are ready and willing to commit.

Where this falls apart for me a bit is the need-blind aspect. Perhaps it's true that need is gauged from other factors in spite of the chinese-wall between the financial aid office and admissions.

[Anonymous]

Yes, in 2021 and probably 2022 it will be highly advantageous to be full pay.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:To reiterate - I don't resent the colleges from doing what they need, or the parents of 2020 seniors for looking out for their own kids.

I am just thinking to how better position my 2021 Junior who will have reduced college opportunities.

Finally, a sane person.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just a guess, but I imagine admission offices might have some hard number of deferments they are not willing to go over. First come, first served sort of approach. Those 2020 who want to defer should get that done ASAP.

Hopefully we'll know more next week perhaps, for schools with May 1 deadlines.

I was speaking with a relative about this. She is a VP for a very well-known and respected university with a >10% acceptance rate. The colleges and universities will only allow a limited number of deferrals. It is a decision they make for financial reasons. Like all businesses, they need the revenue for this upcoming year, not the year after. They aren't going to hold a vast number of student slots open for 1.5 years from now. That would be like Amazon saying, 'Sure, it's fine. We'll hold your TP for you and deliver it in 1.5 years when you're ready to pay.' Nope, not gonna happen.

My DD is in at 3 schools with >10% admit and has talked to them each about deferring. None of them have a problem with it and all have said they have greatly expanded this option for admitted students knowing the uncertainty of the times. She has accepted 1 deferment already and may do another in a few weeks.

How is it possible to accept more than one deferment? Most colleges require an enrollment deposit before deferring, which can only be done at one school. (Some colleges require additional deposits during the coming year, 1-5k)

PP here -- both schools have a less than $500 deposit to enroll.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PP here -- both schools have a less than $500 deposit to enroll.

Double depositing can lead to all offers being withdrawn per the Common App signature page, if discovered. However, one can deposit, then change her mind and withdraw at the first school to enroll at a second school.

[Anonymous]

So in light of all of the above, trying to best position 2021 junior who is: full pay, URM, >1500 SAT, lower-than-typical GPA. From where things were prior to coronavirus, a couple of T30s were the reaches for a potential ED. Does the full payer consider aiming higher than they were originally?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, in 2021 and probably 2022 it will be highly advantageous to be full pay.

Well, that's good news.

- Parent of Class of '22 B student

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I assume that, if lots of seniors defer and hold places for next year, there will be fewer slots for next year's applicants. Right?

Colleges and universities will only hold so many spots. Period.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I assume that, if lots of seniors defer and hold places for next year, there will be fewer slots for next year's applicants. Right?

Colleges and universities will only hold so many spots. Period.

This makes sense but isn't what they're currently telling students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, in 2021 and probably 2022 it will be highly advantageous to be full pay.

Well, that's good news.

- Parent of Class of '22 B student

Good for you. No, seriously, good for you for making that much money! I never figured out how.

- Parent of a Class of '21 A student, EFC 40K. I guess our State Flagship will always be a great choice. Sigh.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I assume that, if lots of seniors defer and hold places for next year, there will be fewer slots for next year's applicants. Right?

Colleges and universities will only hold so many spots. Period.

This makes sense but isn't what they're currently telling students.

I spoke to a few professors. Their plan is exactly as I outlined above - admit off wait list in 2020 to compensate for deferrals, and effectively screw class of '21 by letting all the deferrals simply enroll as freshmen in '21. Saves on admission staff, too - a quarter of admission of is already done, if not more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To reiterate - I don't resent the colleges from doing what they need, or the parents of 2020 seniors for looking out for their own kids.

I am just thinking to how better position my 2021 Junior who will have reduced college opportunities.

Finally, a sane person.

I've got a junior now and if the current mostly defer to 2022 then I will have a serious talk with my kid about going to community college. I think that the on campus experience at a 4 year university can be absolutely wonderful but when kids wind up "accepted" and placed in triple and even quadruple rooms and many of their classes are online anyway...what is the point?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So in light of all of the above, trying to best position 2021 junior who is: full pay, URM, >1500 SAT, lower-than-typical GPA. From where things were prior to coronavirus, a couple of T30s were the reaches for a potential ED. Does the full payer consider aiming higher than they were originally?

I would aim the same as before for ED. You will have things both going for you and against you (full pay is a plus, effectively smaller class size is a minus, URM is always a plus before or after Corona, SAT/GPA is a wash here). Hope it helps.