Reply to Fierce competition for Fall 2021 admissions, if lots of current seniors defer?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]To the contrary, class of 2021 will see higher admission rate because colleges need to make up for the revenue shortfall.

[b]They won't allow more than the typical deferrals for 2020 either. [/b]They have a big revenue shortfall in 2020. If any, they will move more students off waitlist for 2020 to make up the lost revenue.[/quote]

This isn't what I'm hearing.  Most colleges (especially the top ones) are being very lenient with deferrals.  [/quote]

Johns Hopkins is losing $100M this year and $375M next fiscal year. Carnegie Mellon is losing $28M. All top colleges are losing significant revenues this year and beyond. The number of paying slots in 2020 and 2021 can only increase to make them solvent. If they do allow more deferrals they will have to make up the shortfall by moving the waitlist.[/quote]

Well, sure, but colleges don't mind moving the waitlist.

*  students admitted off the waitlist won't be any less academically prepared, just slightly different demographics maybe
*  less work to do for next year admissions since a large portion of the class is already pre-admitted from 2020

Once again, losers are not colleges or seniors from 2020.  The losers in this game are juniors set to graduate in 2021 who will need to apply to effectively smaller universities.[/quote]

This does not make any sense.

You are saying parents of 2020 are expected to shoulder two years of colleges' budget. What makes parents of 2020 so specially rich? Colleges need revenue. They need to maximize the number of their paying customers. If anything, they will admit more not less in 2021.[/quote]

PP here.  I think my writing was not clear somewhere.

Let's do a concrete example.

Let's stay TOP 20 SLAC admits 2000 students per year (I don't have a specific school in mind, just making a mental model).  Given that 2020 is this crazy year, out of the 2000 admits, 500 American choose to defer.  From what I am seeing from friends etc, 1 in 4 is the minimum I would anticipate for deferrals.  International students are highly uncertain.  Naturally, 200 international students decline to come as they have no way to enter the country.

So TOP 20 SLAC is left with 1300 students who are committed.  It then takes top 700 students off the wait list.  Those 700 students are a little less spectacular that the students accepted, but really given that 20,000 applied, the next 700 off the waitlist are just fine.  College goes on without a hitch with 1300 initially admitted students and 700 waitlisted students.

For 2021, the first 500 students are already admitted to Top 20 SLAC, or perhaps 700 if international travel is now allowed and those 200 international students decide to go back to Top 20 SLAC college in the USA.  That leaves the Juniors from from 2021 to apply for 1300-1500 slots, not the usual 2000 that would be available

Is that more clear?[/quote]

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