ripple effects from government employment/contracting uncertainty in DMV economy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:I go to the same weekly fitness class in my neighborhood (not by the downtown offices) and its been getting emptier for the last 3 weeks. I would not be surprised if they run a class pack promotion soon. I'm sure it is a combination of RTO and people pulling back on discretionary spending.

People are showing up for work.

I think you meant to say "People are commuting to the office". Which means that instead of being able to go to a fitness class in their neighborhood before getting online for the day, they are now spending that time sitting in the car or on the metro.

I’m not OP, but as a former fed- many (most if not all) of my colleagues did things like work out in the middle of the work day.

I am someone who works out on mid day maybe 2-3 x/month.

This is usually when I’m flexing out for an extended lunch break. Or I need to take off early anyway (e.g. I volunteer to help run an after school activity at my kids’ school on Fridays, alternating with another parent). So on the Fridays I know I need to take off early, I will work 7-12 and then do a noon exercise class.

It’s my personal time. I get my work done with outstanding PACS ratings.

Why is getting in some mid day exercise even an issue?

[Anonymous]

Sorry meant 12:30 exercise class. I take off at noon to get changed/make it on time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I go to the same weekly fitness class in my neighborhood (not by the downtown offices) and its been getting emptier for the last 3 weeks. I would not be surprised if they run a class pack promotion soon. I'm sure it is a combination of RTO and people pulling back on discretionary spending.

People are showing up for work.

I think you meant to say "People are commuting to the office". Which means that instead of being able to go to a fitness class in their neighborhood before getting online for the day, they are now spending that time sitting in the car or on the metro.

I’m not OP, but as a former fed- many (most if not all) of my colleagues did things like work out in the middle of the work day.

I am someone who works out on mid day maybe 2-3 x/month.

This is usually when I’m flexing out for an extended lunch break. Or I need to take off early anyway (e.g. I volunteer to help run an after school activity at my kids’ school on Fridays, alternating with another parent). So on the Fridays I know I need to take off early, I will work 7-12 and then do a noon exercise class.

It’s my personal time. I get my work done with outstanding PACS ratings.

Why is getting in some mid day exercise even an issue?

because we are supposed to be catheterized and handcuffed to our desks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the suburbs will hurt for a few years. Neighbors and friends around me in MoCo have already been laid off or furloughed from gov contracting jobs. All the fast casual and similar restaurants that have opened around me will not be able to survive if all the feds go back to DC (one of the things I think is forgotten in the hand wringing about DC losing revenue from the telework is that the surrounding areas have boomed, and you can’t magically gain in one area without losing in the other). My hair salon place has canceled a plan to bring 2 new stylists on while they see how things go — I know my stylist had at least two cancelations this week due to Trump because they were personal friends. I assume there is more of this going on.
Bottom line: I expect my local economy to get worse, and I also expect Marylands budget problems to get worse as a result of all this. Tough years ahead in MoCo, I’d say.

Geez, people need to hear more anecdotal stories like this. It's happening so quickly people are starting to pivot. I have two kids in private. Am keeping the high schooler in but pulling out my elementary school kid for public school - hopefully with the defunct Department of Education - he won't end up too dumb.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Make those folks get a teaching certificate and get them into schools to teach. teaching shortage and especially of people in STEAM subjects.

Are you serious? For an awful low paying job? No thanks.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

My friends in employment law locally have their phones ringing off the hook right now.

Calls, yes. Lots of Feds paying retainers? Unlikely.

Deregulation means a lot less work for the DC firms. Companies don’t need help complying with regulations that have been eliminated. We were about to hire a firm for a ton of regulatory work but Trump blocked the new requirements so no need now.

Regulatory work is just not a big part of BigLaw anywhere. It’s only like 5% of business. Transaction and corporate litigation is 90%+ of all BigLaw.

Both of which entail lots of regulatory work.

What are you talking about? Transaction work is writing IPO prospectuses, share purchase agreements, etc.

Are you claiming you won’t have to make SEC filings anymore?

Litigation is companies suing each other over contractual disputes or class action lawsuits against companies…again, I don’t see anything restricting corporate litigation.

Regulatory compliance is regulatory work. Bid disputes are regulatory work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Make those folks get a teaching certificate and get them into schools to teach. teaching shortage and especially of people in STEAM subjects.

Are you serious? For an awful low paying job? No thanks.

It takes years of training and money for credentials to get certified to teach. I don't see the Trump admin offering re-skilling of workers. The DMV economy is going to go into a tailspin as Trump guts agencies. For every federal worker, there's likely 3 or 4 businesses with contractors/vendors/service providers who will suffer as their agencies are decimated. We are a one-fed household and are already cutting back on summer camps for the kids, travel plans, kid activities, gym membership and non-essential but smart to have home repairs. We'll also cancel our 2x monthly cleaner and curtail restaurant spending. And that's just the beginning. If this continued destruction of the federal government continues, we'll eventually sell our home in the not so far away burbs, and move somewhere far cheaper with one parent having a hella long commute.

[Anonymous]

idk I was informed that schools are so in need of teachers that they would happy to hire you in you have any sort of advanced degree, and allow you to do some sort of credentialing while you work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:idk I was informed that schools are so in need of teachers that they would happy to hire you in you have any sort of advanced degree, and allow you to do some sort of credentialing while you work.

yes, do show us informed one, the school districts that are offering FT teaching positions with benefits to completely uncredentialed, inexperienced adults.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Make those folks get a teaching certificate and get them into schools to teach. teaching shortage and especially of people in STEAM subjects.

Are you serious? For an awful low paying job? No thanks.

Hey! DCPS teachers often make over $100,000!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:idk I was informed that schools are so in need of teachers that they would happy to hire you in you have any sort of advanced degree, and allow you to do some sort of credentialing while you work.

yes, do show us informed one, the school districts that are offering FT teaching positions with benefits to completely uncredentialed, inexperienced adults.

I'm saying this is something being encouraged by MCPS teachers. And lots of feds are very well-credentialed. Isn't there a teacher shortage?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Make those folks get a teaching certificate and get them into schools to teach. teaching shortage and especially of people in STEAM subjects.

ask this person.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Make those folks get a teaching certificate and get them into schools to teach. teaching shortage and especially of people in STEAM subjects.

Are you serious? For an awful low paying job? No thanks.

It takes years of training and money for credentials to get certified to teach. I don't see the Trump admin offering re-skilling of workers. The DMV economy is going to go into a tailspin as Trump guts agencies. For every federal worker, there's likely 3 or 4 businesses with contractors/vendors/service providers who will suffer as their agencies are decimated. We are a one-fed household and are already cutting back on summer camps for the kids, travel plans, kid activities, gym membership and non-essential but smart to have home repairs. We'll also cancel our 2x monthly cleaner and curtail restaurant spending. And that's just the beginning. If this continued destruction of the federal government continues, we'll eventually sell our home in the not so far away burbs, and move somewhere far cheaper with one parent having a hella long commute.

If this area becomes cheaper then why would you move far away for slightly cheaper?

[Anonymous]

If we ignore all the political noise and MAGA "revenge cutting" and PJ25 and AI and other stuff that fuels talks about DC area apocalypse, what else remains?
From purely CAPITALIST perspective does it make sense to trash an entire prosperous metro area with already developed 1st class amenities, a bunch of new luxury housing, shiny condos, new transit lines, well developed urban grid of DC and abundant office space, multiple suburban office parks and healthcare facilities, decent schools, and overall positioning of the city in a central mid Atlantic position with mild 4-seasons weather and major universities and tech corridor and 2 major airports, etc, etc?

It's like spending a lot of money to invest into an area only to throw it away? Wouldn't it be rather wasteful and inefficient?
Capitalism would at least repurpose it.

Although I doubt the tax dollars American taxpayers believe DC stole from them have been invested IN DC, or it would look like Singapore A few opulent mansions in the "potomac rivera" don't count

[Anonymous]

This new EO will complete destroy the economy in the DC metro and the US at large. Requiring that agencies get rid of 4 employees for every 1 employee they hire. This rule basically mandates that government agencies reduce their staff by 8% each year. In combination with mass scale RIFs you are easily looking at a 30-50% decline in the federal workforce. In combination with the proposed budget cuts of 250 billion per year, you are looking at job losses in excess of 3 million people for the US. This does not even consider the spillover effects of employed people cutting back on spending due to lower consumer confidence. It will be an unmitigated economic disaster that is completely self inflicted.