ripple effects from government employment/contracting uncertainty in DMV economy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

I don’t know these firms, so just the messenger but they list McDermitt Will as one.

Unfortunately, I ran out of free articles for the month.

There is some of firms that signed leases pre-Covid going smaller because of hybrid…though it seems like folks with large lobbying practices are following the fed lead and 5 day RTO.

Yes, lots of empty older buildings…but it’s a bullish sign that firms are willing to pay massive premiums for the nicest newest digs that apparently are now reducing incentives because they are filling up quick.

[Anonymous]

I live in Silver Spring. Lots of feds who are uncertain about their future. Even if they don’t get fired / RIF’d, they question the point of working for an agency whose heads want to undermine the mission (eg, EPA or HHS).

One canary I’m seeing: houses in my neighborhood used to get scooped up in days. No longer. Houses sitting for weeks and many more of them than I can recall being for sale this time of year - literally five or six in the blocks near me …. There weren’t that many at one time during the spring, which is usually the high point for sales in my community. People who can are leaving the area. It’s sad and I worry it will absolutely gut communities like mine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I live in Silver Spring. Lots of feds who are uncertain about their future. Even if they don’t get fired / RIF’d, they question the point of working for an agency whose heads want to undermine the mission (eg, EPA or HHS).

One canary I’m seeing: houses in my neighborhood used to get scooped up in days. No longer. Houses sitting for weeks and many more of them than I can recall being for sale this time of year - literally five or six in the blocks near me …. There weren’t that many at one time during the spring, which is usually the high point for sales in my community. People who can are leaving the area. It’s sad and I worry it will absolutely gut communities like mine.

Been looking for similar signs in Upper NW DC but so far two homes were under contract in less than 2 weeks. One is a complete remodel that had to drop their asking price by a decent amount (which they did quickly)...but still seems to be under contract for more than I would expect.

The other is for $3MM and under contract within a week. That one surprises me because even in Upper NW DC you don't see many homes listed for $3MM.

There is literally only one home for sale right now in like a 3/4 mile radius of where we are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I live in Silver Spring. Lots of feds who are uncertain about their future. Even if they don’t get fired / RIF’d, they question the point of working for an agency whose heads want to undermine the mission (eg, EPA or HHS).

One canary I’m seeing: houses in my neighborhood used to get scooped up in days. No longer. Houses sitting for weeks and many more of them than I can recall being for sale this time of year - literally five or six in the blocks near me …. There weren’t that many at one time during the spring, which is usually the high point for sales in my community. People who can are leaving the area. It’s sad and I worry it will absolutely gut communities like mine.

Been looking for similar signs in Upper NW DC but so far two homes were under contract in less than 2 weeks. One is a complete remodel that had to drop their asking price by a decent amount (which they did quickly)...but still seems to be under contract for more than I would expect.

The other is for $3MM and under contract within a week. That one surprises me because even in Upper NW DC you don't see many homes listed for $3MM.

There is literally only one home for sale right now in like a 3/4 mile radius of where we are.

This difference could be about RTO depending on the location of the Silver Spring houses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I heard a lot of defense contracts are getting canned.

So much for defense contractors always voting R for job security. oops.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I heard a lot of defense contracts are getting canned.

So much for defense contractors always voting R for job security. oops.

They'll get plenty of business when Dump invades Panama and bombs Mexico.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I heard a lot of defense contracts are getting canned.

So much for defense contractors always voting R for job security. oops.

They'll get plenty of business when Dump invades Panama and bombs Mexico.

No Trump has to raise 2 trillion dollars to pay the Israelis for the sale of Gaza.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:None.

All these executive orders will be challenged in court. Don't resign with that Fork in the Road drivel: the government is only funded until March. They can't follow through on their promise to pay you until September anyway.

The fork email also contained some threatening language suggesting a lot of future unemployment. That May all be legal or not but in the near term it creates intense uncertainty. I’m certainly cutting way back on discretionary spending, and won’t be doing some home improvement projects I had planned.

+1 Our income increased a fair amount last year and I was considering how to spend my extra money. Like a cleaning service, nicer clothes, etc. Now I'm actually going to reduce my spending so I can shore up my emergency fund.

Folks are supposed to strive for six months of expenditures in savings. It sounds like you are being saved from yourself!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Make those folks get a teaching certificate and get them into schools to teach. teaching shortage and especially of people in STEAM subjects.

Why would they do that when Musk is getting ready to gut the Dept of Ed. Musk will be bragging about throwing it into the chipper as he did with USAID.

Plus, GOP has railed against teachers for ages.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

I remember from the 2008 recession that I was ready to hunker down financially and saw that some companies still hadn't figured out the recession was arriving. Those companies hired and expanded. Later, they laid people off.

Some leaders don't look ahead.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I heard a lot of defense contracts are getting canned.

So much for defense contractors always voting R for job security. oops.

They'll get plenty of business when Dump invades Panama and bombs Mexico.

No Trump has to raise 2 trillion dollars to pay the Israelis for the sale of Gaza.

Is that how much it costs to build the coastal resort he wants there?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

I remember from the 2008 recession that I was ready to hunker down financially and saw that some companies still hadn't figured out the recession was arriving. Those companies hired and expanded. Later, they laid people off.

Some leaders don't look ahead.

The surrounding counties have never diversified. They depend solely on government spending and government employees paying real estate taxes. Any other business is purely an afterthought .

[Anonymous]

My massage therapist is a Trump supporter, she claimed he will be good for small businesses. Past Sunday I scheduled a same day appointment because of some back issues and the place was empty (previously she barely had any open slots), she was very stressed because people have started cutting back on discretionary spending. I was thinking later on that people like her didn't think of anything or anyone else beyond their own myopic gains, now she can join feds and feel the pain of financial stress. I have no sympathy.