ripple effects from government employment/contracting uncertainty in DMV economy?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

My friends in employment law locally have their phones ringing off the hook right now.

Calls, yes. Lots of Feds paying retainers? Unlikely.

Deregulation means a lot less work for the DC firms. Companies don’t need help complying with regulations that have been eliminated. We were about to hire a firm for a ton of regulatory work but Trump blocked the new requirements so no need now.

I work in regulation as a fed, and the private sector is always clamoring for us to write regulations faster and more specifically, so they can have certainty. I would imagine that cutting the work force = less clarity for business, which will pull back on investments out of uncertainty.

As of yet I don't see any deregulatory moves from this administration, aside from just saying they want less regulation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I go to the same weekly fitness class in my neighborhood (not by the downtown offices) and its been getting emptier for the last 3 weeks. I would not be surprised if they run a class pack promotion soon. I'm sure it is a combination of RTO and people pulling back on discretionary spending.

People are showing up for work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I go to the same weekly fitness class in my neighborhood (not by the downtown offices) and its been getting emptier for the last 3 weeks. I would not be surprised if they run a class pack promotion soon. I'm sure it is a combination of RTO and people pulling back on discretionary spending.

People are showing up for work.

I think you meant to say "People are commuting to the office". Which means that instead of being able to go to a fitness class in their neighborhood before getting online for the day, they are now spending that time sitting in the car or on the metro.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I go to the same weekly fitness class in my neighborhood (not by the downtown offices) and its been getting emptier for the last 3 weeks. I would not be surprised if they run a class pack promotion soon. I'm sure it is a combination of RTO and people pulling back on discretionary spending.

People are showing up for work.

I think you meant to say "People are commuting to the office". Which means that instead of being able to go to a fitness class in their neighborhood before getting online for the day, they are now spending that time sitting in the car or on the metro.

I’m not OP, but as a former fed- many (most if not all) of my colleagues did things like work out in the middle of the work day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

My friends in employment law locally have their phones ringing off the hook right now.

Calls, yes. Lots of Feds paying retainers? Unlikely.

Deregulation means a lot less work for the DC firms. Companies don’t need help complying with regulations that have been eliminated. We were about to hire a firm for a ton of regulatory work but Trump blocked the new requirements so no need now.

Regulatory work is just not a big part of BigLaw anywhere. It’s only like 5% of business. Transaction and corporate litigation is 90%+ of all BigLaw.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I go to the same weekly fitness class in my neighborhood (not by the downtown offices) and its been getting emptier for the last 3 weeks. I would not be surprised if they run a class pack promotion soon. I'm sure it is a combination of RTO and people pulling back on discretionary spending.

People are showing up for work.

I think you meant to say "People are commuting to the office". Which means that instead of being able to go to a fitness class in their neighborhood before getting online for the day, they are now spending that time sitting in the car or on the metro.

I’m not OP, but as a former fed- many (most if not all) of my colleagues did things like work out in the middle of the work day.

I'm a fed who has been in the office full time since the pandemic and go to the gym in the middle of the work day. But my gym is in the building; I don't have time to go to a gym outside of the office.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

My friends in employment law locally have their phones ringing off the hook right now.

Calls, yes. Lots of Feds paying retainers? Unlikely.

Deregulation means a lot less work for the DC firms. Companies don’t need help complying with regulations that have been eliminated. We were about to hire a firm for a ton of regulatory work but Trump blocked the new requirements so no need now.

I work in regulation as a fed, and the private sector is always clamoring for us to write regulations faster and more specifically, so they can have certainty. I would imagine that cutting the work force = less clarity for business, which will pull back on investments out of uncertainty.

As of yet I don't see any deregulatory moves from this administration, aside from just saying they want less regulation.

It sounds like you are describing regulatory capture. If a company wants specific regulations, it is usually looking to weaponize them against its competitors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

My friends in employment law locally have their phones ringing off the hook right now.

Calls, yes. Lots of Feds paying retainers? Unlikely.

Deregulation means a lot less work for the DC firms. Companies don’t need help complying with regulations that have been eliminated. We were about to hire a firm for a ton of regulatory work but Trump blocked the new requirements so no need now.

I was replying to a post specifically about employment law. Most feds do not have tens of thousands to bring an individual case. Question, sure. Lots of retained work? Doubtful.

[Anonymous]

AI won’t just impact Feds

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14377751/elon-musk-doge-goals-blitzkrieg-federal-government.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

My friends in employment law locally have their phones ringing off the hook right now.

Calls, yes. Lots of Feds paying retainers? Unlikely.

Deregulation means a lot less work for the DC firms. Companies don’t need help complying with regulations that have been eliminated. We were about to hire a firm for a ton of regulatory work but Trump blocked the new requirements so no need now.

I work in regulation as a fed, and the private sector is always clamoring for us to write regulations faster and more specifically, so they can have certainty. I would imagine that cutting the work force = less clarity for business, which will pull back on investments out of uncertainty.

As of yet I don't see any deregulatory moves from this administration, aside from just saying they want less regulation.

It sounds like you are describing regulatory capture. If a company wants specific regulations, it is usually looking to weaponize them against its competitors.

yes, that's what they would like. I didn't say we ~do~ what they want. But also clarity, even if it is not in a specific company's interest, is generally what they want instead of no certainty.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

My friends in employment law locally have their phones ringing off the hook right now.

Calls, yes. Lots of Feds paying retainers? Unlikely.

Deregulation means a lot less work for the DC firms. Companies don’t need help complying with regulations that have been eliminated. We were about to hire a firm for a ton of regulatory work but Trump blocked the new requirements so no need now.

Regulatory work is just not a big part of BigLaw anywhere. It’s only like 5% of business. Transaction and corporate litigation is 90%+ of all BigLaw.

Both of which entail lots of regulatory work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My Fed spouse has been placed on admin leave. We're not enrolling our kids in camps this summer, have stopped eating at restaurants and are considering if we can sell our home in the DMV and move somewhere cheaper. This war on the federal government is going to devastate the DMV area.

I know friends who are feeling the same, they are cutting down expenses even though they haven't been laid off yet and are looking to sell but only if they can get current prices... If everyone starts selling their homes people will have to take a loss and not many are going to go with this decision lightly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Brick and mortar stores, particular small businesses, will suffer the most. Commercial real estate has been taking a beating for the last five years and while RTO may help, we are likely seeing a contraction in spending not just regionally but nationally.

The local business headlines are whiplash.

In the one hand doom and gloom about the fed workforce.

On the other an article that there isn’t enough Class A office space (the best newest office space) for all the law firms and other firms looking to expand in DC.

Which law firms are expanding? Know lots of people who got pushed out of Big Law in the past two years. The trend has been to downsize and belt tighten.

Law firms are getting out of their pre-COVID leases and trying to move to another Class A property for less money. So many empty Class B & C office bldgs right now.

My friends in employment law locally have their phones ringing off the hook right now.

Calls, yes. Lots of Feds paying retainers? Unlikely.

Deregulation means a lot less work for the DC firms. Companies don’t need help complying with regulations that have been eliminated. We were about to hire a firm for a ton of regulatory work but Trump blocked the new requirements so no need now.

Regulatory work is just not a big part of BigLaw anywhere. It’s only like 5% of business. Transaction and corporate litigation is 90%+ of all BigLaw.

Both of which entail lots of regulatory work.

What are you talking about? Transaction work is writing IPO prospectuses, share purchase agreements, etc.

Are you claiming you won’t have to make SEC filings anymore?

Litigation is companies suing each other over contractual disputes or class action lawsuits against companies…again, I don’t see anything restricting corporate litigation.

[Anonymous]

The economy of East Coast gets impacted and there are less taxes for the middle America hilly billies Trumpers. Everyone suffers. So great!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The economy of East Coast gets impacted and there are less taxes for the middle America hilly billies Trumpers. Everyone suffers. So great!

but it's not just the east cost, since 80% of feds and who knows what percentage of fed contractors are outside of the DC area.