ripple effects from government employment/contracting uncertainty in DMV economy?

[Anonymous]

Fairfax County job page: https://workinffxnova.com/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think that there will be some initial pain, but it will shake itself out by the end of the year. The fact is that a lot of people can't move for many reasons (i.e. either underwater on their mortgage or refinanced to an incredibly low interest rate). Also, while many feds are losing their jobs right now, DC is still the center of US government (i.e. White House, Capitol Building, etc.). Private companies are still investing in this area. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if foreign governments start scooping up the real estate in this area.
During COVID, when many federal workers were laid off for not getting the jab, we didn't see a huge recession. I definitely think that the clean up of the federal government was long over due (i.e. did we really need to pay for Sesame Street in Iran) - BUT I wish that the downsizing of the government was done in phases (i.e. maybe start with the truly low performing employees or removing those who personally were involved in causing waste or corruption - since the vast majority of feds probably had no clue what was going on).

Very few people were actually disciplined or terminated for not getting the Covid-19 vaccine - this is not a comparable example. https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2023/02/feds-driven-away-bidens-vaccine-mandate-could-return-or-get-payouts-under-new-bill/383127/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why anyone is suggesting people become teachers. MCPS is going to get hit hard by the loss of federal funding and lower tax dollars. It's going to get ugly. And I suspect a lot of people are going to leave the area so lower enrollment.

only 3.4% of MCPS budget comes from federal government.

A job is a job. A job with some sort of mission (like teaching) is something that is probably attractive to fed employees who have already accepted lower salaries for a mission.

You don't get it. Tax revenues for Montgomery County are going to crater. Just watch the unemployment numbers in a couple of months. Then the housing market will crash and the foreclosures will start. People will leave the area. MCPS will lay off the last people the hired first. I would not recommend anybody invest time and resources to get change careers and get certified as a teacher on the expectation of being employed in this area.

This. The ripple effect of the destruction of so much federal employment and the adjacent contractors is likely going to be massive. Many people aren’t going to stick around in high cost districts like MoCo without good jobs. They’ll move further out or out of state completely

No jobs for anyone! Wake up people! Destruction of MoCo imminent! Buy your bunker or move to your beach house!

Ok, you go ahead and invest heavily into a career change to teaching in the hopes it will help you pay your mortgage on your house that will soon be underwater.

What do you do?

What do you do?

[Anonymous]

Its scary everyday you hear hundreds of people getting fired or laid off. Eliminating a whole department or agency. The malls are empty. No one is outside.

[Anonymous]

something like 20,000 people were laid off last week, with more coming this week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why anyone is suggesting people become teachers. MCPS is going to get hit hard by the loss of federal funding and lower tax dollars. It's going to get ugly. And I suspect a lot of people are going to leave the area so lower enrollment.

only 3.4% of MCPS budget comes from federal government.

A job is a job. A job with some sort of mission (like teaching) is something that is probably attractive to fed employees who have already accepted lower salaries for a mission.

How much of the MCPS budget comes from property taxes whose valuations are about to collapse? What about sales tax? When people lose their jobs en masse it will wreck the budget.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why anyone is suggesting people become teachers. MCPS is going to get hit hard by the loss of federal funding and lower tax dollars. It's going to get ugly. And I suspect a lot of people are going to leave the area so lower enrollment.

only 3.4% of MCPS budget comes from federal government.

A job is a job. A job with some sort of mission (like teaching) is something that is probably attractive to fed employees who have already accepted lower salaries for a mission.

How much of the MCPS budget comes from property taxes whose valuations are about to collapse? What about sales tax? When people lose their jobs en masse it will wreck the budget.

yes, we know. we are constantly reminded that no one can find any other job and Moco, which has borders that people cannot cross, is about to become a cesspool.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why anyone is suggesting people become teachers. MCPS is going to get hit hard by the loss of federal funding and lower tax dollars. It's going to get ugly. And I suspect a lot of people are going to leave the area so lower enrollment.

only 3.4% of MCPS budget comes from federal government.

A job is a job. A job with some sort of mission (like teaching) is something that is probably attractive to fed employees who have already accepted lower salaries for a mission.

How much of the MCPS budget comes from property taxes whose valuations are about to collapse? What about sales tax? When people lose their jobs en masse it will wreck the budget.

None of the MCPS budget comes directly from property taxes. The county sends MCPS a check. That's 64% of the budget.


https://ww2.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/budget-101/index.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hope everyone in the DMV realizes that these government layoffs are going to cause people in the private sector and small businesses to lose jobs too. If you have ever lived in a factory town when the factory closes, all businesses go down too.

Good luck with your property values.

There will be pain but we will sacrifice for the greater good.

You won't survive this sacrifice, you are not special. Something has to change to what's going on, and at some point even the biggest fans of DOGE will start questioning when new jobs will be created and all the prosperity they are promised will start trickling down to them. So far proposed budget is going to add to national debt too.. let's find out where they are planning to spend and how this will benefit you.

I’ll be fine. Not at all worried. My kids and their kids will be fine. Already taken care of from real work.

As for the other aspects you mentioned, I wish you all had thought of that before you spent decades looting the treasury.

So you are really fine with Trump increasing the national debt by 4.5 trillion dollars to cover tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans? Blaming other administrations when Trump is stealing from Americans out in the open is getting tiring.

I think the GOP tax cuts are a joke for sure. Let's the address the debt both through taxes and stopping the massive fraud that has taken place for decades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why anyone is suggesting people become teachers. MCPS is going to get hit hard by the loss of federal funding and lower tax dollars. It's going to get ugly. And I suspect a lot of people are going to leave the area so lower enrollment.

only 3.4% of MCPS budget comes from federal government.

A job is a job. A job with some sort of mission (like teaching) is something that is probably attractive to fed employees who have already accepted lower salaries for a mission.

How much of the MCPS budget comes from property taxes whose valuations are about to collapse? What about sales tax? When people lose their jobs en masse it will wreck the budget.

None of the MCPS budget comes directly from property taxes. The county sends MCPS a check. That's 64% of the budget.


https://ww2.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/budget-101/index.html

Do you not understand where the money in that "check" comes from?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Its scary everyday you hear hundreds of people getting fired or laid off. Eliminating a whole department or agency. The malls are empty. No one is outside.

It is scary that so many people are being laid off, but I was just at Wheaton Mall this morning and there were plenty of shoppers there. So maybe it's just your part of Moscow and not across the world in Montgomery County, Maryland?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think that there will be some initial pain, but it will shake itself out by the end of the year. The fact is that a lot of people can't move for many reasons (i.e. either underwater on their mortgage or refinanced to an incredibly low interest rate). Also, while many feds are losing their jobs right now, DC is still the center of US government (i.e. White House, Capitol Building, etc.). Private companies are still investing in this area. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if foreign governments start scooping up the real estate in this area.
During COVID, when many federal workers were laid off for not getting the jab, we didn't see a huge recession. I definitely think that the clean up of the federal government was long over due (i.e. did we really need to pay for Sesame Street in Iran) - BUT I wish that the downsizing of the government was done in phases (i.e. maybe start with the truly low performing employees or removing those who personally were involved in causing waste or corruption - since the vast majority of feds probably had no clue what was going on).

US military were the ones who refused to get vaccinated. They should have been dishonorably discharged and deported for stupidity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hope everyone in the DMV realizes that these government layoffs are going to cause people in the private sector and small businesses to lose jobs too. If you have ever lived in a factory town when the factory closes, all businesses go down too.

Good luck with your property values.

There will be pain but we will sacrifice for the greater good.

You won't survive this sacrifice, you are not special. Something has to change to what's going on, and at some point even the biggest fans of DOGE will start questioning when new jobs will be created and all the prosperity they are promised will start trickling down to them. So far proposed budget is going to add to national debt too.. let's find out where they are planning to spend and how this will benefit you.

I’ll be fine. Not at all worried. My kids and their kids will be fine. Already taken care of from real work.

As for the other aspects you mentioned, I wish you all had thought of that before you spent decades looting the treasury.

So you are really fine with Trump increasing the national debt by 4.5 trillion dollars to cover tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans? Blaming other administrations when Trump is stealing from Americans out in the open is getting tiring.

I think the GOP tax cuts are a joke for sure. Let's the address the debt both through taxes and stopping the massive fraud that has taken place for decades.

Great. Let's start with taxes. Like a wealth tax. That would tend to defray both the effects of ill-gotten gains from the massive fraud in government spending and the massive societal fraud of the elements of the tax code (carried interest, capital gains, etc.) that have facilitated the ever-greater accumulation of wealth in high proportion by those already massively wealthy at rates nearly unattainable by those not already massively wealthy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why anyone is suggesting people become teachers. MCPS is going to get hit hard by the loss of federal funding and lower tax dollars. It's going to get ugly. And I suspect a lot of people are going to leave the area so lower enrollment.

only 3.4% of MCPS budget comes from federal government.

A job is a job. A job with some sort of mission (like teaching) is something that is probably attractive to fed employees who have already accepted lower salaries for a mission.

How much of the MCPS budget comes from property taxes whose valuations are about to collapse? What about sales tax? When people lose their jobs en masse it will wreck the budget.

None of the MCPS budget comes directly from property taxes. The county sends MCPS a check. That's 64% of the budget.


https://ww2.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/budget-101/index.html

Do you not understand where the money in that "check" comes from?

Property taxes, business and commercial taxes, and other assorted revenue. Do you?

[Anonymous]

This thread is making my day!