Has this board missed the huge contraction in tech?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Long term the world has always and will always become more “computery” so a degree in CS is a good bet. It moves in fits and starts though. But technological innovation never stops

I don’t disagree with this as a baseline, that someone with a CS degree will be able to find a job. But the assumption that there will be a big fat firehose of money/upper middle class salaries, that is what I am more skeptical of.[b]

Ok, we’ll what else then? They’ll still have better prospects than English majors.

Again. My point is not about this major vs that major. It’s threads analyzing “oh this school sent this % of kids to big tech with an average starting salary of $1XXk” that completely ignore we are in the middle of a massive contraction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Am very involved in the tech ecosystem and live here in DMV. Folks I know in the valley mostly have not found jobs yet. The Meta folks are struggling to find new work.

AI will crush many job types but especially so in tech. AI coding is ready quite good.

A company I know laid off its entire 20 person QA team and replaced with engineers QAing their own code with LLMs

It’s coming very fast. Human brains mostly are not evolving. AI is evolving weekly.

I’ve seen the next generation versions (we are about 6 mos into the public side of this) and they are rapidly evolving.

I don’t mean the world is ending thing. But I do mean that many jobs that we are training what we think are to-be high salaried future college grads for simply won’t be there

Remember how we used to all look at so called White Working Class and say “why are they so angry?”

Now get ready for that with CS grads in 5 years or less. The number of jobs will start to shrink fast. Meanwhile kids graduating with $200k+ of debt from private universities who expected the lifestyle of 150k plus starting comp and way more with RSUs and stock.

I personally would not encourage my kids to go in as CS (plus it’s hard as hell to get admitted given competition)

We need more skilled trades like plumbing and electrical but the DCUM crowd and our peers look down on that work. Just wait til those jobs pay more than tech coding jobs

It’s coming.

Signed,
25 year Silicon Valley guy now living in DC

Telling DCUM crowd to eschew CS for plumbing and electrician work.

Yeah...right.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imagine other majors

+1 STEM is a much safer bet than humanities majors.

Absolutely! If the job market is bad for CS and engineers, it won’t be any better for history majors. Hate to say this. The amount of workload and difficulty between STEM and liberal arts/social studies majors is not even remotely comparable.

OP here. I’m absolutely NOT saying other majors are better or don’t major in CS. It just seems like this board is salivating over tech salaries and tech hiring rates from certain schools completely oblivious to the fact the data they are looking at has aged like milk.

NP. DS will be attending UMD as a CS major. The thought parents "salivating" over their child's career prospects is just weird. Don't think it's as widespread on this board as you believe. I would venture to guess that most hope for healthy and moderately happy members of society.

[Anonymous]

I've been in tech 20 years. FAANG was overpaying ($200k fresh out of college!) so no wonder those people can't find jobs at similar salaries. The jobs are out there at reasonable salaries.

First.. computers will always be with us, and the world will continue to be more reliant on them, not less.

As for AI, it's the current "hot" thing but AI has existed for decades, and we've had just enough computing power and storage resources 5 years ago as now to power AI. It has its places, but it's not going to make people obsolete. You think AI is going to fix your broken keyboard, or program the system to track fleet fuel usage of trucks at the warehouse? It will be a tool to make humans more efficient, but that's it. (Notice we haven't solved the self-driving car problem yet, despite spending billions and putting the smartest minds on it -- why not? Doesn't AI solve all problems?)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imagine other majors

+1 STEM is a much safer bet than humanities majors.

Absolutely! If the job market is bad for CS and engineers, it won’t be any better for history majors. Hate to say this. The amount of workload and difficulty between STEM and liberal arts/social studies majors is not even remotely comparable.

OP here. I’m absolutely NOT saying other majors are better or don’t major in CS. It just seems like this board is salivating over tech salaries and tech hiring rates from certain schools completely oblivious to the fact the data they are looking at has aged like milk.

NP. DS will be attending UMD as a CS major. The thought parents "salivating" over their child's career prospects is just weird. Don't think it's as widespread on this board as you believe. I would venture to guess that most hope for healthy and moderately happy members of society.

I think it’s far more likely it’s exactly as widespread as I have observed, than that I am wrong about what I am reading.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been in tech 20 years. FAANG was overpaying ($200k fresh out of college!) so no wonder those people can't find jobs at similar salaries. The jobs are out there at reasonable salaries.

First.. computers will always be with us, and the world will continue to be more reliant on them, not less.

As for AI, it's the current "hot" thing but AI has existed for decades, and we've had just enough computing power and storage resources 5 years ago as now to power AI. It has its places, but it's not going to make people obsolete. You think AI is going to fix your broken keyboard, or program the system to track fleet fuel usage of trucks at the warehouse? It will be a tool to make humans more efficient, but that's it. (Notice we haven't solved the self-driving car problem yet, despite spending billions and putting the smartest minds on it -- why not? Doesn't AI solve all problems?)

As the OP, this was truly my only point. Salaries were, past tense, were, incredibly high. And yet there’s no acknowledgment of it around here, despite extensive discussion of historical starting salaries in tech.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imagine other majors

+1 STEM is a much safer bet than humanities majors.

Absolutely! If the job market is bad for CS and engineers, it won’t be any better for history majors. Hate to say this. The amount of workload and difficulty between STEM and liberal arts/social studies majors is not even remotely comparable.

OP here. I’m absolutely NOT saying other majors are better or don’t major in CS. It just seems like this board is salivating over tech salaries and tech hiring rates from certain schools completely oblivious to the fact the data they are looking at has aged like milk.

NP. DS will be attending UMD as a CS major. The thought parents "salivating" over their child's career prospects is just weird. Don't think it's as widespread on this board as you believe. I would venture to guess that most hope for healthy and moderately happy members of society.

I think it’s far more likely it’s exactly as widespread as I have observed, than that I am wrong about what I am reading.

+1, and I have witnessed it in person, it's real.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've been in tech 20 years. FAANG was overpaying ($200k fresh out of college!) so no wonder those people can't find jobs at similar salaries. The jobs are out there at reasonable salaries.

First.. computers will always be with us, and the world will continue to be more reliant on them, not less.

As for AI, it's the current "hot" thing but AI has existed for decades, and we've had just enough computing power and storage resources 5 years ago as now to power AI. It has its places, but it's not going to make people obsolete. You think AI is going to fix your broken keyboard, or program the system to track fleet fuel usage of trucks at the warehouse? It will be a tool to make humans more efficient, but that's it. (Notice we haven't solved the self-driving car problem yet, despite spending billions and putting the smartest minds on it -- why not? Doesn't AI solve all problems?)

As the OP, this was truly my only point. Salaries were, past tense, were, incredibly high. And yet there’s no acknowledgment of it around here, despite extensive discussion of historical starting salaries in tech.

I think some people who are not in the tech industry and/or who are younger don't realize that those types of salaries were not sustainable. A lot of people always think the party will never end, but having gone through two recessions and the dot com bomb, I know a bit better now.

Even so, I don't fear for my kid who is majoring in CS. There will always be a need for high tech workers, whether they are programmers, cybersecurity, machine learning or networking.

[Anonymous]

There are engineers going back to school for CS degrees.

CS majors will still be in high demand and command good salaries. It doesn't necessarily have to be FAANG.

Even a CS graduate working for one of the many defense contractors in the DMV area will do well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Long term the world has always and will always become more “computery” so a degree in CS is a good bet. It moves in fits and starts though. But technological innovation never stops

I don’t disagree with this as a baseline, that someone with a CS degree will be able to find a job. But the assumption that there will be a big fat firehose of money/upper middle class salaries, that is what I am more skeptical of.[b]

Ok, we’ll what else then? They’ll still have better prospects than English majors.

I’m an English major. I’ve been without a job for exactly seven days in the 35 years since I got my degree, and every job has been a fun job that’s related to my degree.

And I wasn’t even a very good English major, and I entered the job market as the economy was collapsing.

Obviously, I’ve been very lucky, but I think it’s a mistake to assume that STEM degrees all lead to paradise or the humanities and social sciences degrees always lead to hell. Bright people who major in something they love and do related jobs and activities while they’re in college can make all kinds of majors pay.

Kids who major in something like CS solely for the money probably aren’t going to stay current enough to hold CS-related jobs for very long.

dp.. but CS majors, even with the downturn, will be making more than English majors. They will be current enough to hold down a job for many many years. High tech isn't going anywhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are engineers going back to school for CS degrees.

CS majors will still be in high demand and command good salaries. It doesn't necessarily have to be FAANG.

Even a CS graduate working for one of the many defense contractors in the DMV area will do well.

+1 certainly better than English majors, as a whole.

[Anonymous]

We recently visited a college that is spending $225 million for a new Computer, Data and Information Sciences building. I don't think the sky is falling just yet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been in tech 20 years. FAANG was overpaying ($200k fresh out of college!) so no wonder those people can't find jobs at similar salaries. The jobs are out there at reasonable salaries.

First.. computers will always be with us, and the world will continue to be more reliant on them, not less.

As for AI, it's the current "hot" thing but AI has existed for decades, and we've had just enough computing power and storage resources 5 years ago as now to power AI. It has its places, but it's not going to make people obsolete. You think AI is going to fix your broken keyboard, or program the system to track fleet fuel usage of trucks at the warehouse? It will be a tool to make humans more efficient, but that's it. (Notice we haven't solved the self-driving car problem yet, despite spending billions and putting the smartest minds on it -- why not? Doesn't AI solve all problems?)

It is about the error levels that are acceptable. We may be 50 years away from truly autonomous driving because even if the technology gets there, human behavior won't allow for it. In a world in which the error is some lost money rather than car crashes and deaths, the transition will come faster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People don't seem to understand that the kids that graduate from a CS program and typically much more intelligent that the others who didn't, especially considering the competition to get into those programs over the past several years. Do you think they won't be able to figure out their careers relative to someone who majored in, what, English?

DD majored in English and she makes just as much as DD who majored in engineering. They have good jobs, are smart and talented, and are paid the same amount of money. I worry more about DD the engineer that she's going to plateau at some point. DD the English major has a great personality and loads of ability, so I expect she'll have a C-suite job before too long. DD the engineer will be successful, but I don't see her becoming a top executive. I hope I'm wrong and both continue to be very successful. My point is that an English degree is no barrier to success to those who are talented and ambitious.

[Anonymous]

85 percent of US jobs are BS generators.

They are in the crosshairs of AI.

Bleak.