Has this board missed the huge contraction in tech?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Cybersecurity is still hot.

For now, I question how that field can possibly absorb all of the kids who are flocking to it now, especially given how ripe it is for automation.

It is a strange misconception that CS is ripe for automation...creative fields, law, accounting, etc. are routinely cited as far more ripe for automation. Not to say CS is not as well, but it is impossible to know what to study if you are worried about being automated out of a career. Unless you are planning to pursue a trade...basically, every white collar job is vulnerable.

At least someone needs to program the AI and build the robots overlords...until they become aware at least.

Cyber security is ripe for automation and is largely automated by organizations large enough to afford automation

Yeah...but isn't someone programming the cyber security tools that the organizations use to automate their cybersecurity?

[Anonymous]

People who can actually code and program and design are still enormously sought after. I think it’s one of America’s current biggest self-owns that we are not doing all we can to support and educate and motivate and invest in kids who will be good software engineers and computer scientists and the like. State universities should be doing all in their power to educate kids who are talented in math and computer science and software engineering. It’s insane that UMD, for example, wouldn’t take any kid who is already a good programmer and has As or 5s in advanced math and physics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why people are obsessed with these companies...FAANG now is like IBM in the 1980s...they are now large companies where an entry level employee is a cog in a vast machinery and your job is fairly boring and inconsequential. I think folks think of them as the dynamic companies of the late 90s/early 2000s where you joined, had lots of responsibility, your stock grant was meaningful and could become something valuable. Those days are long gone.

As they say...there is always a bull market somewhere. AI companies of all stripes are hiring significantly which is why Cerebral Valley (centered around Open AI's HQ in SFO) is attracting tons of VC. Green energy is growing...heck, even semiconductor engineering is a growing US job market these days.

There's a difference between attracting VC though and hiring tons of programmers at big salaries. Open AI actually only has 375 full time employees and that includes functions like HR, etc. The model of companies like open AI is actually very few engineers on payroll, and then tons of low-paid contract engineers that are offshored in countries with lower salaries.

Off-shoring has always been around...unfortunately, all the folks happy to work remote don't realize that their bosses realize "well if they are remote anyway...let's fire them and use someone in SA or India for much less"

The successful tech companies in general (FB as an example) are way more efficient on a revenue/employee basis than nearly all companies. That said, someone my kid worked with just got funded through Y Combinator, moved out to Cerebral Valley and is hiring engineers...you have to start somewhere. Already, decent inbound VC interest on their next round (no doubt helped by Y Combinator).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why people are obsessed with these companies...FAANG now is like IBM in the 1980s...they are now large companies where an entry level employee is a cog in a vast machinery and your job is fairly boring and inconsequential. I think folks think of them as the dynamic companies of the late 90s/early 2000s where you joined, had lots of responsibility, your stock grant was meaningful and could become something valuable. Those days are long gone.

As they say...there is always a bull market somewhere. AI companies of all stripes are hiring significantly which is why Cerebral Valley (centered around Open AI's HQ in SFO) is attracting tons of VC. Green energy is growing...heck, even semiconductor engineering is a growing US job market these days.

There's a difference between attracting VC though and hiring tons of programmers at big salaries. Open AI actually only has 375 full time employees and that includes functions like HR, etc. The model of companies like open AI is actually very few engineers on payroll, and then tons of low-paid contract engineers that are offshored in countries with lower salaries.

Off-shoring has always been around...unfortunately, all the folks happy to work remote don't realize that their bosses realize "well if they are remote anyway...let's fire them and use someone in SA or India for much less"

The successful tech companies in general (FB as an example) are way more efficient on a revenue/employee basis than nearly all companies. That said, someone my kid worked with just got funded through Y Combinator, moved out to Cerebral Valley and is hiring engineers...you have to start somewhere. Already, decent inbound VC interest on their next round (no doubt helped by Y Combinator).

FB, as an example, has undergone absolutely stunning layoffs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why people are obsessed with these companies...FAANG now is like IBM in the 1980s...they are now large companies where an entry level employee is a cog in a vast machinery and your job is fairly boring and inconsequential. I think folks think of them as the dynamic companies of the late 90s/early 2000s where you joined, had lots of responsibility, your stock grant was meaningful and could become something valuable. Those days are long gone.

As they say...there is always a bull market somewhere. AI companies of all stripes are hiring significantly which is why Cerebral Valley (centered around Open AI's HQ in SFO) is attracting tons of VC. Green energy is growing...heck, even semiconductor engineering is a growing US job market these days.

There's a difference between attracting VC though and hiring tons of programmers at big salaries. Open AI actually only has 375 full time employees and that includes functions like HR, etc. The model of companies like open AI is actually very few engineers on payroll, and then tons of low-paid contract engineers that are offshored in countries with lower salaries.

Off-shoring has always been around...unfortunately, all the folks happy to work remote don't realize that their bosses realize "well if they are remote anyway...let's fire them and use someone in SA or India for much less"

The successful tech companies in general (FB as an example) are way more efficient on a revenue/employee basis than nearly all companies. That said, someone my kid worked with just got funded through Y Combinator, moved out to Cerebral Valley and is hiring engineers...you have to start somewhere. Already, decent inbound VC interest on their next round (no doubt helped by Y Combinator).

But you’re missing the elephant in the room. With interest rates spiking so much and so fast, there is just far less VC cash to go around. So the story you’re telling is less replicable than it’s been since basically the dot com crash.

[Anonymous]

I disagree with your premise. My kid wants to do CS because she thinks it’s fun but I’ve never encouraged it (other than suggesting some coding classes in elementary school). I’d rather she do biological or chemical science but she isn’t interested in that. I think lots of kids just like computers! I don’t get the sense parents are pushing this anymore than any other thing their kids are interested in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Cybersecurity is still hot.

For now, I question how that field can possibly absorb all of the kids who are flocking to it now, especially given how ripe it is for automation.

It is a strange misconception that CS is ripe for automation...creative fields, law, accounting, etc. are routinely cited as far more ripe for automation. Not to say CS is not as well, but it is impossible to know what to study if you are worried about being automated out of a career. Unless you are planning to pursue a trade...basically, every white collar job is vulnerable.

At least someone needs to program the AI and build the robots overlords...until they become aware at least.

CS is far more ripe for automation than law. I can already use automation to build a functional app but would never use it to write a brief to file in federal court. I am a lawyer and DH is a software engineer and he whole heartedly agrees, BTW.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I disagree with your premise. My kid wants to do CS because she thinks it’s fun but I’ve never encouraged it (other than suggesting some coding classes in elementary school). I’d rather she do biological or chemical science but she isn’t interested in that. I think lots of kids just like computers! I don’t get the sense parents are pushing this anymore than any other thing their kids are interested in.

I completely believe you that you are not. But I am 100% certain you are wrong that it’s not incredibly common for other parents to be pushing it.

[Anonymous]

Long term the world has always and will always become more “computery” so a degree in CS is a good bet. It moves in fits and starts though. But technological innovation never stops

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Long term the world has always and will always become more “computery” so a degree in CS is a good bet. It moves in fits and starts though. But technological innovation never stops

I don’t disagree with this as a baseline, that someone with a CS degree will be able to find a job. But the assumption that there will be a big fat firehose of money/upper middle class salaries, that is what I am more skeptical of.

[Anonymous]

CS without higher order math and physics at undergraduate level is a risky bet, especially. For every thousand CS degrees, only 5-10 are actually deep enough to be change-makers. Much of CS is now coding and relatively banal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Cybersecurity is still hot.

For now, I question how that field can possibly absorb all of the kids who are flocking to it now, especially given how ripe it is for automation.

It is a strange misconception that CS is ripe for automation...creative fields, law, accounting, etc. are routinely cited as far more ripe for automation. Not to say CS is not as well, but it is impossible to know what to study if you are worried about being automated out of a career. Unless you are planning to pursue a trade...basically, every white collar job is vulnerable.

At least someone needs to program the AI and build the robots overlords...until they become aware at least.

CS is far more ripe for automation than law. I can already use automation to build a functional app but would never use it to write a brief to file in federal court. I am a lawyer and DH is a software engineer and he whole heartedly agrees, BTW.

But you are citing anecdotal references...the experts could be wrong, but they are citing the careers above as most at-risk (also mathematicians, interpreters...a whole slew). Also, AI will impact entry-level positions primarily, so Big Law will hire fewer junior associates and paralegals to complete lower-level tasks, etc. Also, it is progressing at an incredible pace...you may not use it now to write a brief, but think where it could be in 12 or 24 months.

AI will impact nearly every white collar job, mainly on the low-end/entry level part of the spectrum...those of us that have already moved up the chain will probably find it to be great, but it will hurt nearly every white collar worker trying to start out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know why people are obsessed with these companies...FAANG now is like IBM in the 1980s...they are now large companies where an entry level employee is a cog in a vast machinery and your job is fairly boring and inconsequential. I think folks think of them as the dynamic companies of the late 90s/early 2000s where you joined, had lots of responsibility, your stock grant was meaningful and could become something valuable. Those days are long gone.

As they say...there is always a bull market somewhere. AI companies of all stripes are hiring significantly which is why Cerebral Valley (centered around Open AI's HQ in SFO) is attracting tons of VC. Green energy is growing...heck, even semiconductor engineering is a growing US job market these days.

There's a difference between attracting VC though and hiring tons of programmers at big salaries. Open AI actually only has 375 full time employees and that includes functions like HR, etc. The model of companies like open AI is actually very few engineers on payroll, and then tons of low-paid contract engineers that are offshored in countries with lower salaries.

Off-shoring has always been around...unfortunately, all the folks happy to work remote don't realize that their bosses realize "well if they are remote anyway...let's fire them and use someone in SA or India for much less"

The successful tech companies in general (FB as an example) are way more efficient on a revenue/employee basis than nearly all companies. That said, someone my kid worked with just got funded through Y Combinator, moved out to Cerebral Valley and is hiring engineers...you have to start somewhere. Already, decent inbound VC interest on their next round (no doubt helped by Y Combinator).

But you’re missing the elephant in the room. With interest rates spiking so much and so fast, there is just far less VC cash to go around. So the story you’re telling is less replicable than it’s been since basically the dot com crash.

Investing is cyclical...we are essentially at the end of the interest rate tightening cycle and it is now likely interest rates will start to drop by the end of 2023. Also, there is still plenty of money to chase ideas, so the "far less" VC cash is still multiples higher than what was available after the dot com crash.

[Anonymous]

Focus on the big(ger) picture. In CS terms that means architecting.

But in more general terms that means sales.

If you can win new business in it doesn't matter what tech stack the company is selling

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:CS majors will continue to be in demand.

Most kids of parents in DCUM won't hit the job market for another 4 - 5 years.

+1 I wrote in another thread about college kids and jobs.

It's a cycle.

But, I do agree that paying $80K/year for a CS degree is not worth it. I talked DC out of doing ED to CMU because while we could pay for it (but a hit to our retirement), it was not worth it.

So, DC will be going to UMDCP with some merit aid. They will do a +1 masters, and also have the time and finances to do a doublemajor if they want.

CS isn't going anywhere, but the next year or two will mean job seekers won't be getting the ridiculous salaries. That party was not going to last anyway. I am much older and have been in the high tech industry for 30+ years, went through two recessions and the dot com bomb in the Bay Area.

But, a CS degree is also more marketable and portable if DC wants to ever live in another country.