Who do you think is going to win and why?

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10/27/2024 17:38

Subject: Re:Who do you think is going to win and why?

Anonymous

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One of the problems with the “women are angry and are voting for Harris” point is that women are indeed furious, but not just about abortion. I just do not know which way the female rage vote will go.

Some traditional Trump voters are absolutely furious about abortion but live in communities where they can’t talk about that. They will silently vote for Harris in the privacy of the voting booth. These are women who likely are deeply religious but also have young daughters, and those daughters themselves. They might hate abortion but they hate women bleeding out more. However, their communities will make it impossible for them to talk about that. So they don’t show up in polls.

But there are other women who are as angry about Democrats embracing trans rights, which they perceive as deeply misogynistic. They also live in communities where they can’t talk about this; people who object to self-id risk their livelihood if they speak up about that. Women who believe drag queens to be horribly sexist minstrels in womanface can’t speak out without risking their own physical safety. Women who are furious about Title 9 losses cannot risk their own kids getting hurt. Those women are also angry, are also voting silently, and they aren’t voting for Harris.

I believe that there is a deep undercurrent of female rage that is not showing up in polling. But what I’m not sure about is which way that’s going to go in the critical swing states. There are days I wake up and think that the map is going to be literally solid blue on the day after the election and then there are days when I think I’ll awake to a new President Trump.

I want Harris to win, so I’m hoping it’s the former, but I think female rage might not actually break as much for Harris as people think.

You can keep posting this same thing - and I trust you will - but it doesn't change the fact that trans panic has by and large been a losing issue for Republicans. I'm sure there are at least several women who are nodding thoughtfully while reading your post. But that does not reach the fury that women are feeling - and acting on - right now.

You are out of touch. There is a reason Harris has been actively avoiding the issue and won’t answer direct questions now on the topic. There is a reason Trump’s awful they/them ads are doing well and going viral.

You can continue to rely on your 2021 data if you want, but the tides have shifted substantially on this issue and women are indeed angry.

Well, I'll tell you what - in my Florida neighborhood, where I go walking for about seven miles a day, I see a LOT of "yes on 4" signs - that's our reproductive rights amendment - and a lot of signs about not going back, and a LOT of signs about cats being for Harris and against Vance. With cats, of course, being about those cat lady comments Vance won't stop making, because he's so anti-woman. And I see nothing, not one single thing, mentioning trans anything. Except some trans flags that people have up at their houses, that were there before the election.

Are yard signs dispositive? No! But they are a sign of what's gotten through into the zeitgeist, and what issues people are holding onto. And you're trying to tell me that Dem-leaning women - not just stalwart Rs - are Very Concerned about the invasion of trans girls into public life. I'm telling you, I am not seeing any evidence of that. So you tell me - where is the evidence that D-leaning women are voting R because they are so upset about trans kids?

If yard signs explain the zeitgeist then the 10+ Trump signs and 0 Harris signs in my neighborhood in the blue part of Pittsburgh indicative of something?

If we’re being real, we all know you’re talking about your own lawn when you say your “neighborhood.” Of course there are ten Trump flags (guaranteed you left up your “Let’s Go Brandon” flag but with the swear word; you’re not winning hearts, my friend) and no Harris flags.