Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harris.
The numbers of young women 18-24 years old voting for Harris and canceling out their dad’s vote is crazy. Pollester might be taking to the fathers but kids don’t respond to messages.
She will win by a few points but she will win.
When she does we need to thanks Gen Z girls!

Don't count out all the dads of gen Z girls (and boys) that are voting for Harris!

[Anonymous]

One of the problems with the “women are angry and are voting for Harris” point is that women are indeed furious, but not just about abortion. I just do not know which way the female rage vote will go.

Some traditional Trump voters are absolutely furious about abortion but live in communities where they can’t talk about that. They will silently vote for Harris in the privacy of the voting booth. These are women who likely are deeply religious but also have young daughters, and those daughters themselves. They might hate abortion but they hate women bleeding out more. However, their communities will make it impossible for them to talk about that. So they don’t show up in polls.

But there are other women who are as angry about Democrats embracing trans rights, which they perceive as deeply misogynistic. They also live in communities where they can’t talk about this; people who object to self-id risk their livelihood if they speak up about that. Women who believe drag queens to be horribly sexist minstrels in womanface can’t speak out without risking their own physical safety. Women who are furious about Title 9 losses cannot risk their own kids getting hurt. Those women are also angry, are also voting silently, and they aren’t voting for Harris.

I believe that there is a deep undercurrent of female rage that is not showing up in polling. But what I’m not sure about is which way that’s going to go in the critical swing states. There are days I wake up and think that the map is going to be literally solid blue on the day after the election and then there are days when I think I’ll awake to a new President Trump.

I want Harris to win, so I’m hoping it’s the former, but I think female rage might not actually break as much for Harris as people think.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Has anyone seen lines for early voting like they did in 2020? It’s worrying.

In 2020 we were afraid of crowds. Early voting turnout was mostly wanting to avoid other people.

Don't speak for us all. Many of us knew how silly covid restrictions were. I stood in line, maskless, and voted. I wasn't afraid of the air.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Harris.
The numbers of young women 18-24 years old voting for Harris and canceling out their dad’s vote is crazy. Pollester might be taking to the fathers but kids don’t respond to messages.
She will win by a few points but she will win.
When she does we need to thanks Gen Z girls!

Don't count out all the dads of gen Z girls (and boys) that are voting for Harris!

This! Two gen z young men and one gen x dad. Harris all the way! And two of them have republican leanings…

[Anonymous]

Harris will win.

Americans outside of the MAGA cult are ready to TURN THE PAGE from Trump and his chaos.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One of the problems with the “women are angry and are voting for Harris” point is that women are indeed furious, but not just about abortion. I just do not know which way the female rage vote will go.

Some traditional Trump voters are absolutely furious about abortion but live in communities where they can’t talk about that. They will silently vote for Harris in the privacy of the voting booth. These are women who likely are deeply religious but also have young daughters, and those daughters themselves. They might hate abortion but they hate women bleeding out more. However, their communities will make it impossible for them to talk about that. So they don’t show up in polls.

But there are other women who are as angry about Democrats embracing trans rights, which they perceive as deeply misogynistic. They also live in communities where they can’t talk about this; people who object to self-id risk their livelihood if they speak up about that. Women who believe drag queens to be horribly sexist minstrels in womanface can’t speak out without risking their own physical safety. Women who are furious about Title 9 losses cannot risk their own kids getting hurt. Those women are also angry, are also voting silently, and they aren’t voting for Harris.

I believe that there is a deep undercurrent of female rage that is not showing up in polling. But what I’m not sure about is which way that’s going to go in the critical swing states. There are days I wake up and think that the map is going to be literally solid blue on the day after the election and then there are days when I think I’ll awake to a new President Trump.

I want Harris to win, so I’m hoping it’s the former, but I think female rage might not actually break as much for Harris as people think.

You can keep posting this same thing - and I trust you will - but it doesn't change the fact that trans panic has by and large been a losing issue for Republicans. I'm sure there are at least several women who are nodding thoughtfully while reading your post. But that does not reach the fury that women are feeling - and acting on - right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harris will win.

Americans outside of the MAGA cult are ready to TURN THE PAGE from Trump and his chaos.

I am ready to turn the page from Biden/Harris and their chaos. Trump hasn’t been in office the last four years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Well, I think we’ve found the one thing that we all agree on: the J6 poster is ruining this thread.

Yes, it does for the MAGA people that can't handle the truth about his inaction that day. Make it stop! Make it stop!

Weirdo: we're all aware of what happened on J6. That you think you need to keep rehashing it is beyond bizarre. There are so many other issues at play right now - J6 certainly isn't at the top of my list. Could you please move on.

J6 isn't the issue. The issue is what our Commander-in-Chief did while our country was in the midst of the most significant attack on our soil since 9/11. You're just hoping and praying people stop bringing up because somewhere deep down you know what he did was disqualifying but you just can't bring yourself to admit you're wrong.

Yes, a group of thugs wearing fake horns really fits this description. Nice trolling.

So in a post 9/11 world you think it is acceptable to assume hundreds of people breaching security at our United States Capitol Building while a majority of our most prominent leaders are inside is a situation where we should just assume no one is armed or seeking to do any harm? No reason for the POTUS to answer pleas for help in that situation. What could go wrong? Nothing to see here!

Wow. Idiots are going to idiot.

That you're *still* nattering on about this one awful day, when the entire summer of 2020 (and beyond) was one violent, destructive LWNJ riot after another, speaks volumes.

The riots of 2020 were disgusting and awful but they in no way posed the national security threat that 100 hundreds of people storming our Capitol building and roaming the halls looking for prominent leaders to "hang" did. These situations are not comparable. You assuming I am anywhere close to left wing is laughable. Acknowledging Trump's never seen before in a POTUS dereliction of duty on that day is not and should not be something only left wingers do.

The left wing rioters were throwing full sized bricks at police officers and also deliberately set a police department alight, trying to burn police officers alive. The people “storming” the Capitol building were completely peaceful in contrast.

Jan 6th was a coup attempt. Keep trump and those thug followers out of power.

The successful coup in July is a bigger problem for me.

emphasis mine

This is why I believe Harris will win…because more people are blue, no matter who and the “successful” candidate switcheroo proves it.

I love that the people who are calling Biden too old and demanding he stepped down are now mad that he did exactly that..... Just because you say you were going to run for president doesn't mean that you have to. I mean look at RFK....

I know no one who is mad that Biden stepped down. Many of us are mad that we elected a 77 year old in 2020 that wouldn't be a viable incumbent for re-election in 2024 and many of wish he had announced much sooner that he wouldn't be seeking a 2nd POTUS term.

At the end of the day, late 70s into your 80s is simply too old to be handed the reigns to the most powerful and demanding job in the world. Even if Trump or Biden were great and very popular leaders with great policies and appeared to have the mental health of someone in their 60s, I still wouldn't vote for them. It's just basic common sense that all of us need to begin applying as voters or else we just aren't taking our role as voters seriously.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One of the problems with the “women are angry and are voting for Harris” point is that women are indeed furious, but not just about abortion. I just do not know which way the female rage vote will go.

Some traditional Trump voters are absolutely furious about abortion but live in communities where they can’t talk about that. They will silently vote for Harris in the privacy of the voting booth. These are women who likely are deeply religious but also have young daughters, and those daughters themselves. They might hate abortion but they hate women bleeding out more. However, their communities will make it impossible for them to talk about that. So they don’t show up in polls.

But there are other women who are as angry about Democrats embracing trans rights, which they perceive as deeply misogynistic. They also live in communities where they can’t talk about this; people who object to self-id risk their livelihood if they speak up about that. Women who believe drag queens to be horribly sexist minstrels in womanface can’t speak out without risking their own physical safety. Women who are furious about Title 9 losses cannot risk their own kids getting hurt. Those women are also angry, are also voting silently, and they aren’t voting for Harris.

I believe that there is a deep undercurrent of female rage that is not showing up in polling. But what I’m not sure about is which way that’s going to go in the critical swing states. There are days I wake up and think that the map is going to be literally solid blue on the day after the election and then there are days when I think I’ll awake to a new President Trump.

I want Harris to win, so I’m hoping it’s the former, but I think female rage might not actually break as much for Harris as people think.

You can keep posting this same thing - and I trust you will - but it doesn't change the fact that trans panic has by and large been a losing issue for Republicans. I'm sure there are at least several women who are nodding thoughtfully while reading your post. But that does not reach the fury that women are feeling - and acting on - right now.

You are out of touch. There is a reason Harris has been actively avoiding the issue and won’t answer direct questions now on the topic. There is a reason Trump’s awful they/them ads are doing well and going viral.

You can continue to rely on your 2021 data if you want, but the tides have shifted substantially on this issue and women are indeed angry.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One of the problems with the “women are angry and are voting for Harris” point is that women are indeed furious, but not just about abortion. I just do not know which way the female rage vote will go.

Some traditional Trump voters are absolutely furious about abortion but live in communities where they can’t talk about that. They will silently vote for Harris in the privacy of the voting booth. These are women who likely are deeply religious but also have young daughters, and those daughters themselves. They might hate abortion but they hate women bleeding out more. However, their communities will make it impossible for them to talk about that. So they don’t show up in polls.

But there are other women who are as angry about Democrats embracing trans rights, which they perceive as deeply misogynistic. They also live in communities where they can’t talk about this; people who object to self-id risk their livelihood if they speak up about that. Women who believe drag queens to be horribly sexist minstrels in womanface can’t speak out without risking their own physical safety. Women who are furious about Title 9 losses cannot risk their own kids getting hurt. Those women are also angry, are also voting silently, and they aren’t voting for Harris.

I believe that there is a deep undercurrent of female rage that is not showing up in polling. But what I’m not sure about is which way that’s going to go in the critical swing states. There are days I wake up and think that the map is going to be literally solid blue on the day after the election and then there are days when I think I’ll awake to a new President Trump.

I want Harris to win, so I’m hoping it’s the former, but I think female rage might not actually break as much for Harris as people think.

Same here. It's excruciating.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well, I think we’ve found the one thing that we all agree on: the J6 poster is ruining this thread.

Yes, it does for the MAGA people that can't handle the truth about his inaction that day. Make it stop! Make it stop!

Weirdo: we're all aware of what happened on J6. That you think you need to keep rehashing it is beyond bizarre. There are so many other issues at play right now - J6 certainly isn't at the top of my list. Could you please move on.

J6 isn't the issue. The issue is what our Commander-in-Chief did while our country was in the midst of the most significant attack on our soil since 9/11. You're just hoping and praying people stop bringing up because somewhere deep down you know what he did was disqualifying but you just can't bring yourself to admit you're wrong.

Yes, a group of thugs wearing fake horns really fits this description. Nice trolling.

So in a post 9/11 world you think it is acceptable to assume hundreds of people breaching security at our United States Capitol Building while a majority of our most prominent leaders are inside is a situation where we should just assume no one is armed or seeking to do any harm? No reason for the POTUS to answer pleas for help in that situation. What could go wrong? Nothing to see here!

Wow. Idiots are going to idiot.

That you're *still* nattering on about this one awful day, when the entire summer of 2020 (and beyond) was one violent, destructive LWNJ riot after another, speaks volumes.

The riots of 2020 were disgusting and awful but they in no way posed the national security threat that 100 hundreds of people storming our Capitol building and roaming the halls looking for prominent leaders to "hang" did. These situations are not comparable. You assuming I am anywhere close to left wing is laughable. Acknowledging Trump's never seen before in a POTUS dereliction of duty on that day is not and should not be something only left wingers do.

The left wing rioters were throwing full sized bricks at police officers and also deliberately set a police department alight, trying to burn police officers alive. The people “storming” the Capitol building were completely peaceful in contrast.

Jan 6th was a coup attempt. Keep trump and those thug followers out of power.

The successful coup in July is a bigger problem for me.

emphasis mine

This is why I believe Harris will win…because more people are blue, no matter who and the “successful” candidate switcheroo proves it.

I love that the people who are calling Biden too old and demanding he stepped down are now mad that he did exactly that..... Just because you say you were going to run for president doesn't mean that you have to. I mean look at RFK....

I know no one who is mad that Biden stepped down. Many of us are mad that we elected a 77 year old in 2020 that wouldn't be a viable incumbent for re-election in 2024 and many of wish he had announced much sooner that he wouldn't be seeking a 2nd POTUS term.

At the end of the day, late 70s into your 80s is simply too old to be handed the reigns to the most powerful and demanding job in the world. Even if Trump or Biden were great and very popular leaders with great policies and appeared to have the mental health of someone in their 60s, I still wouldn't vote for them. It's just basic common sense that all of us need to begin applying as voters or else we just aren't taking our role as voters seriously.

Trumpers are furious.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am a Trump fan but if he wins it won’t be because of him, it’s because Kamala is the worst candidate a major party has run for president ever. She’s so laughably bad I’m still amazed she’s the candidate they literally *handpicked*. Why?!?!

They didn't hand pick her she was the only one allowed to use bidens donations. In 2020 she polled in single digits.

It’s interesting to consider how the Democratic Party got itself in to this mess.

Given where the country was in 2020, her selection as VP was understandable. It’s debatable whether Biden even intended to serve out his first term and certainly must not have expected to run for reelection. Presumably Biden’s hope was that Kamala would build her brand as VP and be politically strong enough to take over the presidency in 2023.

That plan was screwed well and truly by Kamala’s horrible performance - both administratively and politically - as VP. The logical thing for Biden to have done then would have been to announce his intention not to run and allow the primary process to play out. Clearly he was dissuaded by others in the Democratic Party from doing this, presumably by those who argued that subjecting Kamala to a primary would be disrespectful and divisive for the party.

Given a binary choice between himself and Kamala, Biden believed that he was more electable than his VP. He was probably right about that up until the debate. After the American public saw that, Kamala was probably the better option.

In retrospect (and regardless of the actual election result), the decision to not hold a primary was the height of political arrogance. We can only hope that the decision making process around becomes the subject of a book by Bob Woodward or someone like him so that we can come to know exactly who it was that was responsible.

Thank you for this post. It lays out a lot of my trouble with the Democratic Party this cycle and why I cannot, will not vote for them this time (not voting for Trump either). I’d rather write-in (and waste, according to most) than sit out completely and shirk what I consider a fundamental right and both a privilege and a duty.

I don't understand the argument being made at all.

First off being VP is like a nothing role. It's historically an annoying and amorphous position that even talented politicians struggle in. I think this is because most VPs are presidential hopefuls who get the position as a consolation prize or as part of a grooming process for president. Then they have to spend 4-8 years basically touting the president (even when they disagree with them) while also always avoiding overshadowing them. So the people in the role are often particularly ill suited for it.

The only actual job of the VP is to be alive so that they can be president if the president dies or is incapacited. Everything else is window dressing.

When people complain Harris was a bad VP I don't really get what they mean. Biden did her a real disservice by hanging immigration on her. The VP has no actual power to fix immigration. And Harris actually did something useful and productive on this point by helping to hammer out the bipartisan legislation. But then she has no power to actually get that passed and it fails. And now immigration is her fault but she has zero tools to make it better.

The real error here is that Biden got hubristic. He should have seen himself as a one-term president from the start and made choices that would explicitly help Harris win in 2024. Which means he should not have put her in the impossible position of being associate with but not actually in charge of a hot button issue. He really torpedoed her chances at that point.

And then him deciding to run in 2024 was just pure arrogance and lack of self-awareness. His family is also partially to blame for this -- they should have seen the writing on the wall and talked him out of it. The idea that Biden ran for re-election for the good of the party to spare them Harris as a candidate is BS. If he really didn't think Harris was up for the job he should have bowed out much earlier to allow for a full-field primary. Every minute he held on before bowing out made Harris more and more likely and that's entirely on Biden.

Biden did some good stuff as president but he screwed up succession. I don't view that as a failure of the Democratic party or as a good reason to help elect Donald Trump who will be worse than Biden or Harris in virtually every respect -- economy and immigration and foreign policy and budget and also filling the figurehead aspects of the role -- representing the US at home and abroad with dignity and intelligence.

Given Biden's cognitive state Kamala was running the whitehouse

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:One of the problems with the “women are angry and are voting for Harris” point is that women are indeed furious, but not just about abortion. I just do not know which way the female rage vote will go.

Some traditional Trump voters are absolutely furious about abortion but live in communities where they can’t talk about that. They will silently vote for Harris in the privacy of the voting booth. These are women who likely are deeply religious but also have young daughters, and those daughters themselves. They might hate abortion but they hate women bleeding out more. However, their communities will make it impossible for them to talk about that. So they don’t show up in polls.

But there are other women who are as angry about Democrats embracing trans rights, which they perceive as deeply misogynistic. They also live in communities where they can’t talk about this; people who object to self-id risk their livelihood if they speak up about that. Women who believe drag queens to be horribly sexist minstrels in womanface can’t speak out without risking their own physical safety. Women who are furious about Title 9 losses cannot risk their own kids getting hurt. Those women are also angry, are also voting silently, and they aren’t voting for Harris.

I believe that there is a deep undercurrent of female rage that is not showing up in polling. But what I’m not sure about is which way that’s going to go in the critical swing states. There are days I wake up and think that the map is going to be literally solid blue on the day after the election and then there are days when I think I’ll awake to a new President Trump.

I want Harris to win, so I’m hoping it’s the former, but I think female rage might not actually break as much for Harris as people think.

You can keep posting this same thing - and I trust you will - but it doesn't change the fact that trans panic has by and large been a losing issue for Republicans. I'm sure there are at least several women who are nodding thoughtfully while reading your post. But that does not reach the fury that women are feeling - and acting on - right now.

You are out of touch. There is a reason Harris has been actively avoiding the issue and won’t answer direct questions now on the topic. There is a reason Trump’s awful they/them ads are doing well and going viral.

You can continue to rely on your 2021 data if you want, but the tides have shifted substantially on this issue and women are indeed angry.

Well, I'll tell you what - in my Florida neighborhood, where I go walking for about seven miles a day, I see a LOT of "yes on 4" signs - that's our reproductive rights amendment - and a lot of signs about not going back, and a LOT of signs about cats being for Harris and against Vance. With cats, of course, being about those cat lady comments Vance won't stop making, because he's so anti-woman. And I see nothing, not one single thing, mentioning trans anything. Except some trans flags that people have up at their houses, that were there before the election.

Are yard signs dispositive? No! But they are a sign of what's gotten through into the zeitgeist, and what issues people are holding onto. And you're trying to tell me that Dem-leaning women - not just stalwart Rs - are Very Concerned about the invasion of trans girls into public life. I'm telling you, I am not seeing any evidence of that. So you tell me - where is the evidence that D-leaning women are voting R because they are so upset about trans kids?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I believe women are far, far angrier than the polling is picking up - and that we will vote Harris into the White House.

Being a nervous Democrat, my stomach is still in knots. But I do believe this.

Agree women are angry about:
1. Inflation and the impact on grocery prices,
2. Immigration and the corresponding rise in crime,
3. Having men in their daughters locker rooms, and
4. Bodily autonomy.

3 out those 4 reasons leads to an R vote.

Nobody I know is angry about men being in girls’ locker rooms.
Nobody I know believes trump can or would do anything to help with inflation. They are all smart enough to know that tariffs would hurt us.
Everyone I know understands that immigrants are responsible for very little crime and this country would be at a loss without them.

Everyone I know wants old, white men to keep their laws off of our bodies!

[Anonymous]

All the problems Harris is trying to fix like cost of food, energy, housing, crime, etc….


She had been in the White House the past 4 years!

These are her problem she caused. And now she wants a chance to fix them?