Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
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Anonymous
You have not provided anything to prove your assertion that Ukraine's only product is agriculture. |
Anonymous
And you sound like an ignorant Fox News viewer, a rabid Christian nationalist enraptured with Putin’s strongman aura or a paid Russian troll. |
Anonymous
[05/13/2023 15:47] Not sure who this is but your napalm theory is 'right out.' Would kill too many civilians. Unless you're a Russian trying to drive a wedge between Ukraine and the West? [05/13/2023 17:43] Yeah, you're talking to the napalm guy, who's nuts. Back to the original programming. No, not like this past year. The major difference is Putin is running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat. Also, I hope and pray it's two years, because I worry about year 3. A lot of dynamics change then. That's when I think the probability of really bad scenarios increase to the point where they're unavoidable. I hope I'm wrong. Ukraine will probably take two years'ish before there is 'relative stability' in Ukraine sufficient to insert peacekeeping forces. This year the Ukrainians got tons of gear but are using it wisely. Ukraine is playing it really smart. They'll attrit until Russia realizes it's losing it's forward manpower soldier-by-soldier and land it captured inch-by-inch. Their front line troops will be whittled down until there's only wisps of defenses left. Ukraine could take back some territoriy, but not Crimea this year. I think Crimea will get cut off at some point though. Russia is just letting their front line troops take the hits. Ukraine is taking advantage of this Russian strategic error. By the time Russia realizes their mistake and attempt to launch another invasion / attack, their commanders and troops will be in a panic. Why? Top 5 largest suppliers of tanks to #Ukraine 1: Poland - ~325 2: Germany - ~110 3: The Netherlands - 85 4: U.S. - 76 5: Czechia - ~50 https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1657329610168705024 List of heavy weapons sent to Ukraine: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html Haven't seen piles of burning hulks of Leopard 2's, M1's, have you? It's because they haven't even been committed into battle yet. Imagine you're a Russian commander who comes up for a look-see after an artillery barrage and a hundred state-of-the-art tanks start rolling up to eye over your positions with their thermal imagers? If you've ever been on a business-end of a Leopard 2 or M1, you can definitely feel their inner beast from miles away. The conscripts will likely flee in panic after hearing the sabots knock out their prized T-90's, and even the veterans will have trouble not pooping their pants knowing what comes 6 seconds later.. Sanctions? I would pull the threads of Russian banking. They're getting money laundered but the question is who. India? 40 billion? China? Without taking a cut? Brazil? Is that how they're influencing US politics? I would shut down all Russian diplomatic presence except minimal UN staff. I would shut down the embassy in Washington. Cut off Russian spies in the US as much as possible. Until the Russian spy network in the US is exposed and dismantled, I would expect continued election and local politics interference. Free up the FBI agents watching Russian officials to go pursue leads. If you need to talk to the Russians, use the bat phone (or Fox news.. or just Tweet/Telegram the Kremlin.. they seem to watch that okay..) Don't expect Russians to 'surrender'. Expect the best that can be achieved is 'ambivalence'. Russians pull out after 'having taught the Ukrainians a lesson,' or whatever their propagandists spin. But yes, within three years, I believe that Russia as we know it will be a very different place. Unless trajectory changes, a very scary place. I hope I'm wrong. |
Anonymous
| I think it is time to close this thread. Only full thermo nuclear warfare can Russia attempt to tie. At the expense of all Russians, Eastern European, and most of Asia. European and North Americans will survive exponentiall. |
Anonymous
Well, judging by today's events, in which Russia shot down four of its own aircraft - two Mi-8 helicopters, an Su-34 and an Su-35 - this war won't last long at all. These all went down in Bryansk Oblast, which is in Russia itself. The Russians are doing an excellent job of destroying themselves. They are terrified of the upcoming counter-offensive and the vast array of NATO weapon systems that are about to rain down upon them. Shooting down four of their own aircraft in one day within Russia indicates that this is a military in blind panic with a command and control structure that is effectively nonexistent. As for how the counter-offensive unfolds and ends, I have no idea. Ukraine has shown itself to be very imaginative and unpredictable. If I were to guess, it begins with shaping the battlefield - taking out behind the lines fuel and ammo depots, command centers, and all known high concentrations of troops. No doubt the west is feeding them intelligence picked up from satellites, surveillance drones, and intercepted communications. Ukraine now has the weaponry to reach well beyond the front lines, with the caveat that they cannot use American weapons specifically to hit targets within Russia. The front is approximately 900 km long. I would suspect they attack all along it and then see where opportunities present themselves for major breakthroughs. This is what they did successfully last year when they retook Kherson and Kharkiv. Strategically, I suspect they have two major objectives. One, a push south toward the Sea of Azov, thereby shattering the land bridge between Donbass and Crimea, which would then only be very precariously connected to Russia itself by a 12 mile bridge over the Kerch Straight. Ukraine has already knocked out this bridge once and they can do it again at will. I believe at present only the road portion has been rebuilt. The Russians have been unable to repair the rail link. I suspect the Ukrainians will leave the bridge alone for now to allow Russians an avenue to escape. I think they intend to lay siege to Crimea for the time being. The Black Sea fleet has already left Sevastopol and really isn't much of a threat to Ukraine presently. Secondly, I suspect they'll seek to encircle the bulk of Russian forces around Bakhmut just as the Soviet Army did against the German 6th Army in WWII during the battle of Stalingrad. It will break Russian and Wagner forces. Already, in recent days, the Ukrainian Army has managed to take back 17 sq km of territory around Bakhmut. This is where Russia has deployed a very significant amount of its forces - to little avail. I think Ukraine goes in for the kill there. If these two strategic goals are met I think Russian forces collapse and retreat everywhere. Russia could theoretically mobilize another 4 million men. But they have no weapons to fight with. Ukraine spends the remainder of the year mopping up Luhansk and Donetsk. And then only Crimea remains. Meanwhile, Russia itself becomes increasingly unstable - politically and economically. How that plays out is anyone's guess. But in the meantime, a negotiated solution is found for Crimea - something along the lines of having "special status" within a sovereign Ukraine. Russian forces leave peacefully. Ethnic Russians who lived there prior to 2014 are allowed to remain. Ukraine eventually joins the EU and NATO. Russia withers. The world's concern then focuses on ensuring that Russia does not collapse into civil war and anarchy, which no one wants. But that's another story. My two cents |
Anonymous
Great analysis. Thank you. What is your take on Wagner/Prighozin? Because I don't buy that Prighozin actually cares about the guys he's sending to fight. Is he trying to undermine faith in the defense minister and take over that post? |
Anonymous
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time to send back all Russian HXXXBs.
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Anonymous
American who's never been in the box? Sorry, but it shows. First, I'd be very surprised if Ukraine accepts a negotiated solution for Crimea unless it's shoved down their throats and they won't be happy about it. My guess is Poland and others may push against it as well. This would likely be perceived as a sign of weakness. Capitulation. Subservience. "Special Status?" Like in Bosnia? No, sorry, go fish. I don't think you understand the 'diplomatic negotiations' that occurred behind the scenes. Those tactics wouldn't work against Russia. It's a nuclear power. "The group's sole purpose was to provide an alternative mechanism to the UN for negotiat ing a peace settlement in the region. Since it had none of the UN's humanitarian and peacekeep ing responsibilities to divert its attention or weaken its freedom to negotiate forcefully, the group's relationship with the Bosnian Serbs was more overtly confrontational than the UN's. This suited the US representative to the group, Ambassador Holbrooke, just fine." "Upon hearing of the Mrkale shelling, for example, he suggested publicly that the proper response might be a bombing campaign against the Serbs of up to six months." https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ/journals/Volume-11_Issue-1-4/1997_Vol11_No3.pdf Second, I'm curious how you believe Ukraine will encircle Bakmut? I would look very closely at this map. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 It looks like the Russians right now are in control of the high ground both North and South of the city. The choices are to either (a) attack and capture two mountains simultaneously, or (b) drive down the middle and keep the Russians split and shoot for their supply route on E40 to cut their main supply route. Good luck trying to hump supplies up those mountains if Russia is control of E40. I'm glad you're only on DCUMS and not making US military decisions. You'll get people killed. Seriously. |
Anonymous
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The difference between Bosnia and Ukraine is that Bosnia couldn't win. As long as Ukraine can win then Crimea is not up for negotiation. It's as simple as that.
Now it's Ukraine's turn to go on the advance and it's kind of funny because it looks like Russia is playing the part of the Nazis in Stalingrad and Kursk. What's even funnier is that every single Russian knows the stories of those battles. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. |
Anonymous
I didn’t have to, with you calling it a bread basket of Europe left and right. Now, as to its leadership in “many areas of technology and manufacturing”, I still hear bubkes by way of proof. |
Anonymous
For some reason, DCUM gets really angry when reminded of America’s affection for the Gulf despots. I get it. It sort of interferes with the beacon of democracy legend. |
Anonymous
So do you think it will go on like it does now for a long time? I mean it looks like russian surrender let alone dissolution is not quite on the horizon? |
Anonymous
I think Prigozhin is a dead man walking. He appears to be in Bakhmut presently. His statements in recent days have been extraordinary, both in their candor about the recent defeats of Russian forces in the area and his evisceration of the Ministry of Defense, calling out various generals by name, His comments would be considered traitorous even by western standards. Today he effectively said that this was a stupid war, a failure, and that Russian and Wagner soldiers are dying for nothing. Prigozhin misplayed his hand. And now he's looking for a way out. My guess is he sees the writing on the wall. Russia will lose badly in the months ahead. He is trying to position himself so he escapes blame. He will argue that Wagner fought valiantly but they was undermined by Shoigu. However, his recent statements are effectively an attack on Putin himself. And as long as Putin remains in power, Prigozhin will be defenestrated the moment he sets foot in Moscow. He certainly can't surrender to Ukraine. He's a war criminal many times over. If he's not shot immediately he'll hang. He played a dangerous game. His only play is to overthrow Putin, but I can't see that happening. He's boxed in. I think he dies. |
Anonymous
I get your obsession with work Visa people (saw your comments on other threads) but there are very few Russians among them (relatively). |
Anonymous
You think Russia will become North Korea? Or you think Russia will change regime and be more like it was in the 90s? |