Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it is time to close this thread. Only full thermo nuclear warfare can Russia attempt to tie. At the expense of all Russians, Eastern European, and most of Asia. European and North Americans will survive exponentiall.

I would love another thread focused on predictions for the next 2-3 years though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know who is reading this, maybe it’s a bunch of Fox News Tucker types who somehow love Russia and it’s authoritarian ways and wish to emulate that stateside or maybe it’s some paid posters in a computer center in red square who idiotically try to spread their venomous anti-Ukraine propaganda, but fk you.

I am so happy the Ukrainians are showing you idiots what it’s all about. I’m glad hicks in flyover country who are being fed bs about how Ukrainians are Russian spreading people anyway and we should totally not care about Ukraine and basically “it’s not our problem”.

Shut up.

It is our problem and I’m glad we stuck with our allies. I’m glad Mitch McConnell, turtle that he is, stuck with Ukraine. I’m glad we didn’t listen to Russia living trump and we stuck with Ukraine. You people need to shape up. Get with the fking program. You can either be pot autocrat or pro western democracy and standing with our allies. So stand up.

LOL you sound just like W Bush.

Would you like the list of autocrats the US describes as dear friends and allies?

And you sound like an ignorant Fox News viewer, a rabid Christian nationalist enraptured with Putin’s strongman aura or a paid Russian troll.

Pssst... the left has a new-ish (3-4 years now) talking point on this. It is now the left that dislikes gulf state dictators. Biden famously snubbed Saudi Arabia and now they are hosting Russian and Chinese officials and they have announced that their monogamous relationship with us is over. The right is furious that the left is anti-Gulf state allies.

You are entitled to an independent view on this that is divorced from partisan politics. But, you're dead wrong that the pp sounds like a "Fox News consumer."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

This certainly isn't going to go on for decades. This is nothing like Israel-Palestine. Russia just on its own is deep into a doom loop. It's a demographic catastrophe that the war in Ukraine has only accelerated. Almost every young professional university-educated male, particularly in IT, left the country at the outset of the war. And they're not coming back. What remains is an increasingly old and barely literate population. An incredibly high percentage of Russian men are afflicted with alcoholism. Economically, for thirty years Russia has managed to get by as Europe's gas station. Europe isn't buying anymore. They're done will never go back to being dependent on Russian oil and gas. Selling deeply discounted oil to India does not support a superpower. Politically, there is no "system." It's a dictatorship. Putin is ill. The moment he leaves the scene, chaos reigns. Medvedev is a drunk. The rest are warlords. It's not going to go well.

And then there is the war in Ukraine. Best estimates are that Russia has suffered roughly 200,000 casualties. 70,000 dead and the rest crippled or injured. Ukraine has certainly suffered staggering losses themselves. But they are fighting to save their families and their land. There is no higher motivation to fight. Most of the advanced western weapons systems promised to Ukraine have arrived - Patriot missile systems, Leopard tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, and very significantly, UK-supplied Storm Shadow long distance missiles, which are five times more powerful than HIMARS and have a longer range. Just as importantly, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained up to NATO standards at bases throughout Europe and even the US, where they are being trained to use Abrams tanks, which should arrive in Ukraine by the Fall.

Meanwhile, the Russian military has fallen apart. More than 2500 tanks gone. At present rates of destruction, all their APCs will be wiped out by the end of the year. Shortages of ammunition. And on and on and on. None of this can be easily replenished. Military leadership is weak and disorganized. Wagner and regular army do not coordinate anymore. The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. In recent days, Ukrainian forces have conducted probing attacks throughout the front, including in Bakhmut. In all cases, Russian forces were destroyed or fled. On Russian Telegram channels, they are in blind panic.

I'm increasingly confident that the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive will turn into a rout and this war will be over by then end of the year.

That sure is a lot of words. Let me point out that even though Palestine isn’t exactly the strongest nation, it’s not going away, and Russia won’t as well, even when it bleeds out under sanctions.
As to your last paragraph, how do you think the counteroffensive will end? And how will the war end.

Well, judging by today's events, in which Russia shot down four of its own aircraft - two Mi-8 helicopters, an Su-34 and an Su-35 - this war won't last long at all. These all went down in Bryansk Oblast, which is in Russia itself. The Russians are doing an excellent job of destroying themselves. They are terrified of the upcoming counter-offensive and the vast array of NATO weapon systems that are about to rain down upon them. Shooting down four of their own aircraft in one day within Russia indicates that this is a military in blind panic with a command and control structure that is effectively nonexistent.

As for how the counter-offensive unfolds and ends, I have no idea. Ukraine has shown itself to be very imaginative and unpredictable. If I were to guess, it begins with shaping the battlefield - taking out behind the lines fuel and ammo depots, command centers, and all known high concentrations of troops. No doubt the west is feeding them intelligence picked up from satellites, surveillance drones, and intercepted communications. Ukraine now has the weaponry to reach well beyond the front lines, with the caveat that they cannot use American weapons specifically to hit targets within Russia.

The front is approximately 900 km long. I would suspect they attack all along it and then see where opportunities present themselves for major breakthroughs. This is what they did successfully last year when they retook Kherson and Kharkiv. Strategically, I suspect they have two major objectives. One, a push south toward the Sea of Azov, thereby shattering the land bridge between Donbass and Crimea, which would then only be very precariously connected to Russia itself by a 12 mile bridge over the Kerch Straight. Ukraine has already knocked out this bridge once and they can do it again at will. I believe at present only the road portion has been rebuilt. The Russians have been unable to repair the rail link. I suspect the Ukrainians will leave the bridge alone for now to allow Russians an avenue to escape. I think they intend to lay siege to Crimea for the time being. The Black Sea fleet has already left Sevastopol and really isn't much of a threat to Ukraine presently.

Secondly, I suspect they'll seek to encircle the bulk of Russian forces around Bakhmut just as the Soviet Army did against the German 6th Army in WWII during the battle of Stalingrad. It will break Russian and Wagner forces. Already, in recent days, the Ukrainian Army has managed to take back 17 sq km of territory around Bakhmut. This is where Russia has deployed a very significant amount of its forces - to little avail. I think Ukraine goes in for the kill there.

If these two strategic goals are met I think Russian forces collapse and retreat everywhere. Russia could theoretically mobilize another 4 million men. But they have no weapons to fight with. Ukraine spends the remainder of the year mopping up Luhansk and Donetsk. And then only Crimea remains.

Meanwhile, Russia itself becomes increasingly unstable - politically and economically. How that plays out is anyone's guess. But in the meantime, a negotiated solution is found for Crimea - something along the lines of having "special status" within a sovereign Ukraine. Russian forces leave peacefully. Ethnic Russians who lived there prior to 2014 are allowed to remain. Ukraine eventually joins the EU and NATO. Russia withers. The world's concern then focuses on ensuring that Russia does not collapse into civil war and anarchy, which no one wants. But that's another story.

My two cents

Thank you for your thoughtful response.
I don’t know if Ukraine will ever want to negotiate Crimean status unless they have to.
I just feel very bad for the people of Crimea who are tied up in all this. And it would be a shame if there’s destruction comparable to Mariupol or Bakhmut.

[Anonymous]

I've ignored this thread but I will weigh in.

Russia will probably win if we stay on the current path. The US is funding the war, Europe has little skin in the game and is aggressively ambivalent about supporting Ukraine. If the white house goes right in 2024, I predict this ends by Russia taking the Donbas and possibly more. If the left wins, we may see an expansion of the war and a much longer time-line for resolution.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know who is reading this, maybe it’s a bunch of Fox News Tucker types who somehow love Russia and it’s authoritarian ways and wish to emulate that stateside or maybe it’s some paid posters in a computer center in red square who idiotically try to spread their venomous anti-Ukraine propaganda, but fk you.

I am so happy the Ukrainians are showing you idiots what it’s all about. I’m glad hicks in flyover country who are being fed bs about how Ukrainians are Russian spreading people anyway and we should totally not care about Ukraine and basically “it’s not our problem”.

Shut up.

It is our problem and I’m glad we stuck with our allies. I’m glad Mitch McConnell, turtle that he is, stuck with Ukraine. I’m glad we didn’t listen to Russia living trump and we stuck with Ukraine. You people need to shape up. Get with the fking program. You can either be pot autocrat or pro western democracy and standing with our allies. So stand up.

LOL you sound just like W Bush.

Would you like the list of autocrats the US describes as dear friends and allies?

And you sound like an ignorant Fox News viewer, a rabid Christian nationalist enraptured with Putin’s strongman aura or a paid Russian troll.

Pssst... the left has a new-ish (3-4 years now) talking point on this. It is now the left that dislikes gulf state dictators. Biden famously snubbed Saudi Arabia and now they are hosting Russian and Chinese officials and they have announced that their monogamous relationship with us is over. The right is furious that the left is anti-Gulf state allies.

You are entitled to an independent view on this that is divorced from partisan politics. But, you're dead wrong that the pp sounds like a "Fox News consumer."

Lol it is the Saudis who snubbed Biden, not the other way round.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've ignored this thread but I will weigh in.

Russia will probably win if we stay on the current path. The US is funding the war, Europe has little skin in the game and is aggressively ambivalent about supporting Ukraine. If the white house goes right in 2024, I predict this ends by Russia taking the Donbas and possibly more. If the left wins, we may see an expansion of the war and a much longer time-line for resolution.

I don’t think Russia can win. It’s either defeated and forced to become a more or less west controlled regime (it will be too weak to act out like it’s doing now), or it works out some sort of truce/status quo and “wins” in the sense that Ukrainians are unhappy with the outcome - but becomes another Iran at best or N Korea at worst.

[Anonymous]

I can't wait to find out what super embarrassing thing Russia did to itself last night. Something brought the troll farms out while we were all sleeping.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know who is reading this, maybe it’s a bunch of Fox News Tucker types who somehow love Russia and it’s authoritarian ways and wish to emulate that stateside or maybe it’s some paid posters in a computer center in red square who idiotically try to spread their venomous anti-Ukraine propaganda, but fk you.

I am so happy the Ukrainians are showing you idiots what it’s all about. I’m glad hicks in flyover country who are being fed bs about how Ukrainians are Russian spreading people anyway and we should totally not care about Ukraine and basically “it’s not our problem”.

Shut up.

It is our problem and I’m glad we stuck with our allies. I’m glad Mitch McConnell, turtle that he is, stuck with Ukraine. I’m glad we didn’t listen to Russia living trump and we stuck with Ukraine. You people need to shape up. Get with the fking program. You can either be pot autocrat or pro western democracy and standing with our allies. So stand up.

LOL you sound just like W Bush.

Would you like the list of autocrats the US describes as dear friends and allies?

And you sound like an ignorant Fox News viewer, a rabid Christian nationalist enraptured with Putin’s strongman aura or a paid Russian troll.

Pssst... the left has a new-ish (3-4 years now) talking point on this. It is now the left that dislikes gulf state dictators. Biden famously snubbed Saudi Arabia and now they are hosting Russian and Chinese officials and they have announced that their monogamous relationship with us is over. The right is furious that the left is anti-Gulf state allies.

You are entitled to an independent view on this that is divorced from partisan politics. But, you're dead wrong that the pp sounds like a "Fox News consumer."

Hate to break it to you but the Saudis have been playing us for a long time. Or maybe you forgot about things like the Khashoggi bone saw incident?
And any country now seeking to align itself with Russia as Russia implodes over Ukraine is foolish.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I can't wait to find out what super embarrassing thing Russia did to itself last night. Something brought the troll farms out while we were all sleeping.

Right? There’s an awful lot of oddly supportive posts of the Russia, but when it just reads to me like someone desperately seeking validation. Ukraine is completely besting you right now. Your economy is in the shtter. Europe is finally bulking up their defenses and shoring up their alliances with each other.

I, mean, admit it. You suck. You’re very good at influencing stupid red state people in like Alabama who lean Christian nationalist authoritarian anyway, but really Russia has backed itself into a corner with this ill-conceived attack on Ukraine. I don’t get why they don’t leave. It would be over if they just left.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know who is reading this, maybe it’s a bunch of Fox News Tucker types who somehow love Russia and it’s authoritarian ways and wish to emulate that stateside or maybe it’s some paid posters in a computer center in red square who idiotically try to spread their venomous anti-Ukraine propaganda, but fk you.

I am so happy the Ukrainians are showing you idiots what it’s all about. I’m glad hicks in flyover country who are being fed bs about how Ukrainians are Russian spreading people anyway and we should totally not care about Ukraine and basically “it’s not our problem”.

Shut up.

It is our problem and I’m glad we stuck with our allies. I’m glad Mitch McConnell, turtle that he is, stuck with Ukraine. I’m glad we didn’t listen to Russia living trump and we stuck with Ukraine. You people need to shape up. Get with the fking program. You can either be pot autocrat or pro western democracy and standing with our allies. So stand up.

LOL you sound just like W Bush.

Would you like the list of autocrats the US describes as dear friends and allies?

And you sound like an ignorant Fox News viewer, a rabid Christian nationalist enraptured with Putin’s strongman aura or a paid Russian troll.

Pssst... the left has a new-ish (3-4 years now) talking point on this. It is now the left that dislikes gulf state dictators. Biden famously snubbed Saudi Arabia and now they are hosting Russian and Chinese officials and they have announced that their monogamous relationship with us is over. The right is furious that the left is anti-Gulf state allies.

You are entitled to an independent view on this that is divorced from partisan politics. But, you're dead wrong that the pp sounds like a "Fox News consumer."

Lol it is the Saudis who snubbed Biden, not the other way round.

Biden literally campaigned on a promise to make Saudi Arabia a global "pariah".

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/08/democrats-biden-saudi-trip-00037891

I think that counts as starting it. Saudi has been among the US's closest allies in the world and this was an abrupt change to our foreign policy, which created an opening for Russia and China in the region.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know who is reading this, maybe it’s a bunch of Fox News Tucker types who somehow love Russia and it’s authoritarian ways and wish to emulate that stateside or maybe it’s some paid posters in a computer center in red square who idiotically try to spread their venomous anti-Ukraine propaganda, but fk you.

I am so happy the Ukrainians are showing you idiots what it’s all about. I’m glad hicks in flyover country who are being fed bs about how Ukrainians are Russian spreading people anyway and we should totally not care about Ukraine and basically “it’s not our problem”.

Shut up.

It is our problem and I’m glad we stuck with our allies. I’m glad Mitch McConnell, turtle that he is, stuck with Ukraine. I’m glad we didn’t listen to Russia living trump and we stuck with Ukraine. You people need to shape up. Get with the fking program. You can either be pot autocrat or pro western democracy and standing with our allies. So stand up.

LOL you sound just like W Bush.

Would you like the list of autocrats the US describes as dear friends and allies?

And you sound like an ignorant Fox News viewer, a rabid Christian nationalist enraptured with Putin’s strongman aura or a paid Russian troll.

Pssst... the left has a new-ish (3-4 years now) talking point on this. It is now the left that dislikes gulf state dictators. Biden famously snubbed Saudi Arabia and now they are hosting Russian and Chinese officials and they have announced that their monogamous relationship with us is over. The right is furious that the left is anti-Gulf state allies.

You are entitled to an independent view on this that is divorced from partisan politics. But, you're dead wrong that the pp sounds like a "Fox News consumer."

Hate to break it to you but the Saudis have been playing us for a long time. Or maybe you forgot about things like the Khashoggi bone saw incident?
And any country now seeking to align itself with Russia as Russia implodes over Ukraine is foolish.

The Khashoggi killing was bad, but nations kill people all the time and we don't end our relationships over it. What's more, Biden had to walk it back because it was too difficult on the US, but the damage has been done.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know who is reading this, maybe it’s a bunch of Fox News Tucker types who somehow love Russia and it’s authoritarian ways and wish to emulate that stateside or maybe it’s some paid posters in a computer center in red square who idiotically try to spread their venomous anti-Ukraine propaganda, but fk you.

I am so happy the Ukrainians are showing you idiots what it’s all about. I’m glad hicks in flyover country who are being fed bs about how Ukrainians are Russian spreading people anyway and we should totally not care about Ukraine and basically “it’s not our problem”.

Shut up.

It is our problem and I’m glad we stuck with our allies. I’m glad Mitch McConnell, turtle that he is, stuck with Ukraine. I’m glad we didn’t listen to Russia living trump and we stuck with Ukraine. You people need to shape up. Get with the fking program. You can either be pot autocrat or pro western democracy and standing with our allies. So stand up.

Agree with all this, but knock it off with the "flyover country" crap. Your disdain should be directed only on the Fox News Tucker types-- who live everywhere-- and not on broad swaths of American geography. It undermines your credibility and effectiveness.

(BTW, "flyover country" is full of people whose relatives came from Ukraine and other Central and East European countries. They/We fully support robust aid to Ukraine.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

Ukraine never really had much going on for them economically to begin with.

If Ukraine can sever ties with Russia and Russian oligarchs and Russian interference and straighten up their financial institutions, investment from the West would pour into their economy. It is a big country with resources and natural trading partners in the EU.

This is magical thinking. Ukraine's economic integration with EU benefits primarily the EU, who love cheap goods and low wages. It is not designed to benefit Ukraine. Europeans don't want extra competitors and apart from slogans, do not really see Ukrainians as peers.

Um, no. The “Europeans” you refer to are the French and Germans, who likely do not see the Ukrainians as peers; that is true.

But the center of European political and economic power has, and will continue, to shift away from Paris and Berlin.

Further, Poland - a traditional cultural enemy of Ukraine - has become Ukraine’s chief backer and ally. A Polish-Ukrainian-Czech alliance would soon overshadow the lynchpin: France and Germany. Ukraine has astounding natural resources and on top of that, it was always the technological brain-trust of the USSR; their nuclear weapons and advanced systems were once made there. Their flagship - the Moskva- was built by Ukraine, and sunk by an advanced Ukrainian nuptune ASM.

Ukraine will become a member of the EU and NATO. Whether Russia breaks up in a civil war among rival oligarchs remains to be seen.

If that were true, Ukraine would not have become a primarily agrarian nation post-USSR breakup.

Without wishing to hurt the feeling of the world' top producer of pickled cucumbers, "Poland" and "economic power" has rarely been mentioned in the same sentence and it is not clear why it would, when Poland's products and services aren't entering or dominating new markets.

Ukraine has excellent software developers, engineers, and are leaders in many areas of technology and manufacturing such as aerospace and shipbuilding.

Leaders in what field? Please explain with numbers of market capitalization. Or maybe name one area of technology and manufacturing in which Ukraine is a world leader.

Pretty much anything good that the Soviet Union and Russian Federation ever designed and built came from Ukraine.

So why is Ukraine known as a primarily agrarian nation?

I mean name one Ukrainian non-agri export.

You're the only one here incorrectly insisting their only export is agriculture and that they are not known for any other commodities or commercial products.
Several other people here have pointed out this is not the case. Your own ignorance in the matter is not our problem.

It surely isn't enough to make it true to say that it is. When someone is "known" for someone or a "leader" in something, it would be confirmed by the numbers - sales, capitalization, rankings etc., rather than DCUM opinions. No one provided these yet.

You sound determined to remain ignorant.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I can't wait to find out what super embarrassing thing Russia did to itself last night. Something brought the troll farms out while we were all sleeping.

Probably the shocking loss of 4 aircraft yesterday, inside Russia's borders. We don't know whether it was friendly fire by nervous Russians or a very successful operation by the Ukrainians. Seems most like the latter, since the coincidence of all 4 in one day is hard to imagine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've ignored this thread but I will weigh in.

Russia will probably win if we stay on the current path. The US is funding the war, Europe has little skin in the game and is aggressively ambivalent about supporting Ukraine. If the white house goes right in 2024, I predict this ends by Russia taking the Donbas and possibly more. If the left wins, we may see an expansion of the war and a much longer time-line for resolution.

You're wrong. Europe is heavily invested in this war. Even Germany, which was a little wobbly in the beginning, just announced a $3 billion military aid package for Ukraine, including 30 additional Leopard tanks. In fact, Zelensky met with Chancellor Scholz today in Berlin. Additionally, the European arms industry has been in overdrive this past year to ramp up production for Ukraine. Over the next few months, the EU will deliver more than a million rounds of artillery shells and missiles to Ukraine. Even Switzerland just changed its laws so its weapons can be sent to Ukraine. Nothing has united NATO more than Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In fact it caused Sweden and Finland to both join NATO. And if you spent even a minute watching this year's Eurovision Song Contest, which was essentially one long kitschy tribute to Ukraine, you would have seen how popular support for Ukraine is presently in Europe.
.
When people say "the US is funding this war, Europe has little skin in the game and is aggressively ambivalent about supporting Ukraine" I can tell that these are people lost in the right wing echo chamber - Facebook, Fox News, AM radio talk shows. As a percentage of GDP, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, the UK, the Netherlands, Norway, Czechia, Poland and Bulgaria have all provided more aid than the US has. Finland, Denmark and Sweden are close behind. Italy is the real laggard - unsurprisingly. Not because of any love for Russia, but because they change governments every year and can barely pick up the trash. But support for Ukraine is extremely high in Europe, particularly in the countries that matter.