Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

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05/13/2023 02:37

Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

quote

Anonymous

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My take: Ukrainians are allowed one last major battle, then forced to negotiate. After that, a slow and steady guerrilla war is fought while there is some semblance of pause in this conflict, Israeli-Palestinian style.
Russia is still under sanctions though some od them are quietly not enforced or even cancelled. Ukraine gets weapons but only those enough to stop the Russians from advancing.
Russia continues deteriorating under sanctions, while Ukraine is more or less stabilized but never reaches its former economic indicators.
It goes on for decades.

This certainly isn't going to go on for decades. This is nothing like Israel-Palestine. Russia just on its own is deep into a doom loop. It's a demographic catastrophe that the war in Ukraine has only accelerated. Almost every young professional university-educated male, particularly in IT, left the country at the outset of the war. And they're not coming back. What remains is an increasingly old and barely literate population. An incredibly high percentage of Russian men are afflicted with alcoholism. Economically, for thirty years Russia has managed to get by as Europe's gas station. Europe isn't buying anymore. They're done will never go back to being dependent on Russian oil and gas. Selling deeply discounted oil to India does not support a superpower. Politically, there is no "system." It's a dictatorship. Putin is ill. The moment he leaves the scene, chaos reigns. Medvedev is a drunk. The rest are warlords. It's not going to go well.

And then there is the war in Ukraine. Best estimates are that Russia has suffered roughly 200,000 casualties. 70,000 dead and the rest crippled or injured. Ukraine has certainly suffered staggering losses themselves. But they are fighting to save their families and their land. There is no higher motivation to fight. Most of the advanced western weapons systems promised to Ukraine have arrived - Patriot missile systems, Leopard tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, and very significantly, UK-supplied Storm Shadow long distance missiles, which are five times more powerful than HIMARS and have a longer range. Just as importantly, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained up to NATO standards at bases throughout Europe and even the US, where they are being trained to use Abrams tanks, which should arrive in Ukraine by the Fall.

Meanwhile, the Russian military has fallen apart. More than 2500 tanks gone. At present rates of destruction, all their APCs will be wiped out by the end of the year. Shortages of ammunition. And on and on and on. None of this can be easily replenished. Military leadership is weak and disorganized. Wagner and regular army do not coordinate anymore. The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. In recent days, Ukrainian forces have conducted probing attacks throughout the front, including in Bakhmut. In all cases, Russian forces were destroyed or fled. On Russian Telegram channels, they are in blind panic.

I'm increasingly confident that the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive will turn into a rout and this war will be over by then end of the year.

That sure is a lot of words. Let me point out that even though Palestine isn’t exactly the strongest nation, it’s not going away, and Russia won’t as well, even when it bleeds out under sanctions.
As to your last paragraph, how do you think the counteroffensive will end? And how will the war end.