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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Trump will end this terrible war.  The day cannot come soon enough.[/quote]
Voting for trump would be against all my interests but I am seriously considering voting for him just to end the war. I think both countries’ governments are bad, though Russia’s is worse, but I want the war to stop and ordinary people to stop bearing the brunt of their political battles. [/quote]

Hah!  Trump would love to turn the US INTO Russia, but he'll never get another chance.  Trump will never again be President of anything, well, except maybe the Federal Prison Golf Club?

In the meantime, Wagner is "using their ammunition to stop the fleeing servicemen of the Russian army"
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1657126013002809346?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Ukrainian tanks are getting better and better as every day passes, and the question is what does Putin have left and what can he get his hands on?  He might be pulling weapons from South Africa now - a few of which could be worrisome (ex. 155mm howitzers, thermal imagers, MRL, MILAN ER AT, Leopard 2's, Modernized Centurion tanks, drones, SAM's, etc.)

https://news.yahoo.com/promised-challenger-2-tanks-already-131912551.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-deliver-abrams-tanks-ukrainian-084900199.html

Just as Palestine is locked in a battle with Israel that went on for years, there is a very real possibility that this conflict will drag out as well.  Russia will need to expand southward if they want to rebuild the Soviet Union again, but given how well they do in Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the 'stans' (Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Tajikistan), etc. they're pretty screwed.  Sure, the Russian military can try to keep taking Ukraine, but losing 1/4 million child-rearing-aged men a year is probably a bad idea.  Besides, has ANYONE EVER seen the Swiss take sides before?  You know things are bad when even the conflict-adverse, money-loving Swiss bankers flip you the bird.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/swiss-parliament-passes-decision-export-050752690.html

The way I see this resolving with minimal future losses is once the Ukrainians drive out Russia from their territory (by force, since the Russian Government seems too stupid to pull out themselves), then either the UN but more likely NATO, establishes a no-fire buffer zone in the currently occupied territories.  If the Russian military is dumb enough to shoot at NATO troops, NATO (unlike the UN) shoots back, so the best move would be for Russia to lick it's wounds while Ukraine reconstructs.  UNHCR helps repatriate Ukrainian refugees and brokers the return of Russian bodies scattered across the country, OSCE helps re-integrate the formerly-occupied territories back into the governing system of Ukraine, and NATO De-mining helps Ukraine re-establish territory safe to live in.  In the meantime, Ukraine, now bristling with western weaponry make's it's formal bid to join NATO to keep this from ever happening again.[/quote]

The question is, when will the Ukraine be able to drive Russia out? What’s your theory? [/quote]

Ooh.  Let me rub the crystal ball..  hang on..

Two years at the earliest, if they play it smart (and they have so far); but there are issues.  First, once they near the border of Russia, there's a choice to be made.  It will largely depend on whether Ukraine decides to hit ammo dumps, transport, HQ's, etc. in Russian territory.  But if they don't they could put units in range of Russian artillery and aircraft that they can't preemptively strike so would be dangerous to move too quickly.  Better to just hammer Russians in an attrition war like they've been doing, since they're very successful at it.  It will force Russia's hand to try another offensive and call up even more conscripts.  Russia is at 1.5 M call-up and already showed they had to scrape the bottom of the barrel.  The Russians will probably continue to rotate personnel like they've been doing, which will cause a domino effect amongst all Russian military branches of services.  My calculation is Russia absolutely maxes out at 6 M call up (which should force a total economy / productivity collapse?), and well before that their economy should slow to unstable or even unsustainable productivity rates that impact the Russian government's ability to effectively govern.  Second, Crimean peninsula is a fortress so they'll need to cut it off completely.  Not too difficult to do if they can hold and reinforce the land routes and take out Kerch bridge; then they need to be patient and wait it out.  Unfortunately, this also gives the Russians time to re-arm, train, re-supply as well; which along with Putin's health, returning refugees, etc. are wildcards.[/quote]

So basically two years it will be like it is now, with offensives, counteroffensives and all? Sanctions will be added, Russians will be drafted, but overall it will be like this past year? [/quote]

[05/13/2023 15:47]
Not sure who this is but your napalm theory is 'right out.'  Would kill too many civilians.  Unless you're a Russian trying to drive a wedge between Ukraine and the West?

[05/13/2023 17:43]
Yeah, you're talking to the napalm guy, who's nuts.

Back to the original programming.

No, not like this past year.  The major difference is Putin is running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat.  Also, I hope and pray it's two years, because I worry about year 3.  A lot of dynamics change then.  That's when I think the probability of really bad scenarios increase to the point where they're unavoidable.  I hope I'm wrong.

Ukraine will probably take two years'ish before there is 'relative stability' in Ukraine sufficient to insert peacekeeping forces.  This year the Ukrainians got tons of gear but are using it wisely.  Ukraine is playing it really smart.  They'll attrit until Russia realizes it's losing it's forward manpower soldier-by-soldier and land it captured inch-by-inch.  Their front line troops will be whittled down until there's only wisps of defenses left.  Ukraine could take back some territoriy, but not Crimea this year.  I think Crimea will get cut off at some point though.

Russia is just letting their front line troops take the hits.  Ukraine is taking advantage of this Russian strategic error.

By the time Russia realizes their mistake and attempt to launch another invasion / attack, their commanders and troops will be in a panic.  Why?

Top 5 largest suppliers of tanks to #Ukraine 
1: Poland - ~325
2: Germany - ~110
3: The Netherlands - 85 
4: U.S. - 76 
5: Czechia - ~50  
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1657329610168705024

List of heavy weapons sent to Ukraine:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

Haven't seen piles of burning hulks of Leopard 2's, M1's, have you?  It's because they haven't even been committed into battle yet.

Imagine you're a Russian commander who comes up for a look-see after an artillery barrage and a hundred state-of-the-art tanks start rolling up to eye over your positions with their thermal imagers?  If you've ever been on a business-end of a Leopard 2 or M1, you can definitely feel their inner beast from miles away.  The conscripts will likely flee in panic after hearing the sabots knock out their prized T-90's, and even the veterans will have trouble not pooping their pants knowing what comes 6 seconds later..

Sanctions?  I would pull the threads of Russian banking.  They're getting money laundered but the question is who.  India?  40 billion?  China?  Without taking a cut?  Brazil?  Is that how they're influencing US politics?  I would shut down all Russian diplomatic presence except minimal UN staff.  I would shut down the embassy in Washington.  Cut off Russian spies in the US as much as possible.  Until the Russian spy network in the US is exposed and dismantled, I would expect continued election and local politics interference.  Free up the FBI agents watching Russian officials to go pursue leads.  If you need to talk to the Russians, use the bat phone (or Fox news.. or just Tweet/Telegram the Kremlin.. they seem to watch that okay..)

Don't expect Russians to 'surrender'.  Expect the best that can be achieved is 'ambivalence'.  Russians pull out after 'having taught the Ukrainians a lesson,' or whatever their propagandists spin.  But yes, within three years, I believe that Russia as we know it will be a very different place.  Unless trajectory changes, a very scary place.  I hope I'm wrong.[/quote]

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