Is $TSLA a buy here?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

P/E 250, suggesting long term revenue or profit will be at least double current level, -11% YoY revenue.

Make it make sense.

People have run the numbers. With FSD and robo taxis there will be many people who don't buy cars and who call up a robotaxi. Right now there are no earnings from this business, but you could reasonably expect a pretty good pile of earnings from this in maybe about 2 years. That could halve the P/E or even more. Plus lots of people view Tesla as a long term hold (10+ years).

You are placing bets about what is going to happen in the future. Who will be the competition? If you put $$ into Tesla in 2015, you have made about 20 times what you put in. People see this as a visionary company. People snickered in 2015 about Tesla and EVs (and now look at how the whole world is going to EVs). I would not bet against Tesla.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am also skeptical of BYD having success here. Americans like trucks and large SUVs, I don’t think an electric sedan is going to take off.

You can be skeptical all you want, but data show that BYD is the most popular EV in the world. I've seen them and would happily buy one if they entered the US market, especially since they're less than half the cost of a Tesla.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am an casualty actuary. We are praying for self driving car to go mainstream sooner than later. When we look at data, the computer does a really good job.

Once self driving car goes mainstream, if you are human driver your auto insurance rate will be so high that you will have no choice but to give up your car.

It does a better job than many humans because many humans are drunk or on drugs. It is worse than an average sober driver.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
There are no ICE cars that are fully self driving and probably won't be. That might be the more significant factor driving EV purchases in the future.

Once you have self driving, there is no going back. It's a true gift. I never thought I would be paying for it, but here I am paying for it and really enjoying the stress that has been taken off me. I use it every single time I go out in the car now whether it's a trip to the store or a 5-6 hour trip. It's life changing.

Level 5 or die. Requiring the driver to jump in to intervene in complex high risk situations is the worst outcome, as you will lose situational awareness and over a long enough time, your driving skill with atrophy so you will be unable to react appropriately.

FSD is still Level 2. Talk to me in two decades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


People have run the numbers. With FSD and robo taxis there will be many people who don't buy cars and who call up a robotaxi. Right now there are no earnings from this business, but you could reasonably expect a pretty good pile of earnings from this in maybe about 2 years. That could halve the P/E or even more. Plus lots of people view Tesla as a long term hold (10+ years).

You are placing bets about what is going to happen in the future. Who will be the competition? If you put $$ into Tesla in 2015, you have made about 20 times what you put in. People see this as a visionary company. People snickered in 2015 about Tesla and EVs (and now look at how the whole world is going to EVs). I would not bet against Tesla.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predict...ehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Okay, but I said it is a long term investment (10+ years) so maybe my 2 year statement was a bit early. That said, it makes progress . . . maybe slower than people would like, but it's progressing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

There are no ICE cars that are fully self driving and probably won't be. That might be the more significant factor driving EV purchases in the future.

Once you have self driving, there is no going back. It's a true gift. I never thought I would be paying for it, but here I am paying for it and really enjoying the stress that has been taken off me. I use it every single time I go out in the car now whether it's a trip to the store or a 5-6 hour trip. It's life changing.


Level 5 or die. Requiring the driver to jump in to intervene in complex high risk situations is the worst outcome, as you will lose situational awareness and over a long enough time, your driving skill with atrophy so you will be unable to react appropriately.

FSD is still Level 2. Talk to me in two decades.

Here's the thing. If you drive a lot in your area, you know where the complex situations are. I know, for example, that road construction is going on just outside my neighborhood. Although I am pretty sure FSD can handle it, I don't put on the FSD there. I have not lost situational awareness . . . in fact my situational awareness is better! Do I like FSD . . . yes. Why? Because it handles almost all situations faster and better than I do. I am 67 years old and my reflexes are not nearly as good as the car. It can change lanes more safely because it "sees" everything. I have to check mirrors, turn my head and that takes time. The car does this much more quickly. Do I want it to be level 5? Of course. But it is very, very good and I have come to know situations where I need to be watching more carefully. It has taken a whole lot of stress out of driving for me right now. I use it every single time I drive now because it has gotten that good. It's great for expressway driving as it maintains speed, changes lanes, tells you when exits are coming and executes them, merges very well. That's really worth it driving on the beltway. It has never made a mistake there.

[Anonymous]

FSD (Supervised) was approved in China about 6 months ago. This week it was approved in Australia and China. This video was made in China 6 months ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlz4s36J0CA

[Anonymous]

^Australia and New Zealand

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

There are no ICE cars that are fully self driving and probably won't be. That might be the more significant factor driving EV purchases in the future.

Once you have self driving, there is no going back. It's a true gift. I never thought I would be paying for it, but here I am paying for it and really enjoying the stress that has been taken off me. I use it every single time I go out in the car now whether it's a trip to the store or a 5-6 hour trip. It's life changing.


Level 5 or die. Requiring the driver to jump in to intervene in complex high risk situations is the worst outcome, as you will lose situational awareness and over a long enough time, your driving skill with atrophy so you will be unable to react appropriately.

FSD is still Level 2. Talk to me in two decades.

Here's the thing. If you drive a lot in your area, you know where the complex situations are. I know, for example, that road construction is going on just outside my neighborhood. Although I am pretty sure FSD can handle it, I don't put on the FSD there. I have not lost situational awareness . . . in fact my situational awareness is better! Do I like FSD . . . yes. Why? Because it handles almost all situations faster and better than I do. I am 67 years old and my reflexes are not nearly as good as the car. It can change lanes more safely because it "sees" everything. I have to check mirrors, turn my head and that takes time. The car does this much more quickly. Do I want it to be level 5? Of course. But it is very, very good and I have come to know situations where I need to be watching more carefully. It has taken a whole lot of stress out of driving for me right now. I use it every single time I drive now because it has gotten that good. It's great for expressway driving as it maintains speed, changes lanes, tells you when exits are coming and executes them, merges very well. That's really worth it driving on the beltway. It has never made a mistake there.

I will agree with you that most 70 year olds shouldn’t be driving. FSD could be better than that cohort.

Sure I think on highways FSD is a good choice it’s essentially cruise control. Way simpler problem space.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


Here's the thing. If you drive a lot in your area, you know where the complex situations are. I know, for example, that road construction is going on just outside my neighborhood. Although I am pretty sure FSD can handle it, I don't put on the FSD there. I have not lost situational awareness . . . in fact my situational awareness is better! Do I like FSD . . . yes. Why? Because it handles almost all situations faster and better than I do. I am 67 years old and my reflexes are not nearly as good as the car. It can change lanes more safely because it "sees" everything. I have to check mirrors, turn my head and that takes time. The car does this much more quickly. Do I want it to be level 5? Of course. But it is very, very good and I have come to know situations where I need to be watching more carefully. It has taken a whole lot of stress out of driving for me right now. I use it every single time I drive now because it has gotten that good. It's great for expressway driving as it maintains speed, changes lanes, tells you when exits are coming and executes them, merges very well. That's really worth it driving on the beltway. It has never made a mistake there.


I will agree with you that most 70 year olds shouldn’t be driving. FSD could be better than that cohort.

Sure I think on highways FSD is a good choice it’s essentially cruise control. Way simpler problem space.

It's more than cruise control. It changes lanes, keeps you in the lane, exits the highway, merges. Cruise control does not do that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


Here's the thing. If you drive a lot in your area, you know where the complex situations are. I know, for example, that road construction is going on just outside my neighborhood. Although I am pretty sure FSD can handle it, I don't put on the FSD there. I have not lost situational awareness . . . in fact my situational awareness is better! Do I like FSD . . . yes. Why? Because it handles almost all situations faster and better than I do. I am 67 years old and my reflexes are not nearly as good as the car. It can change lanes more safely because it "sees" everything. I have to check mirrors, turn my head and that takes time. The car does this much more quickly. Do I want it to be level 5? Of course. But it is very, very good and I have come to know situations where I need to be watching more carefully. It has taken a whole lot of stress out of driving for me right now. I use it every single time I drive now because it has gotten that good. It's great for expressway driving as it maintains speed, changes lanes, tells you when exits are coming and executes them, merges very well. That's really worth it driving on the beltway. It has never made a mistake there.


I will agree with you that most 70 year olds shouldn’t be driving. FSD could be better than that cohort.

Sure I think on highways FSD is a good choice it’s essentially cruise control. Way simpler problem space.

And that makes FSD important for many, many people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:


Here's the thing. If you drive a lot in your area, you know where the complex situations are. I know, for example, that road construction is going on just outside my neighborhood. Although I am pretty sure FSD can handle it, I don't put on the FSD there. I have not lost situational awareness . . . in fact my situational awareness is better! Do I like FSD . . . yes. Why? Because it handles almost all situations faster and better than I do. I am 67 years old and my reflexes are not nearly as good as the car. It can change lanes more safely because it "sees" everything. I have to check mirrors, turn my head and that takes time. The car does this much more quickly. Do I want it to be level 5? Of course. But it is very, very good and I have come to know situations where I need to be watching more carefully. It has taken a whole lot of stress out of driving for me right now. I use it every single time I drive now because it has gotten that good. It's great for expressway driving as it maintains speed, changes lanes, tells you when exits are coming and executes them, merges very well. That's really worth it driving on the beltway. It has never made a mistake there.


I will agree with you that most 70 year olds shouldn’t be driving. FSD could be better than that cohort.

Sure I think on highways FSD is a good choice it’s essentially cruise control. Way simpler problem space.

And that makes FSD important for many, many people.

Yes, when we get Level 5 it will be a game changer.

FSD is Level 2

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


And that makes FSD important for many, many people.


Yes, when we get Level 5 it will be a game changer.

FSD is Level 2

Maybe YOU need level 5, but lots of people enjoy level 2. Driving is a very personal experience. Level 2 has already made an impact.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

FSD (Supervised) was approved in China about 6 months ago. This week it was approved in Australia and China. This video was made in China 6 months ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlz4s36J0CA

Oh good, that means China has all the source code and can build their own FSD that will be more trustworthy and safe than Tesla's.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:


FSD (Supervised) was approved in China about 6 months ago. This week it was approved in Australia and China. This video was made in China 6 months ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlz4s36J0CA



Oh good, that means China has all the source code and can build their own FSD that will be more trustworthy and safe than Tesla's.

First you say Tesla FSD is no good. Now you're saying it's so good that it should not be built in China because China will get the "source code". Oooookay.