Is $TSLA a buy here?

[Anonymous]

I am also skeptical of BYD having success here. Americans like trucks and large SUVs, I don’t think an electric sedan is going to take off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Electric Vehicle stocks are “buy and hold” stocks. The writing is on the wall: the younger generation, when they get political power in about 10 years, will insist all government and government contractor vehicles operating in an urban area must be electric.

These people, indoctrinated by our schools that fossil fuels are killing Mother Goddess Earth, will pass every law they can to make EVs the de facto vehicle to drive.

TSLA is a stock that could very well hit $900 a share. Then again, if Elon quits/retires/dies, mismanagement could cause it to crash into the teens or 20s.

It is your responsibility, like those who owned Kodak stock back in the day, to keep abreast of the technology and trade accordingly.

You and your weird politics. EVs are just a car not some life altering political thing. Who brainwashed you?

Tesla will not be around in ten years. Their products has been surpassed by other manufacturers. There is no way for them to catch up to the other manufacturers.

The reason EVs will be 75-85% of the market in ten years is because EVs are superior to ICE cars for 75-85% of the users. The new model EVs coming out in 2 years will have ranges in the 600-700 miles with charging taking under 15 minutes. They will also cost about 1/4 to 1/2 the price of an ICE. Seriously self driving car with lidar/camera technology is already standard on the majority of Chinese EV cars cost $15,000 or more. Tesla said it could not be done because it would be too expensive. Price will determine what type of car people drive. EV take 1/2 the labor hours to manufacture.

The battery battle happening oversea will determine the future winners and losers in the automotive sector. Will solid state or lithium batteries win out? Both types have a long way to go before reaching their technological maximum efficiency. Right now the only way to improve ICE cars is to have the gas engine power electric motors. The ICE is at its maximum technological efficiency.

No laws need to be past forcing people to drive EVs. What will happen is the younger generation will just choose EVs. We have ICE Porsche and electric car. My kids fight to drive the EV. They take it on trips where I would have range anxiety. They have learned to drive on EVs and a really nice high end Porsche. They think the Porsche is sluggish, noisy, dirty and hate going to the gas station. The Chinese EV are taking over the developing world. There people buy EVs as their first car and are learning to drive on EVs.

97% of the people who own an EV will not go back to an ICE.
.

We are in agreement: young people will overwhelmingly choose an EV but I disagree regarding TSLA. It may merge or get bought out (by Chrysler-Fiat?) but I doubt go BK.

I expect to see legislation passed that all new homes be built with an EV charger—that would increase their use. It is the main reason I do not own an EV; I am unwilling to have the electrical work done on my home, which would be awkward and expensive.

There is indeed a political thrust to end or severely limit vehicles powered by gasoline, diesel, and bio-fuels. (AFPM, “Gas Car Bans & Electric Vehicle Mandates”):

EPA’s light duty vehicle regulation, CAFE standards, and California’s ACC II regulations to ban gas and diesel cars by 2035.

This is why liberals/progressives are so despised by the majority of the country: they are little tyrants wanting to dictate what people can eat, drive, or speak, and they do it by apparatchiks in unelected bureaucracies.

I am sure you will be shocked to learn that AFPM (oil refiners) are lying about gas car bans and EV mandates— just like all the Republicans are as well. EPA and NHTSA never had a gas car ban or an EV mandate so once again all this hate is based on lies. They lie while ripping us off and ruining the country and you applaud them.

[Anonymous]

There are no ICE cars that are fully self driving and probably won't be. That might be the more significant factor driving EV purchases in the future.

Once you have self driving, there is no going back. It's a true gift. I never thought I would be paying for it, but here I am paying for it and really enjoying the stress that has been taken off me. I use it every single time I go out in the car now whether it's a trip to the store or a 5-6 hour trip. It's life changing.

[Anonymous]

^ Tesla self driving is now about to introduce version 14. Version 13 is pretty darn good so I imagine version 14 will be really good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
^ Tesla self driving is now about to introduce version 14. Version 13 is pretty darn good so I imagine version 14 will be really good.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-opens-tesla-probe-after-more-crashes-involving-its-so-called-full-self-driving-technology

"dozens of incidents in which its vehicles ran red lights or drove on the wrong side of the road, sometimes crashing into other vehicles and injuring people."

Sounds amazing!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
^ Tesla self driving is now about to introduce version 14. Version 13 is pretty darn good so I imagine version 14 will be really good.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-opens-tesla-probe-after-more-crashes-involving-its-so-called-full-self-driving-technology

"dozens of incidents in which its vehicles ran red lights or drove on the wrong side of the road, sometimes crashing into other vehicles and injuring people."

Sounds amazing!

Also, I love the term:

"Full Self Driving (Supervised)"

which is like saying:

"I can throw a baseball 95 mph (really 50 mph)"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
There are no ICE cars that are fully self driving and probably won't be. That might be the more significant factor driving EV purchases in the future.

Once you have self driving, there is no going back. It's a true gift. I never thought I would be paying for it, but here I am paying for it and really enjoying the stress that has been taken off me. I use it every single time I go out in the car now whether it's a trip to the store or a 5-6 hour trip. It's life changing.

Going to be life changing when your self driving car takes out multiple pedestrians too. You get to pay for all that liability since Tesla requires you be ready to instantly correct the car's navigational errors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

^ Tesla self driving is now about to introduce version 14. Version 13 is pretty darn good so I imagine version 14 will be really good.


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-open...f-driving-technology

"dozens of incidents in which its vehicles ran red lights or drove on the wrong side of the road, sometimes crashing into other vehicles and injuring people."

Sounds amazing!


Also, I love the term:

"Full Self Driving (Supervised)"

which is like saying:

"I can throw a baseball 95 mph (really 50 mph)"

Have you driven with it lately?

[Anonymous]

P/E 250, suggesting long term revenue or profit will be at least double current level, -11% YoY revenue.

Make it make sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
^ Tesla self driving is now about to introduce version 14. Version 13 is pretty darn good so I imagine version 14 will be really good.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-opens-tesla-probe-after-more-crashes-involving-its-so-called-full-self-driving-technology

"dozens of incidents in which its vehicles ran red lights or drove on the wrong side of the road, sometimes crashing into other vehicles and injuring people."

Sounds amazing!

Not a fan of Tesla's junk cars, but how does Tesla crash rate compared to non AI cars?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
^ Tesla self driving is now about to introduce version 14. Version 13 is pretty darn good so I imagine version 14 will be really good.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-opens-tesla-probe-after-more-crashes-involving-its-so-called-full-self-driving-technology

"dozens of incidents in which its vehicles ran red lights or drove on the wrong side of the road, sometimes crashing into other vehicles and injuring people."

Sounds amazing!

Not a fan of Tesla's junk cars, but how does Tesla crash rate compared to non AI cars?

Do other cars drive themselves onto the wrong side of the road against the drivers wishes?

Tesla's self driving is known to be worse than others because it doesn't use lidar.

[Anonymous]

I am an casualty actuary. We are praying for self driving car to go mainstream sooner than later. When we look at data, the computer does a really good job.

Once self driving car goes mainstream, if you are human driver your auto insurance rate will be so high that you will have no choice but to give up your car.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I am an casualty actuary. We are praying for self driving car to go mainstream sooner than later. When we look at data, the computer does a really good job.

Once self driving car goes mainstream, if you are human driver your auto insurance rate will be so high that you will have no choice but to give up your car.

Agreed, an integrated system where every car is self driving would be much safer, overall. Not sure we will ever actually get there because of the coordination issues and security issues, along with the basic political hurdles. When we do, quite sure the systems will be much closer to Waymo's much more robust system than what Tesla uses.

[Anonymous]

I am an casualty actuary. We are praying for self driving car to go mainstream sooner than later. When we look at data, the computer does a really good job.

Once self driving car goes mainstream, if you are human driver your auto insurance rate will be so high that you will have no choice but to give up your car.

I totally believe this. The self driving does a much better job than I can do. I would not have said that a year ago, but now I am convinced. I had it before, but turned it off. Now I have tried it again and wow . . . big difference. I read that the overall incidence of accidents is about 6 times less than with a human driver (and that's right now).

[Anonymous]

P/E 250, suggesting long term revenue or profit will be at least double current level, -11% YoY revenue.

Make it make sense.

People have run the numbers. With FSD and robo taxis there will be many people who don't buy cars and who call up a robotaxi. Right now there are no earnings from this business, but you could reasonably expect a pretty good pile of earnings from this in maybe about 2 years. That could halve the P/E or even more. Plus lots of people view Tesla as a long term hold (10+ years).

You are placing bets about what is going to happen in the future. Who will be the competition? If you put $$ into Tesla in 2015, you have made about 20 times what you put in. People see this as a visionary company. People snickered in 2015 about Tesla and EVs (and now look at how the whole world is going to EVs). I would not bet against Tesla.