Best Post I’ve Seen in a Month on DL/Hybrid Choice

[Anonymous]

Schools will be closed a few weeks after they open. This is all so academic and I think deep down we all know it

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.

Exactly. When someone is THAT wrong in their analysis, I tune out the rest b/c their flawed logic shows me they are only trying to make a point that is dramatic, not factual.

I've seen this being pushed around on Facebook, and it saddens me that so many are falling for his drama. But, I think it's mainly people who want to shore up their decision to do DL. They have the right to choose that and I hope it works out. I don't appreciate the scare tactics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I had a meeting in a conference room yesterday. SMH. So tired of schools pretending they’re the only ones being called back.

I also take issue with this guy's analogy re: conference rooms. How many office conference rooms are the same size as a classroom? None. And how many people in conference rooms expect to be 6 ft away from someone else? And then how many expect everyone to wear a mask?

His analogies are painfully lazy and dishonest.

That just tells me he started with his conclusion and tried to work up material to support it. (i.e. he had an agenda from the start).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The math in this post alone invalidates it. We are not going to let every student and teacher get COVID, as is assumed here. That's complete nonsense and just made up to get an emotional eaction.

We should doing everything we can to keep infection rates low in the community (#schoolsbeforebars) and aggressively react to any outbreak. We should also take all proposed measure (masks/cohortings/distancing/handwashing/cleaning) to keep any infections as contained as possible.

Students who can effectively learn from home should strongly consider taking that option. For kids who can't, regardless of the reason, we should do all we can to make school as safe as we can.

If we have such power, why are we "letting" other people get it under conditions that aren't half as bad as what attending school will entail?

It's fair to assume that most, if not all, will get it.

So it's fair to assume that FCPS will ignore a rampant COVID outbreak in schools and stick with hybrid instead of switching hybrid kids to DL? Okay then.

Not PP, but maybe? The people choosing hybrid will put enormous pressure on the schools to stay open. Those families aren’t as risk averse to the virus as the people staying home. Ultimately the public health agencies will decide to close schools if it starts putting everyone else at increased risk. That’s the concern.

I don’t think this is at all a realistic scenario or valid concern. I don’t distrust the school system that much.

As an FCPS-o-phobe who is sending my kid: if we get wind of problems, we'll pull him and homeschool. In general, while the parents sending their kids in this area would be less risk-averse, I don't think they're that much less risk-averse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Schools will be closed a few weeks after they open. This is all so academic and I think deep down we all know it

👆👆👆👆👆👆👆👆👆👆

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.

Exactly. When someone is THAT wrong in their analysis, I tune out the rest b/c their flawed logic shows me they are only trying to make a point that is dramatic, not factual.

I've seen this being pushed around on Facebook, and it saddens me that so many are falling for his drama. But, I think it's mainly people who want to shore up their decision to do DL. They have the right to choose that and I hope it works out. I don't appreciate the scare tactics.

Agree. This is a Fundamental flaw in the argument. The risk does seem to be lower for young kids and that is based on the schools that have reopened in the rest of the world. I understand people have different risk appetites but that is why there is a choice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

If you’re in this camp, and I acknowledge that many, many people are, I’m asking you to consider that number from a slightly different angle.

FCPS has 189,000 children. .0016 of that is 302. 302 dead children are the Calvary Hill you’re erecting your argument on. So, let’s agree to do this: stop presenting this as a data point. If this is your argument, I challenge you to have courage equal to your conviction. Go ahead, plant a flag on the internet and say, “Only 302 children will die.” No one will. That’s the kind action on social media that gets you fired from your job. And I trust our social media enclave isn’t so careless and irresponsible with life that it would even, for even a millisecond, enter any of your minds to make such an argument.

Considered another way: You’re presented with a bag with 189,000 $1 bills. You’re told that in the bag are 302 random bills, they look and feel just like all the others, but each one of those bills will kill you. Do you take the money out of the bag?

This doesn’t make sense to me. The death rate of 0.0016 is for those children who contract the virus, not of the total population. The author is saying that if all 189K students in FCPS contract COVID, 302 of them will die.

That’s not going to happen.

There have been 1,237 cases of COVID in children ages 0-17 in Fairfax County in the last 4 months. Zero of them have died.

Okay, fine.

If 50% contract the virus, 151 will die.
If 25% contract the virus, 75 will die.
If 10% contract the virus, 30 will die.

Are those numbers okay? I hope not.

First of all, the mortality rate is 0.0016% - so the original numbers were off by a factor of 100 in the first place. So in his original argument, it would have been 3 kids, not 302. Add to that parents with kids with underlying conditions are likely to select DL and that at a high number only 25% would contract the virus in the worst case (it shouldn't get anywhere near that with the mitigations being put in place), the deaths of Fairfax county students are likely to be 0 from COVID. However, if we force kids to stay home and continue to isolate, I highly doubt the deaths from that scenario would be likely to be 0.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it’s clear that for some families full time DL isn’t going to work, can’t work, without significant sacrifice or resources. This post doesn’t seem like it’s written for them. There are a lot of people in my own circles for whom DL isn’t ideal, but could work out without anyone losing their job or sanity. I think this post is for them.

I agree. I think there are people who truly NEED hybrid learning. Those are special need kids, kids with abusive family, kids who need food, young kids whose parents are forced back to the workplace and have no alternative childcare options, kids who do not have the focus to take proper instructions in DL. For most other families, DL is a strain but it is not the end of the world. I think hybrid option parents are imagining something a lot rosier and a lot more organized, and I am not sure if it's possible. We are in a pandemic and everyone has to shoulder a load of this if we want to make it through. We really cannot compare ourselves and system with other countries, because we are very different in many ways (we can start a new post talking about this!).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Schools will be closed a few weeks after they open. This is all so academic and I think deep down we all know it

Honestly this was our assumption when selecting hybrid. It seemed like the best of both (bad) worlds, and we can accomodations DL if needed. But watching FCPS backpedal on safety issues (spacing, masks, etc) and watching the absolute fury on this board from people who want live school, I'm not so sure.

We have a summer nanny and her college is opening in August with a set close date in November. They will be online from November until May. I like that model more than wondering if/when we'll close.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hate this post. My child has fairly severe disabilities. I cannot educate him or meet his needs at home. I feel that posts like this pretend that he and my family do not exist.

With all due respect, if you aren’t the parent of a child like yours you just don’t know. I’m
Not sure why you are taking offense. Clearly this post isn’t meant for students like yours

I think if more families opt for DL, that will create more space for children like yours, PP. I think OP’s points will lead more families (of neurotypical children) to choose DL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ugh, this post is all over my FB feed. It’s not particularly well written or thought out and it’s so rambling. I don’t know who this guy is (he says he’s no expert) and I don’t particularly care what a non-expert stranger thinks.

Whoever the hell he is, he wrote it because he wanted to go viral, and he has gone viral - a friend of mine who lives in Arizona sent it to me this morning.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Schools will be closed a few weeks after they open. This is all so academic and I think deep down we all know it

👆👆👆👆👆👆👆👆👆👆

I agree. I’ve thought about taking hybrid (even though I want DL) so my kid doesn’t get one of the super old 4th grade teachers. Ageist I know but the teachers I prefer are not going to get initially selected to do DL.

[Anonymous]

My biggest concern is students not wearing masks or wearing it incorrectly. Teachers can ask 100 times but they can’t force it. How much time will be wasted reminding students to put on the mask. I imagine it’s going to be so chaotic. Kids are going to act crazy because they’ll only be in person 2 days/week. I foresee hybrid being the worst choice option.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ugh, this post is all over my FB feed. It’s not particularly well written or thought out and it’s so rambling. I don’t know who this guy is (he says he’s no expert) and I don’t particularly care what a non-expert stranger thinks.

Whoever the hell he is, he wrote it because he wanted to go viral, and he has gone viral - a friend of mine who lives in Arizona sent it to me this morning.

I suspect it was Kimberly Adams or someone in her orbit. Someone who WANTS or NEEDS more kids to choose DL so that s/he can teach from home.

I doubt that this person (Joe) is a real person.

[Anonymous]

This person had an agenda and then tried to find lazy-facts to support it. He (or SHE?) just tried to cover that up with "let me just say we were planning to go hybrid..." type of stuff.

Puhleez!

The "support" he/she uses are pathetic.

But, let's just say we correct his/her math and THREE people would be likely to die -- even that assumes that we all keep going to school while 25% are infected, and then 50% are infected, and then 75% are infected, and then the last teacher is teaching the very last kid before they both get infected to make it all the way to 100%.

Do you really think FCPS or any district would just keep plowing along with in person schooling if 50% are infected?

So, the logic fails again for this "Joe." (I mean "Jennifer" who just wants to work from home).