Arizona is a disaster

[Anonymous]

Yep. My parents are in Mesa (next door to Phoenix) and they say the same thing. None of their (over-65) neighbors have been distancing or wearing masks. The restaurants have been full.

My friend (45-50 yo) in Phoenix says the same thing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ Chances

Every post I've seen on this board about somewhere else being a "disaster" has been regarding a state that had a very low level of cases for the last three months, but which is now seeing a trend upward. Because they, unlike NY and other places in the NE, actually flattened the curve. Unless we all stay inside until a vaccine is available, the curve was going to start back up again when we stopped isolating. You folks are moving the goalposts.

No. Virginia was in the same basic condition as Arizona right after shelter in place but we slow-rolled and have a mask-indoors policy that most everyone is adhering to. Don’t see us having the explosion AZ is having, so no, it was NOT a guarantee to happen. The goalposts recommended by the epidemiologists have always been slow rollout and preventions. AZ is the one who shorted the goalpost.

Don't know what you mean by "same basic condition?" Virginia and AZ had about the same # of cases per capita back in early April, but then Virginia's curve was steeper than AZ's after that. VA's then flattened, and AZ's came up, but AZ still has fewer cases per capita total than VA (VA: 6430 per million; AZ 5061 per million). Interestingly, VA and AZ have about the same 7-day average for new hospitalizations per capita (@7 per million per day) right now, and VA has many more total hospitalized cases per capita (952/million vs. 515/million). If you look at the chart for total confirmed cases per capita for all states, you see that, no matter the shape of the curve, they are all converging in on one area of the chart. Which is exactly what "flattening the curve" was supposed to achieve.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

I think you need to say "reported cases." I think there is no way they had the same number of active cases. I've lived in Arizona a long time and have also lived in Northern Virginia. Arizona has relatively little travel to and from China, Italy or Spain. (Some travel to China from the universities.) Virginia has a lot of travel to those locations, comparatively speaking. I think it's basically undisputed that it was circulating in the DMV, including NoVa, In March and April, but the testing had not ramped up sufficiently to record the cases. As testing ramped up, Virginia saw a sharp incline in reported cases. Arizona just did not have community spread until recently. (They shut down schools relatively early -- before community spread started...but then reopened everything just as community spread was starting, so they didn't really time the wave well.) The goal of flattening the curve is to keep cases below the medical capacity. Arizona is at or exceeding the medical capacity so by definition has failed to sufficiently flatten the curve.

AZ mom here and ITA. There were extremely few cases when we shut down (and I think there TRULY were few- they weren’t missing a ton of hidden cases). Unfortunately we reopened right as community spread began...not good. Our peak was always predicted to be in June...maybe after SIP pushing things back it will now be July. Hard to say. Its almost as if we shut down too soon, honestly. The fact is, people will only tolerate SIP for a certain length of time (especially in AZ) and we wasted our two months of it sitting home when there were no cases. And now are reopen when cases are exploding. I understand the public health perspective (shut down early and stay shut down as long as it takes) but that isn’t realistic in the US (especially red states) as things stand right now. We wasted our “window” IMHO.

A big partnof it is also behavior upon repoening. Is everyone wearing a mask in public? Are people restricting their interactions to small groups that are outside? In VA, our numbers have continued to decrease and I attribute that to people continuing to social distance, even after "reopening." If AZ isn't social distancing, then you should expect cases to sky rocket just like they were elsewhere pre-shutdown. It's less about when AZ shutdown and more about current conduct to keep the R value low.

In VA, we had relatively few cases as well when we shut down, and have kept that number pretty low as we've opened up due to masks and social distancing. It's almost a model for how other states should be rolling out, at least for now.

I know many are clamoring for schools to open back up fully, and I'm betting it really would be possible for MS and HS if masks were enforced, where they're capable of keeping them on. But of course many of the same parents that are stomping about the schools not opening up fully are also the ones saying they won't force their kids to wear masks in school. Everything should go back to normal immediately and hope for the best...just like AZ...without mandatory preventions. "You can't tell ME what to do. I know best." What can FCPS do? It's our own damn fault as a community and it's baffling that people don't see they are the cause of their own distress.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would assume with everyone seeing these numbers people would change behavior? Masks should a national thing.

I was talking to a friend in Wisconsin today. She said basically everyone stopped wearing masks. She was astounded to hear it's mandatory in MD when going to a public place indoors. I was astounded it's not required there -- I assumed all states were doing this.

Are masks mandatory in all of Maryland? A friend just reported that she went to the boardwalk in OC and after five-minutes left and drove to Rehobath. She reported very few were wearing masks at OC, but everyone had one on in Rehobth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ Chances

Every post I've seen on this board about somewhere else being a "disaster" has been regarding a state that had a very low level of cases for the last three months, but which is now seeing a trend upward. Because they, unlike NY and other places in the NE, actually flattened the curve. Unless we all stay inside until a vaccine is available, the curve was going to start back up again when we stopped isolating. You folks are moving the goalposts.

No. Virginia was in the same basic condition as Arizona right after shelter in place but we slow-rolled and have a mask-indoors policy that most everyone is adhering to. Don’t see us having the explosion AZ is having, so no, it was NOT a guarantee to happen. The goalposts recommended by the epidemiologists have always been slow rollout and preventions. AZ is the one who shorted the goalpost.

Don't know what you mean by "same basic condition?" Virginia and AZ had about the same # of cases per capita back in early April, but then Virginia's curve was steeper than AZ's after that. VA's then flattened, and AZ's came up, but AZ still has fewer cases per capita total than VA (VA: 6430 per million; AZ 5061 per million). Interestingly, VA and AZ have about the same 7-day average for new hospitalizations per capita (@7 per million per day) right now, and VA has many more total hospitalized cases per capita (952/million vs. 515/million). If you look at the chart for total confirmed cases per capita for all states, you see that, no matter the shape of the curve, they are all converging in on one area of the chart. Which is exactly what "flattening the curve" was supposed to achieve.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg

I think you need to say "reported cases." I think there is no way they had the same number of active cases. I've lived in Arizona a long time and have also lived in Northern Virginia. Arizona has relatively little travel to and from China, Italy or Spain. (Some travel to China from the universities.) Virginia has a lot of travel to those locations, comparatively speaking. I think it's basically undisputed that it was circulating in the DMV, including NoVa, In March and April, but the testing had not ramped up sufficiently to record the cases. As testing ramped up, Virginia saw a sharp incline in reported cases. Arizona just did not have community spread until recently. (They shut down schools relatively early -- before community spread started...but then reopened everything just as community spread was starting, so they didn't really time the wave well.) The goal of flattening the curve is to keep cases below the medical capacity. Arizona is at or exceeding the medical capacity so by definition has failed to sufficiently flatten the curve.

AZ mom here and ITA. There were extremely few cases when we shut down (and I think there TRULY were few- they weren’t missing a ton of hidden cases). Unfortunately we reopened right as community spread began...not good. Our peak was always predicted to be in June...maybe after SIP pushing things back it will now be July. Hard to say. Its almost as if we shut down too soon, honestly. The fact is, people will only tolerate SIP for a certain length of time (especially in AZ) and we wasted our two months of it sitting home when there were no cases. And now are reopen when cases are exploding. I understand the public health perspective (shut down early and stay shut down as long as it takes) but that isn’t realistic in the US (especially red states) as things stand right now. We wasted our “window” IMHO.

A big partnof it is also behavior upon repoening. Is everyone wearing a mask in public? Are people restricting their interactions to small groups that are outside? In VA, our numbers have continued to decrease and I attribute that to people continuing to social distance, even after "reopening." If AZ isn't social distancing, then you should expect cases to sky rocket just like they were elsewhere pre-shutdown. It's less about when AZ shutdown and more about current conduct to keep the R value low.

In VA, we had relatively few cases as well when we shut down, and have kept that number pretty low as we've opened up due to masks and social distancing. It's almost a model for how other states should be rolling out, at least for now.

I know many are clamoring for schools to open back up fully, and I'm betting it really would be possible for MS and HS if masks were enforced, where they're capable of keeping them on. But of course many of the same parents that are stomping about the schools not opening up fully are also the ones saying they won't force their kids to wear masks in school. Everything should go back to normal immediately and hope for the best...just like AZ...without mandatory preventions. "You can't tell ME what to do. I know best." What can FCPS do? It's our own damn fault as a community and it's baffling that people don't see they are the cause of their own distress.

Yes...AZ mom again. I think there are people like that “you can’t tell me what to do, blah blah” in all 50 states, frankly. Some states have more than others. While AZ definitely has a lot more people like that than VA- no question there- I don’t think it is the worst of the worst, either. This state has become so purple (and will turn completely blue soon IMO)- not that politics is the only indicator but it is one. I hate seeing AZ getting such a bad rep over this- there are sooo many who are taking this very seriously. I don’t think we are the only state who is struggling with this (lack of compliance)- some states may luck out and be able to get away it but I think will most Red states will end up in the same boat as AZ if people do not wise up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would assume with everyone seeing these numbers people would change behavior? Masks should a national thing.

I was talking to a friend in Wisconsin today. She said basically everyone stopped wearing masks. She was astounded to hear it's mandatory in MD when going to a public place indoors. I was astounded it's not required there -- I assumed all states were doing this.

Are masks mandatory in all of Maryland? A friend just reported that she went to the boardwalk in OC and after five-minutes left and drove to Rehobath. She reported very few were wearing masks at OC, but everyone had one on in Rehobth.

I thought so, but in OC now and have had two store workers tell me to take off my mask indoors. That it is not required. Was very surprised.

[Anonymous]

There are always those idiots who refuse to evacuate before a hurricane. Those are the same dipshits who refuse to wear a mask or socially distance. But they expect others to risk their lives to rescue/save/care for them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:^ Chances

Every post I've seen on this board about somewhere else being a "disaster" has been regarding a state that had a very low level of cases for the last three months, but which is now seeing a trend upward. Because they, unlike NY and other places in the NE, actually flattened the curve. Unless we all stay inside until a vaccine is available, the curve was going to start back up again when we stopped isolating. You folks are moving the goalposts.

No. Virginia was in the same basic condition as Arizona right after shelter in place but we slow-rolled and have a mask-indoors policy that most everyone is adhering to. Don’t see us having the explosion AZ is having, so no, it was NOT a guarantee to happen. The goalposts recommended by the epidemiologists have always been slow rollout and preventions. AZ is the one who shorted the goalpost.

You must not get out of Northern Virginia. People in other parts of VA are NOT wearing masks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Clearly we have community spread here in AZ. What are the roots of it? From what I’ve seen:

1) the 20 something bar crowd...they do not care, and capacity restrictions are not being enforced AT ALL

2) the lower income Latino communities- larger families living in close quarters, most work in the service industry and bring it home, and more proximity to & reliance on extended family. These parents can’t work from home (and most worked straight through the shutdown as essential workers)- kids cared for by grandma or aunt etc. Also less healthy than the general population as a whole.


It is true people here are not good about wearing masks (varies by community) and that is exacerbating the problem - there should be a mandate. However all of the MW states are as bad or worse about masks and they aren’t seeing spread to this degree. I’ll be curious to see how things look in a month or so in those states, particularly the urban areas.

I live in NW Tucson and don't agree the root of the problem is with those 2 groups. From the beginning there were so many people not taking this seriously but had no choice other than to social distance or SIP since nothing was open. Those things that were open, though, were busy! Several of my neighbors have been throwing parties and socializing on the dl since this started and I live in a higher SES gated community where most of us are working from home. We go to a charter school and I'd estimate about 75% of our school friend families jumped immediately at day care, JCC/YMCA camps, swim team, etc. the second they opened up. Again, most were compliant up until that point because there was no other choice. Now, churches are open and from the videos I saw, no one is wearing masks and they eased up on the sd rules by the 2nd Sunday. Friends are posting pics of their outings to indoor play places and they're packed - and I see very few pics of masks. Just this weekend, youth sports started back up. Again, no masks. We finally went out to dinner at Noble Hops with our adult daughter last weekend and it was jam-packed with UMC people hugging on each other and their dogs - no masks anywhere (except the wait staff).

My family has been sheltering in place since spring break in mid-march and have been very diligent, but even my reason for being compliant wasn't totally for the good of the community, but rather I'm a homebody and feared getting sick. And now because I still don't want to get sick and it's so uncomfortable to wear masks in this heat, I'd still prefer to stay home. Someone else mentioned we wasted our window and I totally agree. Everyone has SIP fatigue and most of those that did take it seriously in the beginning aren't anymore. I was ready to ease up myself until I saw reports late last week and changed my mind.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Clearly we have community spread here in AZ. What are the roots of it? From what I’ve seen:

1) the 20 something bar crowd...they do not care, and capacity restrictions are not being enforced AT ALL

2) the lower income Latino communities- larger families living in close quarters, most work in the service industry and bring it home, and more proximity to & reliance on extended family. These parents can’t work from home (and most worked straight through the shutdown as essential workers)- kids cared for by grandma or aunt etc. Also less healthy than the general population as a whole.


It is true people here are not good about wearing masks (varies by community) and that is exacerbating the problem - there should be a mandate. However all of the MW states are as bad or worse about masks and they aren’t seeing spread to this degree. I’ll be curious to see how things look in a month or so in those states, particularly the urban areas.

I live in NW Tucson and don't agree the root of the problem is with those 2 groups. From the beginning there were so many people not taking this seriously but had no choice other than to social distance or SIP since nothing was open. Those things that were open, though, were busy! Several of my neighbors have been throwing parties and socializing on the dl since this started and I live in a higher SES gated community where most of us are working from home. We go to a charter school and I'd estimate about 75% of our school friend families jumped immediately at day care, JCC/YMCA camps, swim team, etc. the second they opened up. Again, most were compliant up until that point because there was no other choice. Now, churches are open and from the videos I saw, no one is wearing masks and they eased up on the sd rules by the 2nd Sunday. Friends are posting pics of their outings to indoor play places and they're packed - and I see very few pics of masks. Just this weekend, youth sports started back up. Again, no masks. We finally went out to dinner at Noble Hops with our adult daughter last weekend and it was jam-packed with UMC people hugging on each other and their dogs - no masks anywhere (except the wait staff).

My family has been sheltering in place since spring break in mid-march and have been very diligent, but even my reason for being compliant wasn't totally for the good of the community, but rather I'm a homebody and feared getting sick. And now because I still don't want to get sick and it's so uncomfortable to wear masks in this heat, I'd still prefer to stay home. Someone else mentioned we wasted our window and I totally agree. Everyone has SIP fatigue and most of those that did take it seriously in the beginning aren't anymore. I was ready to ease up myself until I saw reports late last week and changed my mind.

I’m also in Tucson (NE..near Sunrise/Swan) and I think it is very much neighborhood to neighborhood. Everyone I know is freaked out, and largely still social distancing and wearing masks. I don’t know anyone who was seeing friends during SIP. Since SIP, some are seeing a friend or toe (or hanging out with one other family etc) but no one is having parties! Masks are about 80-90% in local supermarkets. Far from perfect but most are being quite cautious. My kids go to public, and I do know of some kids who have resumed swim lessons, baseball practice etc. My kids play neither, but I consider those things lower risk as they are outdoors. My kids are doing golf/tennis lessons but again, I consider those lower risk IMO. I only know a few who are doing camps- there really aren’t many nearby. I know the local country club is doing a small camp (I think they have maybe 8 kids signed up) and our school district (CFSD) has a small summer program but again- not many enrolled. I don’t anyone crazy enough to go to an indoor play place right now- I can’t believe those are open! We ate dinner out on the patio at a local restaurant one night and it seemed reasonably safe to me. I have noticed packed restaurants around town, for sure.

I agree with whoever said AZ “missed its window”, for sure...and Ducey really needs to mandate masks and crack down on bars and restaurants not following the rules IMO. At minimum. I think there is zero chance he will order SIP again. It was our one shot IMO and we blew it.

We got an email from our district just today, stating that they plan to offer “school as normal, in person full time” (with online learning for those who would rather) and with the numbers as they are, I really cannot see that happening in early August.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are always those idiots who refuse to evacuate before a hurricane. Those are the same dipshits who refuse to wear a mask or socially distance. But they expect others to risk their lives to rescue/save/care for them.

+1 so selfish

[Anonymous]

Nobody thinking about all the old folks that live in AZ?

[Anonymous]

Over the weekend there was an article that mentioned many of the rising covid hospitalizations here in AZ were not because of covid, but rather the people happened to have covid. The people are asymptomatic, but testing positive when going in for the months long postponed non-emergency surgeries.

So yes, the person has a hospital bed. And yes, they have covid. But they're not in that bed because of covid. I reached out to a couple of nurse friends to get the scoop and they both said they're busy, because there is a nurse shortage here, but it's not covid keeping them busy - I think NW hospital only has 3 covid patients total.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Over the weekend there was an article that mentioned many of the rising covid hospitalizations here in AZ were not because of covid, but rather the people happened to have covid. The people are asymptomatic, but testing positive when going in for the months long postponed non-emergency surgeries.

So yes, the person has a hospital bed. And yes, they have covid. But they're not in that bed because of covid. I reached out to a couple of nurse friends to get the scoop and they both said they're busy, because there is a nurse shortage here, but it's not covid keeping them busy - I think NW hospital only has 3 covid patients total.

Here's that article: https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-new-panic-lie-increased-coronavirus-hospitalizations-cases-southwest/?fbclid=IwAR3DSCbs8i-_8J5eP9echfBEUdhGoxzCUHz8ZbtcZYdg8eHY6hu9S3yG9yA

Will someone smarter than me read this and see if it's valid or makes sense?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yep. My parents are in Mesa (next door to Phoenix) and they say the same thing. None of their (over-65) neighbors have been distancing or wearing masks. The restaurants have been full.

My friend (45-50 yo) in Phoenix says the same thing.

+1. NP. My cousins in Phoenix have said this, too. My elderly aunt and uncle live in Sun City and say no one is doing much social distancing or wearing masks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Over the weekend there was an article that mentioned many of the rising covid hospitalizations here in AZ were not because of covid, but rather the people happened to have covid. The people are asymptomatic, but testing positive when going in for the months long postponed non-emergency surgeries.

So yes, the person has a hospital bed. And yes, they have covid. But they're not in that bed because of covid. I reached out to a couple of nurse friends to get the scoop and they both said they're busy, because there is a nurse shortage here, but it's not covid keeping them busy - I think NW hospital only has 3 covid patients total.

Nurse at TMC last week said ER slammed with COvid patients.