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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]^ Chances  :lol: [/quote]

Every post I've seen on this board about somewhere else being a "disaster" has been regarding a state that had a very low level of cases for the last three months, but which is now seeing a trend upward.  Because they, unlike NY and other places in the NE, actually flattened the curve.  Unless we all stay inside until a vaccine is available, the curve was going to start back up again when we stopped isolating.  You folks are moving the goalposts. [/quote]

No.  Virginia was in the same basic condition as Arizona right after shelter in place but we slow-rolled and have a mask-indoors policy that most everyone is adhering to.  Don’t see us having the explosion AZ is having, so no, it was NOT a guarantee to happen.  The goalposts recommended by the epidemiologists have always been slow rollout and preventions.  AZ is the one who shorted the goalpost.[/quote]

Don't know what you mean by "same basic condition?"  [b]Virginia and AZ had about the same # of cases per capita back in early April,[/b] but then Virginia's curve was steeper than AZ's after that.  VA's then flattened, and AZ's came up, but AZ still has fewer cases per capita total than VA (VA: 6430 per million; AZ 5061 per million).  Interestingly, VA and AZ have about the same 7-day average for new hospitalizations per capita (@7 per million per day) right now, and VA has many more total hospitalized cases per capita (952/million vs. 515/million).  If you look at the chart for total confirmed cases per capita for all states, you see that, no matter the shape of the curve, they are all converging in on one area of the chart.  Which is exactly what "flattening the curve" was supposed to achieve.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg[/quote]

I think you need to say "reported cases."  I think there is no way they had the same number of active cases.  I've lived in Arizona a long time and have also lived in Northern Virginia.  Arizona has relatively little travel to and from China, Italy or Spain.  (Some travel to China from the universities.)  Virginia has a lot of travel to those locations, comparatively speaking.  I think it's basically undisputed that it was circulating in the DMV, including NoVa, In March and April, but the testing had not ramped up sufficiently to record the cases.  As testing ramped up, Virginia saw a sharp incline in reported cases.  Arizona just did not have community spread until recently.  (They shut down schools relatively early -- before community spread started...but then reopened everything just as community spread was starting, so they didn't really time the wave well.)  The goal of flattening the curve is to keep cases below the medical capacity.  Arizona is at or exceeding the medical capacity so by definition has failed to sufficiently flatten the curve.[/quote]

AZ mom here and ITA. There were extremely few cases when we shut down (and I think there TRULY were few- they weren’t missing a ton of hidden cases). Unfortunately we reopened right as community spread began...not good. Our peak was always predicted to be in June...maybe after SIP pushing things back it will now be July. Hard to say. Its almost as if we shut down too soon, honestly. The fact is, people will only tolerate SIP for a certain length of time (especially in AZ) and we wasted our two months of it sitting home when there were no cases. And now are reopen when cases are exploding. I understand the public health perspective (shut down early and stay shut down as long as it takes) but that isn’t realistic in the US (especially red states) as things stand right now. We wasted our “window” IMHO. [/quote]A big partnof it is also behavior upon repoening.  Is everyone wearing a mask in public?  Are people restricting their interactions to small groups that are outside?  In VA, our numbers have continued to decrease and I attribute that to people continuing to social distance, even after "reopening."  If AZ isn't social distancing, then you should expect cases to sky rocket just like they were elsewhere pre-shutdown.  It's less about when AZ shutdown and more about current conduct to keep the R value low.[/quote]

In VA, we had relatively few cases as well when we shut down, and have kept that number pretty low as we've opened up due to masks and social distancing.  It's almost a model for how other states should be rolling out, at least for now.

I know many are clamoring for schools to open back up fully, and I'm betting it really would be possible for MS and HS if masks were enforced, where they're capable of keeping them on.  But of course many of the same parents that are stomping about the schools not opening up fully are also the ones saying they won't force their kids to wear masks in school.  Everything should go back to normal immediately and hope for the best...just like AZ...without mandatory preventions.  "You can't tell ME what to do.  I know best."  What can FCPS do?  It's our own damn fault as a community and it's baffling that people don't see they are the cause of their own distress.[/quote]

Yes...AZ mom again. I think there are people like that “you can’t tell me what to do, blah blah” in all 50 states, frankly. Some states have more than others. While AZ definitely has a lot more people like that than VA- no question there- I don’t think it is the worst of the worst, either.  This state has become so purple (and will turn completely blue soon IMO)- not that politics is the only indicator but it is one. I hate seeing AZ getting such a bad rep over this- there are sooo many who are taking this very seriously. I don’t think we are the only state who is struggling with this (lack of compliance)- some states may luck out and be able to get away it but I think will most Red states will end up in the same boat as AZ if people do not wise up. [/quote]

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