Nate Silver has a new prediction

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, I come from Europe, and I can tell you that even between Hitler and Mussolini there was a difference. Hitler was worse. If that was my choice, I would vote Mussolini if only to keep Hitler away from power. Trump and Hillary might both be bad, but one is worse. Voting third party is hiding head in the sand at a very critical time.

Every fricking election we hear that it is a critical time! Heard it in 2000, 04. 08, 12 and now this go around.

There is nothing that critical this go around. We have a choice between two lousy candidates who have serious flaws. No matter who is elected the country will do fine and come 2020 we will again hear that it is a critical time!

Wow. For someone who was adult enough to remember hearing that as far back as 2000, I'm shocked at your poor memory and perspective. Remember in 2000 when people thought Bush wouldn't be that bad because there really weren't any terrible issues for him to handle? We were at peace, the economy was good, etc so a lot of people who just didn't like Al Gore thought that Bush would be fine and a nice change. Then 9/11 happened. Bush let us into a war that left thousands of citizens dead or grieving, gave rise to what became ISIS, and gave us Alito on the Supreme Court. The reason you keep hearing that every election is critical is because they all are. We never know what the future will hold and you need someone you trust at the helm, not someone you think probably couldn't do that much harm.

I'm not happy about either candidate, but I sure as hell know that this election IS critical and that Trump is unfit for office.

Amen, my friend.

[Anonymous]

Latest Forcast from Nowcast 64% for Clinton 36% for Trump : http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Polls only: 53% Clinton, 46% Trump
Polls-Plus: 62% Clinton, 38% Trump

[Anonymous]

Instead of cherry-picking the poll you like best, why don't you at least cite RealClearPolitics, which tracks most of the major, established, respected polls?

The gist of the data at RCP is that the race is closer than you you have attempted to claim.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Instead of cherry-picking the poll you like best, why don't you at least cite RealClearPolitics, which tracks most of the major, established, respected polls?

The gist of the data at RCP is that the race is closer than you you have attempted to claim.

Nate Silver aggregates many polls just like RCP, but runs it through a model to predict the outcome. The prediction is not about what the final vote percentages will be, but the probability that Clinton or Trump will win. This is not cherry picking. Silver's model picked the winner of 99 out of 100 state contests in the last 2 elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Instead of cherry-picking the poll you like best, why don't you at least cite RealClearPolitics, which tracks most of the major, established, respected polls?

The gist of the data at RCP is that the race is closer than you you have attempted to claim.

NP. The problem with RCP is that it just lists a bunch of recent poll results, so it's hard to distill it down to one clear answer. It gets even more complex when you realize the national polling data is kind of imprecise, since it doesn't measure what's happening in the swing states. It would be like asking someone whether the Nationals will win the pennant, and just getting back lots of data about the current win-loss record of each team without any assessment of trends or remaining opponents. With all that noisy data, people naturally cherry-pick what they like to see.

That's why sites like 538 or 270towin or the NYT's Upshot are useful, because they crunch all the numbers into one aggregate result.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
http://www.270towin.com/polling-maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
https://electionbettingodds.com/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now


The tide is turning...

The DNC convention is a mess.

I am starting to feel bad for Hillary.

Why did she even run? She could be retried and enjoying her grandchildren. She doesn't need this job. It is too much work; too much travel; a big headache actually.

My how the tide turns .... 10 day later, the "NowCast" OP was crowing about shows Clinton with a 91% chance of winning. Take it with a grain of salt, because it's just a snapshot in time, but the trend is certainly bad for Crazy Don and his minions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now


The tide is turning...

The DNC convention is a mess.

I am starting to feel bad for Hillary.

Why did she even run? She could be retried and enjoying her grandchildren. She doesn't need this job. It is too much work; too much travel; a big headache actually.

My how the tide turns .... 10 day later, the "NowCast" OP was crowing about shows Clinton with a 91% chance of winning. Take it with a grain of salt, because it's just a snapshot in time, but the trend is certainly bad for Crazy Don and his minions.

The OP always seemed a few sandwiches short of a picnic. The bolded applies equally to Trump.

[Anonymous]

Nate! that chart is all over the place. Do I have to keep hitting refresh frantically until November?

Sigh.

[Anonymous]

It's over 90% Hillary as of this moment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's over 90% Hillary as of this moment.

yes, but all Trump has to do is to make the election a referendum on Hillary, which he has plenty of time to do until the 1st debate. he's merely treading water right now because he doesn't want to peak too soon. it's a contest of two unlikables but Hilary is more vulnerable so he's saving his trump card till the last.

[Anonymous]

I am about to fall out of my chair laughing - you're going with trump "treading water", after this past week? Really?

It's so cute that you think there is some rational thought/strategy behind that shitshow

[Anonymous]

Wait you think Truml has some kind of secret "trump card" against Hillary that he is going to pull out at the last minute to turn the tide? LOL

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's over 90% Hillary as of this moment.

yes, but all Trump has to do is to make the election a referendum on Hillary, which he has plenty of time to do until the 1st debate. he's merely treading water right now because he doesn't want to peak too soon. it's a contest of two unlikables but Hilary is more vulnerable so he's saving his trump card till the last.

Haha - that's hilarious! Sure, you keep thinking that he's holding off right now because he doesn't want to peak to soon. That's obviously easier for you to believe than the real truth which is that he is obsessed with petty squabbles with other Republicans and proving that the Kahns were very, very mean to him. The man can't lead effectively because he is obsessed with hitting back at people who don't roll over and play dead for him - even when it is in his best interest to let it go and move on.

Yeah, right, that's the guy I want leading us in difficult times. Sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's over 90% Hillary as of this moment.

yes, but all Trump has to do is to make the election a referendum on Hillary, which he has plenty of time to do until the 1st debate. he's merely treading water right now because he doesn't want to peak too soon. it's a contest of two unlikables but Hilary is more vulnerable so he's saving his trump card till the last.

Yep that's all he has to do. Meanwhile, all the D's have to do is find easy ways to needle him into a temper tantrum that he prolongs for days and watch his numbers go down down down.

[Anonymous]

It's very satisfying to look at the OP and then at 538 today for some reason