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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Instead of cherry-picking the poll you like best, why don't you at least cite RealClearPolitics, which tracks most of the major, established, respected polls?

The gist of the data at RCP is that the race is closer than you you have attempted to claim.[/quote]

NP.  The problem with RCP is that it just lists a bunch of recent poll results, so it's hard to distill it down to one clear answer.  It gets even more complex when you realize the national polling data is kind of imprecise, since it doesn't measure what's happening in the swing states.  It would be like asking someone whether the Nationals will win the pennant, and just getting back lots of data about the current win-loss record of each team without any assessment of trends or remaining opponents.  With all that noisy data, people naturally cherry-pick what they like to see.

That's why sites like 538 or 270towin or the NYT's Upshot are useful, because they crunch all the numbers into one aggregate result.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
http://www.270towin.com/polling-maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
https://electionbettingodds.com/
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