Nate Silver has a new prediction

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm assuming not everyone knows this...Nate Silver has been 99% accurate. Out of 100 states in the past 2 elections, he predicted 99 states correctly so when he says Trump is ahead, you better believe it's likely true.

Nate's model actually underestimates Trump's support (or it could be the polls are under polling Trump voters). If Nate says Trump is ahead, he really is way ahead.

[Anonymous]

Now Cast: Clinton 46% Trump 54%

Polls only: Clinton 53% Trump 47%

Polls Plus: Clinton 59% Trump 41%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Now Cast: Clinton 46% Trump 54%

Polls only: Clinton 53% Trump 47%

Polls Plus: Clinton 59% Trump 41%

The problem with Clinton is she has never increased her polling numbers. They have always gone down. It will be interesting to see what the convention does for her. She needs this convention to show she is trustworthy. If this convention just focuses on Trump, it will not help her. That said, no one pays attention to these things, making it harder for Clinton. The conventions are general boring infomercials. Maybe she should take a page out of Trumps play book and create some drama. I don't know...it's hard to establish trust once it's been broken.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Now Cast: Clinton 46% Trump 54%

Polls only: Clinton 53% Trump 47%

Polls Plus: Clinton 59% Trump 41%

The problem with Clinton is she has never increased her polling numbers. They have always gone down. It will be interesting to see what the convention does for her. She needs this convention to show she is trustworthy. If this convention just focuses on Trump, it will not help her. That said, no one pays attention to these things, making it harder for Clinton. The conventions are general boring infomercials. Maybe she should take a page out of Trumps play book and create some drama. I don't know...it's hard to establish trust once it's been broken.

So it's all about the convention, but no one watches them and she should care some drama except she shouldn't. Trenchant commentary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Now Cast: Clinton 46% Trump 54%

Polls only: Clinton 53% Trump 47%

Polls Plus: Clinton 59% Trump 41%

At this point polls are mostly anecdotal. If you MUST look at these, I'd suggest paying closer attention to the polls plus. Nevertheless, better off simply enjoying the ride for now and checking back in a couple weeks once the conventions are over and things have settled.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Now Cast: Clinton 46% Trump 54%

Polls only: Clinton 53% Trump 47%

Polls Plus: Clinton 59% Trump 41%

The problem with Clinton is she has never increased her polling numbers. They have always gone down. It will be interesting to see what the convention does for her. She needs this convention to show she is trustworthy. If this convention just focuses on Trump, it will not help her. That said, no one pays attention to these things, making it harder for Clinton. The conventions are general boring infomercials. Maybe she should take a page out of Trumps play book and create some drama. I don't know...it's hard to establish trust once it's been broken.

Based on statistical analysis of statements (read fact) she is several multiples more trustworthy than Don the Con.

[Anonymous]

Not sure that everyone understands that Silver's work isn't just polling - it is probability of winning.

So, for instance if the election were held 100 times, Trump would win 46 and HRC would win 54. It's different than saying Trump gets 46% of the vote.

One of the best interactive graphics I have seen so far, let's you tinker with turnout and voter choice. Waaaay better than 270 to win


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now


The tide is turning...

The DNC convention is a mess.

I am starting to feel bad for Hillary.

Why did she even run? She could be retried and enjoying her grandchildren. She doesn't need this job. It is too much work; too much travel; a big headache actually.

Because it's "her turn" and she believes she's entitled.

[Anonymous]

The betting markets still have Clinton at 66% chance of winning. I trust people betting money more than people just gabbing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The betting markets still have Clinton at 66% chance of winning. I trust people betting money more than people just gabbing.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

[Anonymous]

Thank you! I hate all of the sexist stuff about Hillary and "the grandkids".


quote=Anonymous]Trump could be retired on a beach somewhere, too. Enjoying his grandchildren and his families.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now


The tide is turning...

The DNC convention is a mess.

I am starting to feel bad for Hillary.

Why did she even run? She could be retried and enjoying her grandchildren. She doesn't need this job. It is too much work; too much travel; a big headache actually.

Because it's "her turn" and she believes she's entitled.

Every politician thinks it's "their turn." There were 17 Republicans who thought it was "their turn" too.

[Anonymous]

Look, I come from Europe, and I can tell you that even between Hitler and Mussolini there was a difference. Hitler was worse. If that was my choice, I would vote Mussolini if only to keep Hitler away from power. Trump and Hillary might both be bad, but one is worse. Voting third party is hiding head in the sand at a very critical time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look, I come from Europe, and I can tell you that even between Hitler and Mussolini there was a difference. Hitler was worse. If that was my choice, I would vote Mussolini if only to keep Hitler away from power. Trump and Hillary might both be bad, but one is worse. Voting third party is hiding head in the sand at a very critical time.

Every fricking election we hear that it is a critical time! Heard it in 2000, 04. 08, 12 and now this go around.

There is nothing that critical this go around. We have a choice between two lousy candidates who have serious flaws. No matter who is elected the country will do fine and come 2020 we will again hear that it is a critical time!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, I come from Europe, and I can tell you that even between Hitler and Mussolini there was a difference. Hitler was worse. If that was my choice, I would vote Mussolini if only to keep Hitler away from power. Trump and Hillary might both be bad, but one is worse. Voting third party is hiding head in the sand at a very critical time.

Every fricking election we hear that it is a critical time! Heard it in 2000, 04. 08, 12 and now this go around.

There is nothing that critical this go around. We have a choice between two lousy candidates who have serious flaws. No matter who is elected the country will do fine and come 2020 we will again hear that it is a critical time!

As the country has become more polarized, these elections have in fact become more critical every time. There is struggle about which direction the country should go, and until one side or the other wins the struggle decisively, we will face these critical elections.