Nate Silver has a new prediction

[Anonymous]

Has polling officially jumped the shark?

'Hillary leads Trump in Georgia'

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-georgia-226711

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Has polling officially jumped the shark?

'Hillary leads Trump in Georgia'

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-georgia-226711

I think it's cute that you blame the polling and not the disastrous candidate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
well ok, i'll give you that, as he hasn't shown he's capable of not taking the bait. but he also knows what needs to be done to close a (business) deal when it counts. remember, Hilary MUST win all three (or however many) debates, but Trump doesn't, he could lose the debates but still become the more likable one. we'll see.

I think it's safe to say that voters have begun to notice that he can sometimes close deals, but can't keep a business profitable. Or ethical.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's over 90% Hillary as of this moment.

yes, but all Trump has to do is to make the election a referendum on Hillary, which he has plenty of time to do until the 1st debate. he's merely treading water right now because he doesn't want to peak too soon. it's a contest of two unlikables but Hilary is more vulnerable so he's saving his trump card till the last.

Yep that's all he has to do. Meanwhile, all the D's have to do is find easy ways to needle him into a temper tantrum that he prolongs for days and watch his numbers go down down down.

what's the point of him winning the polls right now? no, seriously, what's there to gain for him to win the polls right now or next week? all he needs to do is turn on the attacks at Hilary one day before the 1st debate, and then reminds viewers all the unlikable traits of Hilary during the debate, to seal the deal. He may lose the debates, even strategically, but wins the election by demonstrating she's insufferable.

that's why he wants a new date to draw as big an audience as possible for the 1st debate - not to win, but to show who's more unlikable.

It's so funny that you think Clinton is the one easily goaded into looking bad. Meanwhile Trump can't even be nice to a baby.

OMG. Dying of laughter. Dying.

luckily he's not running against the crying baby.

Correct. It's Hillary who's running against a crying baby.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:what's the point of him winning the polls right now? no, seriously, what's there to gain for him to win the polls right now or next week? all he needs to do is turn on the attacks at Hilary one day before the 1st debate, and then reminds viewers all the unlikable traits of Hilary during the debate, to seal the deal. He may lose the debates, even strategically, but wins the election by demonstrating she's insufferable.

that's why he wants a new date to draw as big an audience as possible for the 1st debate - not to win, but to show who's more unlikable.

Polls show momentum or lack thereof. Without momentum, contributors are less likely to pony up cash. Maybe Trump doesn't need cash, but the RNC sure would like some. Moreover, campaigns should be trying to identify their voters now in order to be prepared for future GOTV efforts. If a lack of momentum is causing fewer voters to announce their support for Trump, there will be fewer voters to get out to vote.

Finally, I think it is hilarious that you think Trump beating up on Hillary is going to remind people that she is unlikeable. Getting rudely beat up by Trump in a debate would be Hillary's dream come true.

1) Trump doesn't care what RNC needs
2) Too early to worry about GOTV
3) I didn't say he's going to beat up Hilary, I said "reminds viewers all the unlikable traits of Hilary."

my point is, it's too early to worry about (winning) the polls.

Hillary was worried about GOTV a year ago. That's how you win elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's over 90% Hillary as of this moment.

yes, but all Trump has to do is to make the election a referendum on Hillary, which he has plenty of time to do until the 1st debate. he's merely treading water right now because he doesn't want to peak too soon. it's a contest of two unlikables but Hilary is more vulnerable so he's saving his trump card till the last.

Yep that's all he has to do. Meanwhile, all the D's have to do is find easy ways to needle him into a temper tantrum that he prolongs for days and watch his numbers go down down down.

what's the point of him winning the polls right now? no, seriously, what's there to gain for him to win the polls right now or next week? all he needs to do is turn on the attacks at Hilary one day before the 1st debate, and then reminds viewers all the unlikable traits of Hilary during the debate, to seal the deal. He may lose the debates, even strategically, but wins the election by demonstrating she's insufferable.

that's why he wants a new date to draw as big an audience as possible for the 1st debate - not to win, but to show who's more unlikable.

Haha - that all might have a slim hope of making sense if Donald Trump had exhibited the necessary discipline to follow a specific strategy. But he's like a dog who sees a squirrel. Whatever he means to do, he loses it as soon as there seems to be a threat to his ego. The man can't stop hitting back against the highly sympathetic parents of a deceased war hero even though his reaction was stupid, piled on stupid, piled on stupid! You think he's going to learn discipline now and stop rising to the bait? Don't hold your breath.

well ok, i'll give you that, as he hasn't shown he's capable of not taking the bait. but he also knows what needs to be done to close a (business) deal when it counts. remember, Hilary MUST win all three (or however many) debates, but Trump doesn't, he could lose the debates but still become the more likable one. we'll see.

Trump is losing now and will lose the debates BECAUSE he is unlikable, so there is no way he can lose the debates and win the election.

[Anonymous]

Chris Cilliza of the WaPo thinks that Trump will do only the first debate and then weasel out of the rest.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Chris Cilliza of the WaPo thinks that Trump will do only the first debate and then weasel out of the rest.

I think just the opposite. Given current polls, debates are Trump's only chance.

He's got only upside, she's got only downside.

Debates--particularly the first--are very dangerous territory for Clinton. She needs to do well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chris Cilliza of the WaPo thinks that Trump will do only the first debate and then weasel out of the rest.

I think just the opposite. Given current polls, debates are Trump's only chance.

He's got only upside, she's got only downside.

Debates--particularly the first--are very dangerous territory for Clinton. She needs to do well.

Are you on drugs?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chris Cilliza of the WaPo thinks that Trump will do only the first debate and then weasel out of the rest.

I think just the opposite. Given current polls, debates are Trump's only chance.

He's got only upside, she's got only downside.

Debates--particularly the first--are very dangerous territory for Clinton. She needs to do well.

Are you on drugs?

More likely off their drugs

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now


The tide is turning...

The DNC convention is a mess.

I am starting to feel bad for Hillary.

Why did she even run? She could be retried and enjoying her grandchildren. She doesn't need this job. It is too much work; too much travel; a big headache actually.

Well OP, how did that prediction turn out for you?