CNN’s inaugural Road to 270 shows Trump in a position to win the White House

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The issue is if the Republicans also control Congress. Then we're F'd. If Democrats can get Congress a Trump presidency won't do much of anything but churn up some ridiculous sound bites and get the World laughing at us yet again.

This is not actually true. Take it from someone working in an agency very much impacted by Trump's last presidency, they can do a lot of damage to government itself

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Unlikely to be close from an electoral college standpoint. CNN will need to spend a great deal of time on election night explaining the difference between a constitutional republic and a democracy as the person with fewer overall votes is declared the victor.

Why would they need to explain what most of us learned in elementary school?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: >

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/05/politics/road-to-270-electoral-votes-2024/index.html

CNN
—
CNN’s inaugural “Road to 270” electoral map shows President Joe Biden struggling to recreate his Electoral College majority from his successful 2020 run and former President Donald Trump with enough states solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction to put him in a position to win the presidency again.

This first look at a potential Biden vs. Trump rematch – and the electoral math each would need to capture 270 electoral votes – captures the dynamics at play 10 months from Election Day. Biden is an incumbent president with stubbornly low approval ratings, persistent questions and concerns about his ability to serve another term, and diminished support from some key components of his winning coalition from 2020.

Biden has made a mistake. He said when he ran in 2020 he would only serve one term, then bow out. He is putting our democracy at risk. Rest in power Justice Ginsberg, but she did us a disservice by not stepping down and it seems Biden will follow her lead. I know it’s early. I know polls are notoriously unreliable. Still, this is troubling.
>

Replace Biden with any normal Dem candidate and the normal candidate destroys Trump in an electoral and popular vote landslide victory. What are you thinking Joe?

Are you sure about that? I always assumed Biden was running because the opposite was true - that internal polling showed Biden was in the best position to win. In addition, Biden running prevents a bunch of Dem hopefuls from attacking each other for several months, which puts more focus on Trump. We saw that in 2016 and 2020.

Unlike most posters I don’t think Biden wanted to run again. I think he knows that internally polling gave him the best shot versus other potential Dem candidates (versus the generic Dem candidate).

Biden was nominated in 2020 because he was considered most likely to beat Trump. Now, at 81 years old and with sub 40% approval rating, he is the candidate most likely to lose to Trump. This is frustrating knowing how easily beatable Trump would be if we were able to nominate a normal candidate. Is what it is I guess. America will be stuck with an unfit president until January of 2029 and apparently nothing can be done about that in a world ruled by the RNC and DNC.

You don’t think Dems did polling for every possible scenario? They did; that’s why the DNC exists.

Your dislike of Biden is blinding you to the fact that the DNC spends a great deal of time and money trying to run down different scenarios. They cannot ultimately control what happens, but they have a lot of sway and power to change to direction of support within a party.

You think a swing voter in Michigan or Pennsylvania would be more inclined to vote for Biden in the general election (for whom they probably already don't like considering his abysmal approval rating) than they would for Whitmer? You think a normal, rational person in any state would compare Biden to someone like Whitmer and think, yea, Biden clearly makes more sense as president. Ha ha... you are as dim witted as the MAGA crowd if you truly believe this. Say it with me.... "Joe is 81 years old and less than 40% of Americans approve of him". Not a winning combination. If you want another 4 years of Trump in office, you should be satisfied with Biden as the 2024 nominee. If you want a guarantee of Trump losing, you are hoping and praying that somehow Biden doesn't become the nominee. I wish none of this were true but it clearly is. Ignoring the truth will put Trump back in office. Think with your brain and not your heart.

What about Kamala Harris? She’s been a loyal Vice-President.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Unlikely to be close from an electoral college standpoint. CNN will need to spend a great deal of time on election night explaining the difference between a constitutional republic and a democracy as the person with fewer overall votes is declared the victor.

Why would they need to explain what most of us learned in elementary school?

Because the IQ of the average American voter has declined sharply in recent decades. This is how a pathetic Trump vs Biden rematch in 2024 becomes possible.

[Anonymous]

I think CNN has a motivation to ensure Democrats are not complacent going into this election and expect (and frankly hope) for them to have very little encouraging things to say. We need turnout, no one should think Trump CAN'T win. But I do think that the polls are not telling the abortion tale. I know a woman who lives in Idaho where it has gotten REALLY real REALLY quickly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: >

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/05/politics/road-to-270-electoral-votes-2024/index.html

CNN
—
CNN’s inaugural “Road to 270” electoral map shows President Joe Biden struggling to recreate his Electoral College majority from his successful 2020 run and former President Donald Trump with enough states solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction to put him in a position to win the presidency again.

This first look at a potential Biden vs. Trump rematch – and the electoral math each would need to capture 270 electoral votes – captures the dynamics at play 10 months from Election Day. Biden is an incumbent president with stubbornly low approval ratings, persistent questions and concerns about his ability to serve another term, and diminished support from some key components of his winning coalition from 2020.

Biden has made a mistake. He said when he ran in 2020 he would only serve one term, then bow out. He is putting our democracy at risk. Rest in power Justice Ginsberg, but she did us a disservice by not stepping down and it seems Biden will follow her lead. I know it’s early. I know polls are notoriously unreliable. Still, this is troubling.
>

Replace Biden with any normal Dem candidate and the normal candidate destroys Trump in an electoral and popular vote landslide victory. What are you thinking Joe?

Are you sure about that? I always assumed Biden was running because the opposite was true - that internal polling showed Biden was in the best position to win. In addition, Biden running prevents a bunch of Dem hopefuls from attacking each other for several months, which puts more focus on Trump. We saw that in 2016 and 2020.

Unlike most posters I don’t think Biden wanted to run again. I think he knows that internally polling gave him the best shot versus other potential Dem candidates (versus the generic Dem candidate).

Biden was nominated in 2020 because he was considered most likely to beat Trump. Now, at 81 years old and with sub 40% approval rating, he is the candidate most likely to lose to Trump. This is frustrating knowing how easily beatable Trump would be if we were able to nominate a normal candidate. Is what it is I guess. America will be stuck with an unfit president until January of 2029 and apparently nothing can be done about that in a world ruled by the RNC and DNC.

You don’t think Dems did polling for every possible scenario? They did; that’s why the DNC exists.

Your dislike of Biden is blinding you to the fact that the DNC spends a great deal of time and money trying to run down different scenarios. They cannot ultimately control what happens, but they have a lot of sway and power to change to direction of support within a party.

You think a swing voter in Michigan or Pennsylvania would be more inclined to vote for Biden in the general election (for whom they probably already don't like considering his abysmal approval rating) than they would for Whitmer? You think a normal, rational person in any state would compare Biden to someone like Whitmer and think, yea, Biden clearly makes more sense as president. Ha ha... you are as dim witted as the MAGA crowd if you truly believe this. Say it with me.... "Joe is 81 years old and less than 40% of Americans approve of him". Not a winning combination. If you want another 4 years of Trump in office, you should be satisfied with Biden as the 2024 nominee. If you want a guarantee of Trump losing, you are hoping and praying that somehow Biden doesn't become the nominee. I wish none of this were true but it clearly is. Ignoring the truth will put Trump back in office. Think with your brain and not your heart.

What about Kamala Harris? She’s been a loyal Vice-President.

Because the swing voters in the mid-western states we need for a guaranteed victory are much more likely to vote for a two term mid-western governor than they are a Californian vice-president serving under a historically unpopular president.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think CNN has a motivation to ensure Democrats are not complacent going into this election and expect (and frankly hope) for them to have very little encouraging things to say. We need turnout, no one should think Trump CAN'T win. But I do think that the polls are not telling the abortion tale. I know a woman who lives in Idaho where it has gotten REALLY real REALLY quickly.

+1

The people who duck pollsters would crawl through broken glass to cast a ballot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think CNN has a motivation to ensure Democrats are not complacent going into this election and expect (and frankly hope) for them to have very little encouraging things to say. We need turnout, no one should think Trump CAN'T win. But I do think that the polls are not telling the abortion tale. I know a woman who lives in Idaho where it has gotten REALLY real REALLY quickly.

+1

The people who duck pollsters would crawl through broken glass to cast a ballot.

All we know for sure is that Trump over performed on election day in both 2016 and 2020 relative to pre-election polling data. This wouldn't scare me if our nominee wasn't an 81 year old unpopular incumbent that is more likely to fall more out of favor with swing voters than he is to gain appeal between now and November. As it is, I'm deeply concerned and hoping Joe finds away to turn down the 2024 nomination in time to be replaced by someone much more likely to beat Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think CNN has a motivation to ensure Democrats are not complacent going into this election and expect (and frankly hope) for them to have very little encouraging things to say. We need turnout, no one should think Trump CAN'T win. But I do think that the polls are not telling the abortion tale. I know a woman who lives in Idaho where it has gotten REALLY real REALLY quickly.

That pulls like these do the exact opposite. Too many people think what’s the point of even voting if Trump has it in the bag or oh I guess Biden is not a liked president so I won’t vote. It’s incredibly damaging what they are doing with these polls. They don’t tell the full story. There’s been cases where news outlets are reporting one thing, but when you dig into the date, the exact opposite comes out.

I’m the poster who keeps talking about real data like voter registration, small donor fundraising candidates, running for office Democrats performance in special elections and the midterms. That’s what we should be looking at. Not stupid polls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think CNN has a motivation to ensure Democrats are not complacent going into this election and expect (and frankly hope) for them to have very little encouraging things to say. We need turnout, no one should think Trump CAN'T win. But I do think that the polls are not telling the abortion tale. I know a woman who lives in Idaho where it has gotten REALLY real REALLY quickly.

+1

The people who duck pollsters would crawl through broken glass to cast a ballot.

All we know for sure is that Trump over performed on election day in both 2016 and 2020 relative to pre-election polling data. This wouldn't scare me if our nominee wasn't an 81 year old unpopular incumbent that is more likely to fall more out of favor with swing voters than he is to gain appeal between now and November. As it is, I'm deeply concerned and hoping Joe finds away to turn down the 2024 nomination in time to be replaced by someone much more likely to beat Trump.

Well, unless Biden has a stroke or a heart-attack or something equally awful, it’s not going to happen. Best to focus on getting Biden over the finish line. He’s actually a better candidate than people give him credit for, and he’s going to win.

[Anonymous]

Me again from PP. Too many people see these polls, and instead of motivated to get involved are just paralyzed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think CNN has a motivation to ensure Democrats are not complacent going into this election and expect (and frankly hope) for them to have very little encouraging things to say. We need turnout, no one should think Trump CAN'T win. But I do think that the polls are not telling the abortion tale. I know a woman who lives in Idaho where it has gotten REALLY real REALLY quickly.

That pulls like these do the exact opposite. Too many people think what’s the point of even voting if Trump has it in the bag or oh I guess Biden is not a liked president so I won’t vote. It’s incredibly damaging what they are doing with these polls. They don’t tell the full story. There’s been cases where news outlets are reporting one thing, but when you dig into the date, the exact opposite comes out.

I’m the poster who keeps talking about real data like voter registration, small donor fundraising candidates, running for office Democrats performance in special elections and the midterms. That’s what we should be looking at. Not stupid polls.

I actually think turnout for this election will be the highest of all time. No one will sit it out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think CNN has a motivation to ensure Democrats are not complacent going into this election and expect (and frankly hope) for them to have very little encouraging things to say. We need turnout, no one should think Trump CAN'T win. But I do think that the polls are not telling the abortion tale. I know a woman who lives in Idaho where it has gotten REALLY real REALLY quickly.

+1

The people who duck pollsters would crawl through broken glass to cast a ballot.

All we know for sure is that Trump over performed on election day in both 2016 and 2020 relative to pre-election polling data. This wouldn't scare me if our nominee wasn't an 81 year old unpopular incumbent that is more likely to fall more out of favor with swing voters than he is to gain appeal between now and November. As it is, I'm deeply concerned and hoping Joe finds away to turn down the 2024 nomination in time to be replaced by someone much more likely to beat Trump.

I was VERY anti Biden in 2020. I am not a Biden stan. Although I will say that as a federal employee he has actually been a pretty great president in the sense that the actual FUNCTIONS of government have gone VERY smoothly under this admin because everyone knows what they are doing and also is not evil.

But anyway, not a Biden stan, but I think takes like this are really quite silly. An incumbent has an advantage in an election. While Biden's popularity is low, he has been President in a time of GREAT turmoil, coming out of COVID and leading through the economic fallout that Trump skillfully kicked just a couple years down the road so he could avoid all responsibility for it. The flip side is that as the election approaches a LOT of these things have stabilized. The interest rates will be coming down, I would bet money gas is cheap in November! And the whole party will be beating the abortion drum like our lives depend on it.

D's do not have a deep bench. And we are not truly in a post trump world. Replacing a D presidential nominee between terms projects weakness and lack of confidence. It would be the wrong move. Biden will have everyone rallying around him and projecting stability and calm instead of bickering for six months with other candidates. Let Whitmer prepare for 2028 when she will be unencumbered by the Trump ghost. Spend the next four years actually getting some young up and coming democrats out in the public eye and building name recognition.

I don't know why but Kamala Harris is not sticking, I think it is because she comes across as unlikeable for whatever reason.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think CNN has a motivation to ensure Democrats are not complacent going into this election and expect (and frankly hope) for them to have very little encouraging things to say. We need turnout, no one should think Trump CAN'T win. But I do think that the polls are not telling the abortion tale. I know a woman who lives in Idaho where it has gotten REALLY real REALLY quickly.

That pulls like these do the exact opposite. Too many people think what’s the point of even voting if Trump has it in the bag or oh I guess Biden is not a liked president so I won’t vote. It’s incredibly damaging what they are doing with these polls. They don’t tell the full story. There’s been cases where news outlets are reporting one thing, but when you dig into the date, the exact opposite comes out.

I’m the poster who keeps talking about real data like voter registration, small donor fundraising candidates, running for office Democrats performance in special elections and the midterms. That’s what we should be looking at. Not stupid polls.

I agree with the importance of looking at all the data. That data tells us Dem candidates currently have an advantage over GOP candidates and therefore any normal Dem presidential candidate would have a seemingly insurmountable lead over Trump in the current polling data. Biden does have a 50/50 chance of beating Trump. I just wish the odds of Trump being defeated were greater.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think CNN has a motivation to ensure Democrats are not complacent going into this election and expect (and frankly hope) for them to have very little encouraging things to say. We need turnout, no one should think Trump CAN'T win. But I do think that the polls are not telling the abortion tale. I know a woman who lives in Idaho where it has gotten REALLY real REALLY quickly.

That pulls like these do the exact opposite. Too many people think what’s the point of even voting if Trump has it in the bag or oh I guess Biden is not a liked president so I won’t vote. It’s incredibly damaging what they are doing with these polls. They don’t tell the full story. There’s been cases where news outlets are reporting one thing, but when you dig into the date, the exact opposite comes out.

I’m the poster who keeps talking about real data like voter registration, small donor fundraising candidates, running for office Democrats performance in special elections and the midterms. That’s what we should be looking at. Not stupid polls.

I think you missed my point. I agree with you and believe CNN will be actively trying to scare the crap into getting every voter to the polls. And they will scare people by making it seem REALLY possible (and frankly, it IS really possible) that Trump could win. I agree with you that it is likely not nearly as dire as this seems. But I want the average person feeling like this is, in fact, quite dire.