What dies it take for Russia to stop this war?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:I feel bad for Ukrainians dying- but the upside is lots of Russians are dying and having limbs blown off; the males that can are fleeing. Russian population was already on the decline; Putin literally threw gas on the demise of their society.

Excuse me, the upside?!

There are literally no military strategists who think Russia losing soldiers and equipment is a bad thing for the west.
If we knew the actual numbers of Russian KIA the west could run the number on the price per kill.

The US knows how much direct military hw it has given Ukraine. Say it is 100k kia- if that actual cost is under 20k per kill that is good ROI.
When you factor in equipment loss for Russia the roi goes up even higher.

Don’t be an idiot, PP. the US alone has given Ukraine 68 Billion dollars and Biden just asked Congress for another 37.7 Billion. There are may be 100,000 dead Russian soldiers. That’s a pretty sucky ROI of more than a million per soldier (and that doesn’t even count what the Europeans have kicked in.). And as fast as Ukraine is destroying Russian military equipment, they are also using up US and European munitions. Some tanks have been fired so often, their barrels have worn out and need to be replaced.

The US is not supporting Ukraine out of the petty desire to grind Russia down. Something far more fundamental is at stake - the European post- WWII order in which nations do not militarily invade each other and do not attack civilians or civilian infrastructure. Russia has clearly stated its intention to wipe Ukraine off the map as a nation and has threatened a similar desire to others such as Poland or other countries (like the Baltics) which have significant Russian populations.

Durable peace in free societies is priceless. That is why we are supporting Ukraine - not to grind down the Russian army, which many knew to be a corrupt shambles anyway due to Putin’s kleptocratic leadership.

Coming from an assumed American, that's deliciously ironic.

The irony only exists in the fictitious construct world of your propaganda.

LOL no. Every time America begins to lecture the world on the virtues of human rights and not invading others, every country outside of America is like, sure, Jan.

LOL YES. Every time Putin apologists like you try to peddle your broken talking points and lecture anyone on ANYTHING you end up looking like complete idiots. Sit down, Ivan.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:An interesting take on the history of Crimea that no one wants to talk about:

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/11/25/the-tragedy-of-crimea/

..Since 2014, a number of Western-sponsored polls have likewise shown a high level of support for reunification with Russia. Thus, a Pew survey from April 2014 showed that 91 percent of Crimean respondents believed the 2014 referendum was free and fair. A June 2014 poll, this one by Gallup, found nearly 83 percent of the Crimean population (94 percent of ethnic Russians and 68 percent of ethnic Ukrainians) thought the 2014 referendum reflected the views of the people. A spring 2017 survey conducted by the German-based Center for East European and International Studies found that, if asked to vote again then, 79 percent said they would cast the same vote.

Most striking of all has been the turnaround in the attitude of Crimean Tatars. A 2020 report in Foreign Affairs found that the proportion of Tatars who indicated that they thought being part of Russia would make them better off rose from 50 percent in 2014 to 81 percent in 2019.

Many leading Ukrainian political and cultural figures, including the writers Vasyl Shklyar, Yuri Andrukhovych, and former President Viktor Yushchenko, have referred to Crimea as foreign to Ukraine and depicted its multiculturalism as a threat to the nationalist Ukraine they were trying to create. After 2013, some have suggested letting this territory go its own way. The danger of doing so now, however, according to President Poroshenko’s permanent representative in Crimea, Boris Babin, is that “if we don’t liberate Crimea and the East [militarily], then all of Ukraine will become the East and Crimea.”

..
To be clear, the loss of Crimea stems directly from Russia’s illegal annexation, but, as Ukraine’s first president, Leonid Kravchuk, acknowledged in 2019, it was fed by years of “very aggressive attacks of one region [Galicia in Western Ukraine – NP], which often believes that its ideology is the most correct, the most essential for the Ukrainian people; [and it] encounters the opposition of all regions of Ukraine that have a different ideology, or maybe different views, to be more precise, on the situation in Ukraine.”

To regain their loyalty, Kiev will have to acknowledge the role that its own policies, most notably forcible Ukrainianization, have played in fracturing Ukrainian society, or face the prospect that recapturing these territories will result in a new cycle of violence, at some point in the future.

This “article” is some kind of bizarre a joke - a history of Crimea before 2019 to show why it will be hard for Ukraine to take it now?

There has been a sea change in the thinking of many (probably most) Ukrainians who were formerly pro-Russian (pre-2014). Every Ukrainian has watched how Russia has behaved as it took over Donbas and Crimea in 2014. Russia was unable to provide stable governance, pensions, etc. and those regions have turned into authoritarian kleptocracies run by thugs. Add in how Russia has behaved in the last 10 months - torture, disappearances, filtration camps, separation of minors from their parents or legal guardians, forced deportation to Russia - and TBH very few people except the most hard core Russians still support any kind of Russian governance in Donbas or Crimea. Russia will be lucky if Crimea gets some kind of independent, non-Ukrainian permanent status or a lengthy deferred status.

Another region Russia will never be able to keep Crimea is that from Crimea they can still easily threaten the major grain shipping channels. No one globally is going to support Russia keeping Crimea.

Anything is a bizarre joke when it goes against your biases. But on an off chance that you're serious, there are a few things to consider:

- Crimea's takeover was largely bloodless and did not inspire a popular rebellion because most people in Crimea were uneasy about the forced Ukrainization of the area that was never Ukrainian in history, ethnicity or spirit. Western-sponsored polls after the takeover confirm as much.

- Ukraine is also an authoritarian kleptocracy run by thugs - a fact that was commonly acknowledged but became verboten in February 2022.

- Nobody globally HAS to support Russia keeping Crimea. I mean no one globally supports Israel's continued annexation of the West Bank, and so? Doesn't change a thing.

- What is your evidence for the bolded?

WOW, good job. are you on Putin's payroll??
you don't talk about the fact that most pro-Ukrainian population chose to move away from Crimea to mainland Ukraine.
you also don't mention that a lot of pro-Putin propaganda-fed Russians moved to Crimea and bought up real estate that was basically taken away from Ukrainians and local Tatars. of course your polls will show russia-support increasing.
also, Crimean Tatars are not pro-Russian, that's a big lie. all local Tatar pro-Ukraine activists have been put in jail on made-up charges or vanished without a trace.

but those and many other points wouldn't serve you right. of course you won't talk about those.
you think you can feed your Putin's propaganda here and silly Americans will believe you. Unfortunately for you people who frequent this board are too smart and intelligent to eat that crap.

Would love to ask Jeff to check your IP, though that's useless with high popularity of VPNs in Russia right now.

A Ukrainian-origin academic is a better source on these matters than a random DCUM poster armed with nothing but outrage conveniently produced, packaged in bite-size pieces and held in a spoon near your eager mouth.

Whut? Such gobbledygook nonsense you sprouting now.

[Anonymous]

Military analyst Arda Mevlutoglu told the paper:
“It is… interesting that many large cargo planes are parked on the tarmac, indicating a recent large shipment to the base, possibly cruise missiles…
“The unusually high number of bombers on the tarmac indicates increased operations, if not an imminent large-scale attack.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1704495/russia-massive-air-attack-Ukraine-satellite-image

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Military analyst Arda Mevlutoglu told the paper:
“It is… interesting that many large cargo planes are parked on the tarmac, indicating a recent large shipment to the base, possibly cruise missiles…
“The unusually high number of bombers on the tarmac indicates increased operations, if not an imminent large-scale attack.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1704495/russia-massive-air-attack-Ukraine-satellite-image

More likely shows desperation. Russia is running out of missiles and are likely looking to use conventional bombs. They have been reluctant to use jets and especially bombers, because their jets have been getting shot down.

[Anonymous]

OP. I've been on this thread a while now. This was all I could think of. It's said "a good compromise is when both parties are dissatisfied".

Neither Russians nor Ukrainians will accept a deal that loses their dignity. Not all Russians are guilty and not all Ukrainians will accept that fact. This is a deal with the Devil.

Offer Putin a personal deal for a timed, planned, deliberate transitional abdication of power over the course of one year. In that time, he permits a peaceful transition of power via elections monitored by OSCE. Russian oil profits (less cost) will be held in escrow to pay for damages to Ukraine, and a reasonable, but not excessive amount in compensation for all injuries sustained, not to exceed a period of 25 years. Ukraine will be on the committee that manages the funds and approves reimbursement.

All Russian nuclear weapons must be put in military lockdown, guarded by the Russian military for no less than 5 years, validated by international observers. Maintenance and national threat surveillance measures would continue; however, no readiness exercises or deployment of weaponry would be permitted. This is for Russia's own safety, until the new Government can re-screen and ensure their nuclear weaponry is in safe hands. Russia will be asked to rejoin nuclear talks after it's clear the nuclear weaponry is secure.

Anyone who supported the 'special military operation' is banned from running for office / elected positions.

All Russians who protested the war, fled the country, must be granted absolute amnesty and repatriation / immediate release, if held in incarceration. Those incarcerated may apply for compensation via the oil profits mentioned above.

Russian officers and soldiers who committed war crimes must be held responsible and appear in International Court.

In exchange, Putin, his family, and 200 of his closest confidants / supporters are permitted to leave the country to an undisclosed location of their choice, with their wealth, under the agreement that they refrain from any further political actions, social media, press interviews for the next 25 years (most will be dead by then anyway).

Also, all economic sanctions will be lifted 90d after the new Russian administration assumes power.

Russia agrees that should there be an overthrow of the elected Government within 25 years, or Russia renigs on any of these provisions; then the sanctions / escalation process will be restarted.

No, this deal does not serve justice, but it saves lives and avoids anarchy in Russia, which would serve no point and risk "accidental" nuclear use. Much in the way U.S. DoJ makes deals with criminals as informants, treat Putin the same.

Would Putin bite?

Russian leader "stumbled and fell to his back, after which he fell on his side and slid down a couple of steps".
Putin allegedly fell down the stairs and accidentally defecated himself, according to insiders
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1704836/putin-defecated-himself-stairs-fall-cancer-health-update-russia-war

He's at death's door. The wolves and buzzards are circling. His military is one step away from both civil war or nuclear war.

It's his only hope of preserving his precious Russia intact without it falling into anarchy.

[Anonymous]

And you have to allow him to take credit. It has to be his idea to do this. The press releases should all read "Putin proposes a New Russia". Any hint of weakness on his part, and his own wolves would tear him apart.

[Anonymous]

This was 100% a war of choice by Russia. They are not the aggrieved party. And currently they are not in a winning position. As such, in any negotiations, they should not be entitled to ANYTHING.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This was 100% a war of choice by Russia. They are not the aggrieved party. And currently they are not in a winning position. As such, in any negotiations, they should not be entitled to ANYTHING.

I don't disagree. But.

Have you ever traveled in that part of the World? There's all shades of gray that exist. And if you believe that whomever replaces Putin will be a teddy bear, I think it's a bit naive thinking. Lack of empathy and utter brutality is the hallmark of the Russian Intelligence and Security services (KGB/SVR/FSB). It takes an iron will and strength to rule in that part of the world, and it will take a very, very long time for that to change. It will probably take 50 or a hundred years to ferret out the corruption alone,

And if you think they're bad; the Chinese government does it quietly, with a smile.

And if you believe this country isn't headed down the path of authoritarianism and corruption, you might want to check the other threads and see who's entitled to what here as well?

[Anonymous]

Here's another way of thinking about this.

First play the clip at [01:50 / 01:58], then look carefully at the last shot of Symonian's face after this sentence was spoken. In previous clips, Symonian played along with the other propagandists, usually smiling. This time she seems to have a more natural reaction, versus the cheerleader face she normally has.
Vladimir Solovyov: "There won't be any Hague if this happens. There won't be anything at all. The whole world will be turned into ashes."
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/RaPaMdjn

Note that this portion of the news clip was omitted from the Newsweek edit, so you won't see it there.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-war-crimes-hague-simonyan-tv-pundit-1762946

There was another clip entitled, "Russian TV host threatens viewer who accuses him of lying." Remember this was said on national TV.
Vladimir Solovyov [00:42 / 01:06] "Here is what one man wrote me, someome by the name of Victor Rozumovsky. 'Maybe it's time to stop presenting lies as the truth? Stop deceiving people. Rational thinking people no longer believe any of this.' You know what, Victor? If you are in Russia, we are going to find you. We will find out everything about you. You won't know a moment's peace."
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/ViobYIrq

Russian pundits toy with plotting nuclear strike om Kyiv
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/SVIhpzTa

I know that some feel choosing the lesser of two evils is still choosing evil. If Putin leaves / dies, it does not mean the Ukraine War will be over. There are still many Russians who support Putin's power apparatus that are equally, if not more, vicious and ruthless. Before passing judgement (and it's nice for you to be in a position to do that), consider what would happen if Putin was replaced by the pro-Vladimir Solovyov ultranationalists, or if one of his followers had the power to override a nuclear launch (irrepsective of what the others in the Russian government wants). Even if, in the best case scenario, Russia re-disintegrates like what occurred during the fall of the USSR, the same things that happened back then might happen again.

You have to ask yourself, is it in the world's best interest to see Russian weapons sold off in the black market? To have China buy Russian hypersonic and nuclear technologies? Be very careful what you wish for, my friend.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel bad for Ukrainians dying- but the upside is lots of Russians are dying and having limbs blown off; the males that can are fleeing. Russian population was already on the decline; Putin literally threw gas on the demise of their society.

Excuse me, the upside?!

There are literally no military strategists who think Russia losing soldiers and equipment is a bad thing for the west.
If we knew the actual numbers of Russian KIA the west could run the number on the price per kill.

The US knows how much direct military hw it has given Ukraine. Say it is 100k kia- if that actual cost is under 20k per kill that is good ROI.
When you factor in equipment loss for Russia the roi goes up even higher.

Don’t be an idiot, PP. the US alone has given Ukraine 68 Billion dollars and Biden just asked Congress for another 37.7 Billion. There are may be 100,000 dead Russian soldiers. That’s a pretty sucky ROI of more than a million per soldier (and that doesn’t even count what the Europeans have kicked in.). And as fast as Ukraine is destroying Russian military equipment, they are also using up US and European munitions. Some tanks have been fired so often, their barrels have worn out and need to be replaced.

The US is not supporting Ukraine out of the petty desire to grind Russia down. Something far more fundamental is at stake - the European post- WWII order in which nations do not militarily invade each other and do not attack civilians or civilian infrastructure. Russia has clearly stated its intention to wipe Ukraine off the map as a nation and has threatened a similar desire to others such as Poland or other countries (like the Baltics) which have significant Russian populations.

Durable peace in free societies is priceless. That is why we are supporting Ukraine - not to grind down the Russian army, which many knew to be a corrupt shambles anyway due to Putin’s kleptocratic leadership.

Coming from an assumed American, that's deliciously ironic.

The irony only exists in the fictitious construct world of your propaganda.

LOL no. Every time America begins to lecture the world on the virtues of human rights and not invading others, every country outside of America is like, sure, Jan.

LOL YES. Every time Putin apologists like you try to peddle your broken talking points and lecture anyone on ANYTHING you end up looking like complete idiots. Sit down, Ivan.

Oh honey. Go find another country in need of democracy infusion and invade. Go ahead. You know you want to. Call it operation Toilet Paper or something.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Honestly, I think “what it takes” is for every Russian city, town, and village to be a smoldering hole in the ground. The Russians are like cockroaches- they will find a way to survive even the end of days. Always have, always will. They will always win a war of attrition.

Are you Ukrainian? This would explain your thinking, otherwise you are just a danger to society. You have no idea how many Russians have nothing to do with this war and don’t support it - they just can’t do very much unfortunately.
Do you support all North Koreans or Iranians killed too? Sick!

This is very flawed thinking. we know a lot about what Russians think. Some very small number of citizens have spoken out against the war publicly. Hundreds of thousands of men have left the country to avoid the military draft but by and large Russian men abroad have not used their position of privilege and safety to protest the war. Some men in the military have protested their lack training and equipment, but not their mission; torture, war crimes, attacks on civilian objects and looting by Russian military are widespread indicating that there is little to no opposition to these tactics up and down the chain of command. Many Russian citizens , civilian and military families, express support for the war, using vile, genocidal, racist language. We know this from interviews and social media.

There is a great silent majority who 🙈🙉🙊, but the bystander is on the side of the perpetrator. It doesn’tbmatter if those silent Russians don’t like the war if they are not publicly saying so. No one can excuse them while Ukrainians are sitting in dark unheated house praying to hear from their kidnaped children and hoping to find the bodies of their disappeared relatives.

You have no idea. Russian men who fled still have family in Russia you moron, and the said families will suffer if the men speak out.
Why don’t North Koreans protest, huh? Because they will be thrown in jail that’s why.
You are afraid to say anything remotely non PC for the fear of being cancelled yet you preach to Russians who are risking much more than just a job loss?!
Hypocrisy typical of someone who never lived in an authoritarian country

This is the typical Russian excuse - “we cannot protest because we will suffer negative repercussions.”. What do you think the Ukrainians are suffering? Yes, protests begat beatings and jailings. But, many Russians have been willing to suffer this in order to show that they do not agree with the perpetration of genocide on Ukraine. Other Russians - many more - have been willing, even eager, to take the spoils of war (looted washing machines and cell phones and TVs, etc.) and to take the white car payment for a military death.

By contrast, Belarussians were willing to protest in the streets and go to jail and be beaten. As a result, they have managed to keep the Belarussian Army from invading Ukraine along side Russian forces. They would have managed to topple their dictator had not Putin decided to move Russian troops into Belarus and basically occupy Belarus. Lacking the strength to topple Russian forces, some Belarussians instead engage in sabotage and join the Ukrainian army. Yes, they have family also.

What do you think Iranian women suffer in protest?
What do you think Chinese are going to suffer in protest?

You are even more clueless than I thought
Belarus protests ended by defeat of protesters
They don’t openly participate in war because Lukashenko isn’t crazy and knows it will be suicide for him and his country
They may be forced to get involved though
gosh, you are such a typical clueless Westerner who has no idea what the cost of the protests is outside of democratic countries

.

I think you are the clueless one. Open Belarus protests ended when it became clear that the Russian military were poised to and did move into Russia. But the movement has gone underground and played a key role in keeping Belarus troops out of the war. They have coordinated sabotage of train tracks in order to make trouble for Russian military movements. They report military movements to Ukraine and the West. They reach out to Belarus military and encourage them to refuse orders to attack Ukraine. They help Ukrainians who have been forcibly deported to Russia to return to the West and Ukraine thru Belarus. The Belarus opposition is the reason why, despite a lot of pressure from Putin, Lukashenko does not order the Belarus military to participate with the Russians against Ukraine: Lukashenko knows those orders would not be obeyed and the country would rise up against it. Similarly, Russians do not try to make a puppet governemnt play in Belarus (like they wanted to try in Ukraine and as they have done historically) and replace Lukashenko with someone who will obey Russia because the opposition has shown the ability to organize continuous, nationwide mass protest and the Belarus people have made clear they will participate. Belarussians are doing and risking what Russians will not and because of that they have prevented their country from going to war. As I said, Russians who fail to act, despite possible consequences, are on the side of the perpetrator of genocide and nothing excuses that.

I have every idea what the costs of protests outside the West are. I also have a very good idea what the cost of not protesting is. I studied, lived, worked and traveled widely in Eastern Europe and Russia over the last 3 decades, sometimes during conflict. I have met and talked with leaders of people who rose up in protest and freed Czechoslovakia and Poland and Serbia (from Milosevic, and there are many who still protest the Vucic regime and genocidaires in Serbia).

Protest works even if it takes time and comes at a high cost for some. Russians who are silent are supporting the regime and genocide. Mass Russian protest could end this war, but too many Russians are choosing their own personal comfort. Russians outside Russia have access to accurate information about the war and could easily protest but they don’t because, in truth, they are OK with Russia’s actions as long as they can maintain their high standard of living.

You can spend a long time studying something and still not get it
Protest is futile in Russia for a number of reasons
Mostly because there is nothing to protest FOR
Russians were deceived by their government since at least 1986
The west played along as long the government played by the western rules
So, for Russians, a protest is nothing much to gain and everything to lose

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel bad for Ukrainians dying- but the upside is lots of Russians are dying and having limbs blown off; the males that can are fleeing. Russian population was already on the decline; Putin literally threw gas on the demise of their society.

Excuse me, the upside?!

There are literally no military strategists who think Russia losing soldiers and equipment is a bad thing for the west.
If we knew the actual numbers of Russian KIA the west could run the number on the price per kill.

The US knows how much direct military hw it has given Ukraine. Say it is 100k kia- if that actual cost is under 20k per kill that is good ROI.
When you factor in equipment loss for Russia the roi goes up even higher.

Ok, I thought you were just some hater of all Russians but your explanation does make sense