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Biden’s economy
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Anonymous
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It’s not at 0.2% decrease unless you’re playing numbers games. Inflation MoM increased by 1.23%. The only reason YoY inflation wasn’t as high as last month is because last year April came in up 1.6% MoM.
All Smoke & Mirrors. Inflation is up big month over month. I posted this before the numbers came out. April YoY CPI is expected to come in at 8.1%. March was 8.5% YoY. The only reason this month is expected to come in lower YoY is simply because the increase in inflation from March to April this year is expected to be lower than the same period last year. Even so, an 8.1% increase YoY in April still represents quite a large unsustainable jump. Last years March to April jump was 1.6% leading to a CPI of 4.2%. The 8.1% estimate represents a YoY increase of 8.1% higher than prices were AFTER the 4.2% a year ago (That’s roughly 12.5% price increases over a 24 month period). In order to hit the Feds target rate of inflation of 2% YoY, we should expect an average jump of 0.17 month to month. So, in order for inflation to be increasing at sustainable rates, we should look for 8.5%+0.17%-1.6%= roughly 7.07% (I say “roughly” because when we’re talking about a rate of increase we should factor in the compounding nature of inflation) . Therefore the consensus of 8.1% actually represents a jump of 1.03% month to month higher than sustainable levels. What we want is inflation to be increasing at a rate lower on average than experienced in the trailing 12 months. Last months 8.5% increase in YoY inflation assumes an 0.71% increase on average month to month while this month is expected to be an increase of 1.03% month to month. So what I would like to see is the CPI coming in lower than 7.61% for April 2022, although current April consensus is 0.49% higher. So to get the true feel of how bad inflation is, look at the MoM numbers … not the YoY numbers. Now … I don’t know how the hell analyst came up with that 8.1% consensus. I was expecting much lower given the 1.6% month to month jump last year. But understanding these numbers is important. We don’t want to get lost in the assumption that YoY inflation coming in lower in the latter month than the previous represents a decline in the rate inflation is actually increasing month to month. Inflation is BAD right now. |
Anonymous
“Inflation rates edged down in April compared to a month earlier, showing potential signs of easing” https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/11/april-cpi-federal-reserve/ |
Anonymous
Sweeping generalization. American public cares about loss of freedom. Inflation comes and goes. |
Anonymous
Housing bubble needs to pop. Housing is way too expensive. Rents need to come down. That should help working people and the inflation problem. |
Anonymous
It did not...they're quoting YoY and not MoM changes. People are terrible at math, especially when it comes to comparing changes in relative numbers. |
Anonymous
| Factoring into the not an easing discussion: gas prices have edged up in May so expectations about May inflation numbers are not rosy. |
Anonymous
And, diesel prices are at their highest levels ever which means increased shipping costs. These costs will certainly be passed to the consumers. |
Anonymous
I'm the PP. The market initially took the CPI badly with a huge drop in the futures market. But I guess on second thought the markets have decided to be optimistic and the Dow is now well into positive territory. We'll see if there is a hangover tomorrow as we saw last week with the initial enthusiastic market reaction to the Fed rate hike. |
Anonymous
| So… pretty much businesses raising prices because they can. Sounds about right. |
Anonymous
Abortion doesn’t effect me. I can choose not to have a child by simply using birth control. Inflation is impossible to escape. |
Anonymous
You evidently work for the Biden administration. Businesses are raising prices because THEIR costs have increased substantially. |
Anonymous
I am a small business owner and cost of me doing business has increased about 8% year or year. unfortunately the increase has to be passed on to the consumer and then it comes back to the employers of the consumers to increase wages. It is a never ending battle. This is purely bad policy of this administration, someone remind Powel nothing is transitory except your job. |
Anonymous
You stupid, stupid fool. |