FCPS comprehensive boundary review

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Why is south county so under capacity? That is wasteful.


Probably because it was originally built as a secondary school but then South County Middle opened, creating capacity.

It looks like, over the past decade, the 9-12 enrollment peaked at 2272 in SY 2021-22, but has since declined to about 2090. Latest projections have it at 1955 by 2029-30.

Not sure where you'd get kids to increase the enrollment - maybe from Lake Braddock or West Springfield.


If West Springfield is overcrowded, isn't that a logical shift?


It would seem very illogical to the current West Springfield families.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Westfield was built out to 3000.


It was not. An additional hallway of classrooms was added hastily shortly after it opened but the common areas were not expanded. It is packed right now at 2800 students. The hallways are jam packed, there aren't enough seats in the lunchroom. It was not built for 3000.

The SB has repeatedly said that their preference is for smaller high schools. No one wants a 3000 student high school. It is already impossible to participate in many activities there.


It has a design capacity in the CIP of 2823 and a program capacity of 2707. Those are the numbers they use. Current membership of 2604 and projected to stay flat.


Where do you see these numbers online? They had 2756 last school year so that would be a big drop in one year.


DP. Lots of inaccurate posts today by a poster who apparently relies on documents from five years ago and can't be bothered to access the latest information.


They are not inaccurate - learn the difference between last publicized utilization and projections. If you can bother to read the posts - the projections are always changing.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.



No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.


Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.


You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf


Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.


The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.


Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?


Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.


My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?


Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:new construction in the area:

200 townhouses plus a multifamily apartment building (zoned for Chantilly HS)

https://www.khov.com/new-construction-homes/virginia/chantilly/the-boulevards-at-westfields/?ref=LocalListing_-1_TheBoulevardsatWestfields&utm_source=LocalListing&utm_medium=organic&utm_term=-1&utm_content=TheBoulevardsatWestfields


"Gallery park at westfields" 150 townhouses zoned to westfield
https://www.khov.com/new-construction-homes/virginia/chantilly/gallery-park-at-westfields/maywood/

Commonwealth Place at Westfield (zoned for Westfield)-100? townhouses
https://www.tollbrothers.com/luxury-homes-for-sale/Virginia/Commonwealth-Place-at-Westfields-The-Belle-Haven-Collection

At least 100 townhouses, 'Arpina Valley' Herndon-zoned to Westfield, Coates ES
https://www.zillow.com/community/arpina-valley/31165250_plid/

Overlook at Dulles Tech-Herndon, zoned to Westfield (170 condos)
https://www.stanleymartin.com/virginia/northern-virginia/herndon/overlook-at-dulles-tech?state=va&metroarea=northern%2Bvirginia&view=neighborhoods&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&creativeid=646234452717&utm_keyword=new%2520townhomes%2520herndon%2520va&matchtype=p&network=g&device=c&utm_content=&utm_id=9098025802&utm_campaign=Google_NVA_Search_In-State-Herndon&pos=&utm_term=new%20townhomes%20herndon%20va&gad_source=1&UrlReferrer=%2Fsmart-selected-homes&MetroAreaID=1000&Neighborhood=Overlook_at_Dulles_Tech&CampaignID=1&CampaignCode=1&Trn_CampaignCode=1&Trn_MetroAreaID=1000&Trn_ProjectGroupID=DUT&_gl=1*h2bzhy*_up*MQ..*_gs*MQ..*_ga*NzA2MDYyMzM0LjE3Mzk5OTA2MTU.*_ga_L89ETEH7S8*MTczOTk5MDYxNS4xLjEuMTczOTk5MDYxMy42MC4wLjA.&gclid=CjwKCAiAn9a9BhBtEiwAbKg6fhL8eZ_cFLY6TJeSTTtdBKpfi_F9jDG9DRofqUzTZdl52Xkfc-IaHBoCOE0QAvD_BwE


Park Place, new townhouses, zoned to Herndon, not sure how many units
https://www.stanleymartin.com/virginia/northern-virginia/herndon/park-place?state=va&metroarea=northern%2Bvirginia&view=neighborhoods&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&creativeid=646234452717&utm_keyword=new%2520townhomes%2520herndon%2520va&matchtype=p&network=g&device=c&utm_content=&utm_id=9098025802&utm_campaign=Google_NVA_Search_In-State-Herndon&pos=&utm_term=new%20townhomes%20herndon%20va&gad_source=1&UrlReferrer=%2Fsmart-selected-homes&MetroAreaID=1000&Neighborhood=Park_Place&CampaignID=1&CampaignCode=1&Trn_CampaignCode=1&Trn_MetroAreaID=1000&Trn_ProjectGroupID=HCC&_gl=1*zbehdi*_up*MQ..*_gs*MQ..&gclid=CjwKCAiAn9a9BhBtEiwAbKg6fhL8eZ_cFLY6TJeSTTtdBKpfi_F9jDG9DRofqUzTZdl52Xkfc-IaHBoCOE0QAvD_BwE


That is a lot of new construction.

Does FCPS have data on how many students at each level (ES, MS. HS) a townhouse community will add?


FCPS has a residential development applications dashboard that tracks new development within the county at various stages of development: approved, pending, or under construction. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/08eca5b417f94ca09dc6c384db28c764/

If the development is within the Town of Herndon, that information is not included. If the development is outside the Town of Herndon, but in an area with a Herndon mailing address it should be included. This dashboard was last updated in November 2024.

As of November 2024, the dashboard projected that all the development/potential developmet could add 334 kids to Westfield HS. Note that this development is not reflected in FCPS's official enrollment forecasts included in the annual Capital Improvement Programs unless the developer has broken ground (i.e,. "Under Construction"). For Herndon, the dashboard did not include any projected yield, presumably because the development was inside the Town of Herndon and subject to a separate approval process.

By way of comparison to Westfield, this same dashboard estimated that all the development/potential development in areas zoned to Marshall and McLean could add 770 and 631 high school students, respectively. Note also that enrollment increases due to such development could be offset to varying degrees by declines in enrollment in other areas already zoned to these schools.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.



No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.


Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.


You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf


Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.


The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.


Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?


Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.


My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?



Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.
Anonymous
Just curious-whats the formula they use for how many hypothetical kids will show up from a new development?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Just curious-whats the formula they use for how many hypothetical kids will show up from a new development?


They apply different "yield" formulas to different types of housing. A detached single-family house is projected to yield the most students, followed in order by attached single-family housing (i.e., townhouses), low-rise multi-family housing (i.e., garden apartments), and finally high-rise multi-family housing (i.e., high-rise apartments).

As far as I'm aware, they still apply the same formulas on a county-wide basis, even though the student yields from different types of housing do vary by magisterial district or school pyramid.
Anonymous
They caught 30+ kids sneaking into Hayfield from Woodbridge this year.

I think there needs to be a system wide residency check. We don't even know how many currently enrolled students should be elsewhere.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.



No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.


Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.


You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf


Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.


The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.


Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?


Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.


My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?



Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.


I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.



No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.


Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.


You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf


Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.


The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.


Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?


Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.


My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?



Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.


I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.


No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.



No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.


Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.


You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf


Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.


The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.


Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?


Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.


My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?



Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.


I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.


No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.


No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Why is south county so under capacity? That is wasteful.


Probably because it was originally built as a secondary school but then South County Middle opened, creating capacity.

It looks like, over the past decade, the 9-12 enrollment peaked at 2272 in SY 2021-22, but has since declined to about 2090. Latest projections have it at 1955 by 2029-30.

Not sure where you'd get kids to increase the enrollment - maybe from Lake Braddock or West Springfield.


If West Springfield is overcrowded, isn't that a logical shift?


It would seem very illogical to the current West Springfield families.


There are a few areas that definitely make sense to shift from WSHS to SoCo (and shift the elementary school attendance so they don't create split feeders). I don't think there would be a lot of argument from parents about that shift - it makes sense geographically and in terms of community, etc. There's also a logical shift of a split feeder elementary where they could have all the students track into LBSS - families would probably prefer that anyway. These two moves would solve the overcrowding at WSHS and be met with very little community opposition. But instead the rumor is that an entire elementary school is going to move from WSHS to Lewis that isn't a part of the Lewis community geographically. Complete nonsense if it's true.
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Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.



No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.


Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.


You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf


Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.


The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.


Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?


Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.


My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?



Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.


I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.


No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.


No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down


Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:new construction in the area:

200 townhouses plus a multifamily apartment building (zoned for Chantilly HS)

https://www.khov.com/new-construction-homes/virginia/chantilly/the-boulevards-at-westfields/?ref=LocalListing_-1_TheBoulevardsatWestfields&utm_source=LocalListing&utm_medium=organic&utm_term=-1&utm_content=TheBoulevardsatWestfields


"Gallery park at westfields" 150 townhouses zoned to westfield
https://www.khov.com/new-construction-homes/virginia/chantilly/gallery-park-at-westfields/maywood/

Commonwealth Place at Westfield (zoned for Westfield)-100? townhouses
https://www.tollbrothers.com/luxury-homes-for-sale/Virginia/Commonwealth-Place-at-Westfields-The-Belle-Haven-Collection

At least 100 townhouses, 'Arpina Valley' Herndon-zoned to Westfield, Coates ES
https://www.zillow.com/community/arpina-valley/31165250_plid/

Overlook at Dulles Tech-Herndon, zoned to Westfield (170 condos)
https://www.stanleymartin.com/virginia/northern-virginia/herndon/overlook-at-dulles-tech?state=va&metroarea=northern%2Bvirginia&view=neighborhoods&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&creativeid=646234452717&utm_keyword=new%2520townhomes%2520herndon%2520va&matchtype=p&network=g&device=c&utm_content=&utm_id=9098025802&utm_campaign=Google_NVA_Search_In-State-Herndon&pos=&utm_term=new%20townhomes%20herndon%20va&gad_source=1&UrlReferrer=%2Fsmart-selected-homes&MetroAreaID=1000&Neighborhood=Overlook_at_Dulles_Tech&CampaignID=1&CampaignCode=1&Trn_CampaignCode=1&Trn_MetroAreaID=1000&Trn_ProjectGroupID=DUT&_gl=1*h2bzhy*_up*MQ..*_gs*MQ..*_ga*NzA2MDYyMzM0LjE3Mzk5OTA2MTU.*_ga_L89ETEH7S8*MTczOTk5MDYxNS4xLjEuMTczOTk5MDYxMy42MC4wLjA.&gclid=CjwKCAiAn9a9BhBtEiwAbKg6fhL8eZ_cFLY6TJeSTTtdBKpfi_F9jDG9DRofqUzTZdl52Xkfc-IaHBoCOE0QAvD_BwE


Park Place, new townhouses, zoned to Herndon, not sure how many units
https://www.stanleymartin.com/virginia/northern-virginia/herndon/park-place?state=va&metroarea=northern%2Bvirginia&view=neighborhoods&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&creativeid=646234452717&utm_keyword=new%2520townhomes%2520herndon%2520va&matchtype=p&network=g&device=c&utm_content=&utm_id=9098025802&utm_campaign=Google_NVA_Search_In-State-Herndon&pos=&utm_term=new%20townhomes%20herndon%20va&gad_source=1&UrlReferrer=%2Fsmart-selected-homes&MetroAreaID=1000&Neighborhood=Park_Place&CampaignID=1&CampaignCode=1&Trn_CampaignCode=1&Trn_MetroAreaID=1000&Trn_ProjectGroupID=HCC&_gl=1*zbehdi*_up*MQ..*_gs*MQ..&gclid=CjwKCAiAn9a9BhBtEiwAbKg6fhL8eZ_cFLY6TJeSTTtdBKpfi_F9jDG9DRofqUzTZdl52Xkfc-IaHBoCOE0QAvD_BwE


It appears that the Chantilly zoned development is pretty much complete and was developed and many units sold in 2023.

There is still construction in the Coates area (Westfield). These are not inexpensive units and Herndon is closer than Westfield I think those units on Herndon Parkway may also be complete.

So, I'm not sure how current that information is.
It may be the same for some of the others.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
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Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.



No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.


Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.


You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf


Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.


The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.


Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?


Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.


My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?



Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.


I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.


No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.


No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down


Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.


Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.
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