
It would seem very illogical to the current West Springfield families. |
They are not inaccurate - learn the difference between last publicized utilization and projections. If you can bother to read the posts - the projections are always changing. |
My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted. Yours? |
Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30. Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline. |
Just curious-whats the formula they use for how many hypothetical kids will show up from a new development? |
They apply different "yield" formulas to different types of housing. A detached single-family house is projected to yield the most students, followed in order by attached single-family housing (i.e., townhouses), low-rise multi-family housing (i.e., garden apartments), and finally high-rise multi-family housing (i.e., high-rise apartments). As far as I'm aware, they still apply the same formulas on a county-wide basis, even though the student yields from different types of housing do vary by magisterial district or school pyramid. |
They caught 30+ kids sneaking into Hayfield from Woodbridge this year.
I think there needs to be a system wide residency check. We don't even know how many currently enrolled students should be elsewhere. |
I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours. Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity. This is causing an argument just to nitpick. |
No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP. If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected. |
No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down |
There are a few areas that definitely make sense to shift from WSHS to SoCo (and shift the elementary school attendance so they don't create split feeders). I don't think there would be a lot of argument from parents about that shift - it makes sense geographically and in terms of community, etc. There's also a logical shift of a split feeder elementary where they could have all the students track into LBSS - families would probably prefer that anyway. These two moves would solve the overcrowding at WSHS and be met with very little community opposition. But instead the rumor is that an entire elementary school is going to move from WSHS to Lewis that isn't a part of the Lewis community geographically. Complete nonsense if it's true. |
Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment. |
Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029. And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity. |