FCPS comprehensive boundary review

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.

Add to that, there is no one in the Chantilly boundary that has a closer high school to attend. Westfield is full and so is Centreville.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

There was a noticeable decline in pregnancies and births during the last great recession. There are fewer kids born in 2010-2011.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

I don't

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

There was a noticeable decline in pregnancies and births during the last great recession. There are fewer kids born in 2010-2011.

Why isn't there that drop in other schools? Looks to me like it is a factor of a maturing community.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.

Add to that, there is no one in the Chantilly boundary that has a closer high school to attend. Westfield is full and so is Centreville.

Once Centerville expansion is done they will be at 69% and then there will be the discrepancy like there is from Herndon to Langley and Lewis to WSHs. Will Chantilly families care about moving to Centerville then?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.

Add to that, there is no one in the Chantilly boundary that has a closer high school to attend. Westfield is full and so is Centreville.

Once Centerville expansion is done they will be at 69% and then there will be the discrepancy like there is from Herndon to Langley and Lewis to WSHs. Will Chantilly families care about moving to Centerville then?

No. But, I suspect that neighborhood behind Centreville property that goes to Fairfax will be delighted!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why is south county so under capacity? That is wasteful.

That is one of the few areas in FCPS with room for development.

The school was designed accordingly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why is south county so under capacity? That is wasteful.

Probably because it was originally built as a secondary school but then South County Middle opened, creating capacity.

It looks like, over the past decade, the 9-12 enrollment peaked at 2272 in SY 2021-22, but has since declined to about 2090. Latest projections have it at 1955 by 2029-30.

Not sure where you'd get kids to increase the enrollment - maybe from Lake Braddock or West Springfield.

If West Springfield is overcrowded, isn't that a logical shift?

It is much closer than Lewis for most of WSHS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.

Add to that, there is no one in the Chantilly boundary that has a closer high school to attend. Westfield is full and so is Centreville.

Once Centerville expansion is done they will be at 69% and then there will be the discrepancy like there is from Herndon to Langley and Lewis to WSHs. Will Chantilly families care about moving to Centerville then?

No one wants to leave Chantilly. My kid has no problem being in the modular.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.

Add to that, there is no one in the Chantilly boundary that has a closer high school to attend. Westfield is full and so is Centreville.

Once Centerville expansion is done they will be at 69% and then there will be the discrepancy like there is from Herndon to Langley and Lewis to WSHs. Will Chantilly families care about moving to Centerville then?

No one wants to leave Chantilly. My kid has no problem being in the modular.

Chantilly seems to work fine. Proves that it can be done. And, it is not a "wealthy" school, but the proximity makes it easier for the kids to interact. I do remember once-when my DD had a project with a student who had PP'd there--that it was a pain in the neck to get them together to work on the project. It is a community school.

[Anonymous]

What are the chances that the boundary changes don't happen? Curious with the new administration ending DEI initiatives, which was one of the driving forces for the change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What are the chances that the boundary changes don't happen? Curious with the new administration ending DEI initiatives, which was one of the driving forces for the change.

Minimal. If anything, they will double down on seeing themselves as part of “the resistance” and implementing boundary changes to advance their agenda (vetted with lawyers to avoid being expressly race-based).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.

Add to that, there is no one in the Chantilly boundary that has a closer high school to attend. Westfield is full and so is Centreville.

Once Centerville expansion is done they will be at 69% and then there will be the discrepancy like there is from Herndon to Langley and Lewis to WSHs. Will Chantilly families care about moving to Centerville then?

No one wants to leave Chantilly. My kid has no problem being in the modular.

+1. Ask people at “crowded” West Springfield and McLean and they will tell you the same thing. And West Springfield does not even have a modular.

They are not interested in being responsive to the families at these schools. They want to redistribute kids to “fix” other schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.

Add to that, there is no one in the Chantilly boundary that has a closer high school to attend. Westfield is full and so is Centreville.

Once Centerville expansion is done they will be at 69% and then there will be the discrepancy like there is from Herndon to Langley and Lewis to WSHs. Will Chantilly families care about moving to Centerville then?

No one wants to leave Chantilly. My kid has no problem being in the modular.

+1. Ask people at “crowded” West Springfield and McLean and they will tell you the same thing. And West Springfield does not even have a modular.

They are not interested in being responsive to the families at these schools. They want to redistribute kids to “fix” other schools.

The Modulars are nice if you like to go outside to get some fresh air while walking to and from your next class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.

Add to that, there is no one in the Chantilly boundary that has a closer high school to attend. Westfield is full and so is Centreville.

Once Centerville expansion is done they will be at 69% and then there will be the discrepancy like there is from Herndon to Langley and Lewis to WSHs. Will Chantilly families care about moving to Centerville then?

No one wants to leave Chantilly. My kid has no problem being in the modular.

+1. Ask people at “crowded” West Springfield and McLean and they will tell you the same thing. And West Springfield does not even have a modular.

They are not interested in being responsive to the families at these schools. They want to redistribute kids to “fix” other schools.

+2.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So - I checked the calendar; We should be ending "Data Collection" phase and begin the "Draft Analysis and Draft Scenarios" phase;

June 2025 is the "Community Engagement";

So - the items I'm reading on the thread seem to be more speculation? what am I missing?

I'm looking at HS utilization - Herndon is at 114% and Langley is at 90%. McLean and Marshall are at 128% and 119%. Why is there so much talk about moving kids from Langley to Herndon? You are going to move from a less utilized to over utilized school to teach Langley parents a lesson? I can see moving kids from McLean to Langley the schools are close to each other. Marshall to Falls Church. Falls Church to Annandale;

South Fairfax has the greatest capacity. Logic would indicate shift of students north to south.

No idea where you’re getting these Herndon numbers from. FCPS has Herndon HS at 69% capacity in 2029-30.

And no one wants to be shifted south into low performing schools that often have unattractive IB programs.

Can you show me your source? This is the only one I could find: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/high2019-20.pdf

I know mine is 5 years old but that's all I could find on the web-site.

You are looking at an old document with capacity numbers that predate Herndon’s expansion.

The latest: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf

Thx. This document goes wildly the other way - Centerville/Chantilly boxed in Wakefield. They need to go North to Herndon/South Lakes/ Oakton/ Madison. Not sure about the racial-balancing conspiracy. You have your hands full just balancing capacity.

If you target Langley to Herndon that would be at the expense of Centerville and Chantilly. If these are the numbers they are going by then no-choice. Madison and Herndon are the only path for these schools.

The CIP they just approved provided for a major expansion of Centreville to 3000 seats.

Chantilly families are in no rush to move and the enrollment is projected to decline.

There are some parents absolutely obsessed with filling up Herndon with kids from schools other than Langley.

Just to be clear; I'm a Herndon grad. Looked at Herndon after renovation and it looks great. Very close with colleagues that have kids in Herndon. In my graduating class - we had one go to Stanford, Princeton, John's Hopkins, and Brown.

My obsession isn't with not going to Herndon it's chasing down some real truth since a lot of what's been said doesn't make sense.

And Chantilly according to the doc will be at 125%(2029-2030) directly contradicts what you just said. Which makes me wonder why you are throwing stones?

Chantilly had a membership of 2916 in the fall of 2024. They are projecting that its enrollment will decline to 2605 by 2029-30.

The latest projections have Chantilly at 98% by 2029-30, including the modular, and 112% excluding the modular (not 125%).

You can talk to Chantilly families, and you aren't going to find many who want to move. Your quest to "chase down some real truth" should start by looking at the latest projections, portraying them accurately rather than inaccurately, and talking to more people in the area.

My source: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Draft-Proposed-CIP-FY2026-30.pdf which someone else posted.

Yours?

Same, except I'm reading it correctly. There's nothing in that CIP that projects Chantilly at 125% in 2029-30, as asserted above. The CIP has Chantilly at 125% of program capacity now and next year, exluding the modular currently at the school, and projected to decline to 112%, again excluding the modular, by 2029-30. If the modular were included (and FCPS long took the position that modular seats should be treated the same as permanent seats when considering whether a school was overcrowded), FCPS's latest projection has Chantilly at 98% capacity in 2029-30.

Chantilly has the most compact boundaries in FCPS, along with West Springfield, and people do not want to be moved out of the school, especially if the enrollment is projected to decline.

I read it correctly - you just cherry picked yours.

Even going with your numbers: 98% crowded in 2029/2030 (on an estimate). You need to rephrase to: Chantilly will be overcrowded for at least 5 years. You stated that Chantilly has no reason to move. I guess if your kid is in 3rd grade then Chantilly HS would probably be at capacity.

This is causing an argument just to nitpick.

No, you did not read the CIP correctly, and you misquoted it earlier. The fact that you did so gives you no excuse to put words in my mouth (for example, I never said that Chantilly has "no reason to move," but instead that Chantilly families do not "want" to move) and wish that I'd said something other than what I actually did say when accurately characterizing the information in the latest CIP.

If you want to nitpick, at least show up with a full deck so we have something to discuss. All that's happening now is that you're getting corrected.

No one wants to move but Reid and the school board don’t care. Chantilly is going to be crowded for at least 5 years. They have said at multiple school board meetings they want to do away with Modulars. I don’t know what will happen but it seems unlikely to leave one of the most crowded schools in the county alone and move kids out of under enrolled schools. They want to look at these every 5 years. I bet the SB says we will move you now and revisit in 5 years if population goes down

Chantilly's current 9th grade membership is currently more than 100 fewer than the senior class. I'm not sure about other factors, but, to me, that indicates a decreasing enrollment.

Yep. The latest enrollment numbers are consistent with the forecasts that suggest that Chantilly will not be overcrowded, taken the modular seats into account, by 2029.

And while the SB has talked about getting kids out of modulars, the cost of installing them can run into the millions, so they haven't really considered that it's inefficient not to make use of modular seats that have already been added. The alternative - moving kids around when families don't want to move - seems like political suicide. Mostly we hear about the need to get kids out of modulars from people like Rachna Sizemore-Heizer, who doesn't give a shit about Chantilly and who doesn't have to worry since her kids are out of school and the only school she really cares about - Lake Braddock - has capacity.

Add to that, there is no one in the Chantilly boundary that has a closer high school to attend. Westfield is full and so is Centreville.

Once Centerville expansion is done they will be at 69% and then there will be the discrepancy like there is from Herndon to Langley and Lewis to WSHs. Will Chantilly families care about moving to Centerville then?

No one wants to leave Chantilly. My kid has no problem being in the modular.

+1. Ask people at “crowded” West Springfield and McLean and they will tell you the same thing. And West Springfield does not even have a modular.

They are not interested in being responsive to the families at these schools. They want to redistribute kids to “fix” other schools.

If you ask families that are in danger of moving from WSHS to Lewis, of course they will say they want to stay. If you ask WSHS families who are safe from being moved, they probably won't care if others are moved or would be happy to have more elbow room in the hallways.