Early Predictions 2028: AOC, Whitmer, Newsome or …?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not a chance. Not what people want. I think Mark Cuban should jump in.

What are you basing this on? Because...

Andy Beshear has an approval rating of 68% in a state trump carried 64%-33%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not a chance. Not what people want. I think Mark Cuban should jump in.

What are you basing this on? Because...

Andy Beshear has an approval rating of 68% in a state trump carried 64%-33%

DP. Idk how predictive that is. The Beshears are a much-loved family in the state.

[Anonymous]

2028 is hard to predict because there will still be enough Boomers to maintain their Boomer voting habits that someone like Shapiro could run and win the nomination. However, the Boomers are slowly leaving this world and voting habits will abruptly shift thereafter.

But as we are seeing in NYC and Minneapolis, don't rule out an extreme socialist finally breaking through for the Democrats.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:2028 is hard to predict because there will still be enough Boomers to maintain their Boomer voting habits that someone like Shapiro could run and win the nomination. However, the Boomers are slowly leaving this world and voting habits will abruptly shift thereafter.

But as we are seeing in NYC and Minneapolis, don't rule out an extreme socialist finally breaking through for the Democrats.

The Democrats need the Boomers to win. They were the only group where Democrats expanded support in the last election.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not a chance. Not what people want. I think Mark Cuban should jump in.

I disagree. Most people I talk to simply just want to get back to “normal” and things simply haven’t been normal since 2016. A centrist well liked guy like Beshear will probably sweep the election, especially if the republicans go with someone nutty. I personally know republicans that are not a fan of the Trump Circus administration and “just want him to do his job”.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not a chance. Not what people want. I think Mark Cuban should jump in.

This. I actually think mark cuban + a centrist could win.

What are Mark Cuban’s qualifications? And don’t tell me that because he’s a rich businessman he’s just what America needs. We’ve all had enough billionaires fking up the country.

He has been really impressive on healthcare/prescription drugs. I am hugely skeptical of businessmen being qualified for president. Government is not a business. It's a whole different thing. But Cuban sounds like he gets the difference, and I think he could be a very effective president.

His other political advantages: Name recognition through Shark Tank and NBA ownership, charisma, likability/good humor, leadership ability, communicates well (was an excellent surrogate for Kamala's campaign), and he's clearly an alpha male but not in a toxic way. I've also never heard any hint of scandal or bad behavior.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2028 is hard to predict because there will still be enough Boomers to maintain their Boomer voting habits that someone like Shapiro could run and win the nomination. However, the Boomers are slowly leaving this world and voting habits will abruptly shift thereafter.

But as we are seeing in NYC and Minneapolis, don't rule out an extreme socialist finally breaking through for the Democrats.

The Democrats need the Boomers to win. They were the only group where Democrats expanded support in the last election.

Yes, and they're getting old enough that their numbers are slowly declining. The Boomers won't be enough in 2028. Once Trump's four years of feckless rule are over, I doubt there will be much enthusiasm for Vance. However, Dems have been trying hard to fight off the socialist wing of their party by fending off Bernie Sanders. I think 2028 is the last cycle where they'll succeed, so I see someone like Shapiro winning.

Whitmer probably has too much COVID baggage. Newsom might be able to get the anti-Trump vote, but I think Trump hatred is dying down and will be a low boil by the time his next term is up.

[Anonymous]

lol at the people calling Newsom a centrist.

Anyway, the ads write themselves. GOP just needs to have video of Newsom saying you can’t see your family for Thanksgiving, then show him having unmasked meal with a huge group of random people himself, then show him shutting down public schools for months, with his own kids continuing to go to their private in person, etc. and then the message RULES FOR YOU, NOT ME.

Those ads will fit right in with the recent no kings protests.

They can also include how Newsom had an affair with someone on his campaign team, to make it clear that he doesn’t have morals in his personal life either.

Then they can show ads of all the filth in California, hosing down human poop in the streets every morning, notices that the glass companies are completely out of stock of glass from all the smash and grabs that are continually allowed to happen, and then show the mass exodus out of California from the tax base and say that people are voting with their feet. Including people like beloved in and out heiress with deep family ties to California who say that California is too hard to have a family in and too hard to have a business.

It will be handing a win straight to the GOP.

[Anonymous]

We’re in a no-win situation now. We’ve got a big divide in the party. It was bad enough when it was socialist Bernie vs centrist Hillary. Already there was a serious conflict of visions and strong emotions. But now it’s milquetoast white guys on one hand who seem like watered down Republicans, vs progressives on the other hand whose priority issue seems to be helping illegal immigrants. Neither side seems capable of uniting our party. And neither side seems likely to excite swing voters.

[Anonymous]

It also may be too late for us to credibly pivot to normalcy. The centrists are right that we have to back off of woke excesses. But after Covid and the trans push, normal flyover folks don’t trust Democrats to be normal, even if our candidates look and act normal. We all think, with good reason, that JD Vance is a crazy right winger. But the average moderate family anywhere outside of blue coastal cities considers him way more normal than Tim Walz. Walz wasn’t perfect as a “regular guy.” People like Beshear and Shapiro would be better. But Biden was supposed to be a regular guy centrist too, and didn’t turn out that way in the eyes of swing voters. Even if Beshear or Shapiro apologize for Covid excesses and trans excesses, swing voters won’t trust them. And, by the way, if they did apologize for Covid and trans excesses, we dcurbans would hate them for it. Beshear and Shapiro look the part for a return to common sense. But the party branding is wrong. In spite of Trump’s crazy excesses, the Republican *party* owns the “common sense” branding in the eyes of swing voters. Houston, we have a serious problem. Andy Beshear and AOC are the possible paths. Neither one of them can unite the party or excite swing voters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It also may be too late for us to credibly pivot to normalcy. The centrists are right that we have to back off of woke excesses. But after Covid and the trans push, normal flyover folks don’t trust Democrats to be normal, even if our candidates look and act normal. We all think, with good reason, that JD Vance is a crazy right winger. But the average moderate family anywhere outside of blue coastal cities considers him way more normal than Tim Walz. Walz wasn’t perfect as a “regular guy.” People like Beshear and Shapiro would be better. But Biden was supposed to be a regular guy centrist too, and didn’t turn out that way in the eyes of swing voters. Even if Beshear or Shapiro apologize for Covid excesses and trans excesses, swing voters won’t trust them. And, by the way, if they did apologize for Covid and trans excesses, we dcurbans would hate them for it. Beshear and Shapiro look the part for a return to common sense. But the party branding is wrong. In spite of Trump’s crazy excesses, the Republican *party* owns the “common sense” branding in the eyes of swing voters. Houston, we have a serious problem. Andy Beshear and AOC are the possible paths. Neither one of them can unite the party or excite swing voters.

+1

The Democrats fundamentally have a trust problem with voters but DCUM Democrats cannot believe that.

I suspect this is why Rahm just broke so sharply on trans issues. But I don’t think it will work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Not a chance. Not what people want. I think Mark Cuban should jump in.

This. I actually think mark cuban + a centrist could win.

Agreed. As a business man he’s a problem solver. That’s what we need.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:lol at the people calling Newsom a centrist.

Anyway, the ads write themselves. GOP just needs to have video of Newsom saying you can’t see your family for Thanksgiving, then show him having unmasked meal with a huge group of random people himself, then show him shutting down public schools for months, with his own kids continuing to go to their private in person, etc. and then the message RULES FOR YOU, NOT ME.

Those ads will fit right in with the recent no kings protests.

They can also include how Newsom had an affair with someone on his campaign team, to make it clear that he doesn’t have morals in his personal life either.

Then they can show ads of all the filth in California, hosing down human poop in the streets every morning, notices that the glass companies are completely out of stock of glass from all the smash and grabs that are continually allowed to happen, and then show the mass exodus out of California from the tax base and say that people are voting with their feet. Including people like beloved in and out heiress with deep family ties to California who say that California is too hard to have a family in and too hard to have a business.

It will be handing a win straight to the GOP.

What parts of California do you visit where you see filth?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It also may be too late for us to credibly pivot to normalcy. The centrists are right that we have to back off of woke excesses. But after Covid and the trans push, normal flyover folks don’t trust Democrats to be normal, even if our candidates look and act normal. We all think, with good reason, that JD Vance is a crazy right winger. But the average moderate family anywhere outside of blue coastal cities considers him way more normal than Tim Walz. Walz wasn’t perfect as a “regular guy.” People like Beshear and Shapiro would be better. But Biden was supposed to be a regular guy centrist too, and didn’t turn out that way in the eyes of swing voters. Even if Beshear or Shapiro apologize for Covid excesses and trans excesses, swing voters won’t trust them. And, by the way, if they did apologize for Covid and trans excesses, we dcurbans would hate them for it. Beshear and Shapiro look the part for a return to common sense. But the party branding is wrong. In spite of Trump’s crazy excesses, the Republican *party* owns the “common sense” branding in the eyes of swing voters. Houston, we have a serious problem. Andy Beshear and AOC are the possible paths. Neither one of them can unite the party or excite swing voters.

If it came down to a Progressive vs Centrist (ex. Beshear vs AOC) it is going to go the Centrist. The centrist has the benefit of the southern secret weapon: Black Voters. I come from a southern traditional Black family who regularly vote democrat and they are never ever going to pick someone like AOC in a primary. Bernie failed in 2016 in the south and it will probably be a repeat of that situation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:lol at the people calling Newsom a centrist.

Anyway, the ads write themselves. GOP just needs to have video of Newsom saying you can’t see your family for Thanksgiving, then show him having unmasked meal with a huge group of random people himself, then show him shutting down public schools for months, with his own kids continuing to go to their private in person, etc. and then the message RULES FOR YOU, NOT ME.

Those ads will fit right in with the recent no kings protests.

They can also include how Newsom had an affair with someone on his campaign team, to make it clear that he doesn’t have morals in his personal life either.

Then they can show ads of all the filth in California, hosing down human poop in the streets every morning, notices that the glass companies are completely out of stock of glass from all the smash and grabs that are continually allowed to happen, and then show the mass exodus out of California from the tax base and say that people are voting with their feet. Including people like beloved in and out heiress with deep family ties to California who say that California is too hard to have a family in and too hard to have a business.

It will be handing a win straight to the GOP.

What parts of California do you visit where you see filth?

Please don’t do this. I live in California and I see filth every day — and I am in a nice suburb. I’m a lifelong Californian and watching what has happened to my state is heartbreaking.

I do not know any Californians that want Newsom to run.