Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Putin is a master strategist.

With Finland’s entrance into NATO, Russia’s direct border with NATO has effectively tripled.

Not only that, but the Gulf Of Finland is now controlled by two NATO countries; Finland and Estonia.

If necessary, these two countries alone can cut off St. Petersburg completely from the sea.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Putin is a master strategist.

With Finland’s entrance into NATO, Russia’s direct border with NATO has effectively tripled.

Not only that, but the Gulf Of Finland is now controlled by two NATO countries; Finland and Estonia.

If necessary, these two countries alone can cut off St. Petersburg completely from the sea.

Agree that it makes it easier for NATO to monitor anything in an out of the Baltic Sea, but there is an even bigger military blunder that Putin and his obsession with Ukraine caused. Yes, land border is effectively tripled, but even more significant is that Lappeenranta, Finland is about a 3 hour drive to St. Petersburg (Western Military District, 6th Army and the 6th Air and Air Defense Forces Army Headquarters) and only 197 km by air. That's 6 minutes, as the crow flies (F-16 speed). That also means that Finland will be assisting NATO with information it didn't have access to before, including the possibility of future monitoring stations.

It also means that within a 10 minute flight, a lot more of Russia is exposed now. For example: 14th Army Corps HQ, 420th Maritime Recon Point, Monchegorsk air base, Olenya air base, 583rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, 531st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, Severomorsk-3 air base, Severomorsk-1 air base, Monchegorsk air base, Olenya air base, 80th Artic Mechanized Brigade, 200th Mechanized Brigade, 61st Naval Infantry Brigade, Gremikha Naval Base, Murmansk-150 (Zaozersk) naval base, Vidyayevo naval base, Severomorsk naval base, Polyarny naval base, Roslyakovo naval base, Mishukovo naval base, Murmansk naval base, Gadzhiyevo naval base, Polyarny naval base, 536th Coastal Missile Brigade, 45th Air and Air Defense Forces Army and the Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command Headquarters.

Another concern for Russia - if Russia further disintegrates, I would think it's even possible that St Petersburg down to Veliky Novgorod has a chance of going European? If so, all of these bases could get cut off from a logistics standpoint?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/red-is-dead-russian-anti-war-protesters-fly-a-new-flag-for-peace

[Anonymous]

And apologies. When I said "Russians" I meant the Russian Government. There is a difference between how some ordinary Russians feel about their Government's policies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There's now renewed fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia and they both know Russia now lacks any military capability to serve as "peacekeeper" in that conflict.

https://www.newsweek.com/firefight-azerbaijan-armenia-border-may-spell-bad-news-putin-1794060

Armenia has very publicly turned away from Russia since their "velvet" revolution, and like Ukraine started looking more to the West than East. Armenia is a small nation without a protector currently, and Azerbaijan is taking advantage of that to fix some post-Soviet border issues.

Armenia is probably hoping the West will step in and defend their borders, since post 1991 borders are now sacred. Plus, if Azerbaijan isn't stopped, they will probably conquer all of the Caucus, Central Asia and Eastern Europe. So we better start sending billions of dollars and F-16s to Armenia while we can.

Armenia borders with Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran. Tell me, how will West step in and defend their borders? Like, how?

DP. lol. You really don't understand the West at all, do you.

That mess is helping to keep Russian troops pinned down, so what possible motive would the US have to intervene?

The US will monitor, but unless the conflict involves Turkey or the Iranian hotheads climb into their zodiacs and fire AK's at the passing ships again; I doubt the US would want to do much?

Of course, the Russian handlers tell the Republican stooges under their influence to do something, if they really really want US troops that close to the Russian Border? Highly doubt it, though.

Besides, it's much more interesting to read about the new Russian conscription rules.

"Those who fail to show up at a recruitment office promptly will soon face a raft of new restrictions related to banking, selling property and even gaining access to a driver's license. Already before the reform, people who refused orders to serve in the military have faced a possible prison sentence of up to 10 years."
" the Defense Ministry in December said it planned to increase the size of the military by 30% to 1.5 million soldiers."
https://www.npr.org/2023/04/13/1169464889/russia-military-draft-ukraine-war

I wonder what happened to the first million soldiers from last year that Russia needs another 500K?

First Fomin, now Bagirov? Russian propagandists are really dropping like flies in Russia, aren't they?
https://closetheskyoverukraine.com/latest-news/putin-s-propagandist-dies-suddenly


Even Solovyev has gone delusional.

He was so happy before. It's sad.
[vimeo]https://v.redd.it/zw3r78hf8pta1/HLSPlaylist.m3u8?f=sd%2ChlsSpecOrder&v=1&a=1684031664%2CZDg3MTlkOTQ3YWZmNTNlZDA2N2UwMTc5Y2MxYTY4OGRjZTUyZGVlMWNmYmEyNmI3ZTMyYjU3MTI0MWU0NzU0OA%3D%3D[/vimeo]

Didn’t I say yesterday the West doesn’t care? You’re preaching to the choir. The suffering of small nations is rarely of interest. Especially when the attacker has “geopolitical importance”.

[Anonymous]

Russia cannot even produce this common, 1800s-era technology, crucial to making any new tanks, but subject to western embargo:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?sh=4b8c3c5a23f2

- the simple ball bearing.

The US, EU, and Japan make them.

Russians are too stupid to produce them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russia cannot even produce this common, 1800s-era technology, crucial to making any new tanks, but subject to western embargo:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?sh=4b8c3c5a23f2

- the simple ball bearing.

The US, EU, and Japan make them.

Russians are too stupid to produce them.

I don't think Russia is 'too stupid'. I think Russia is 'too empty'. It's a dying country.

"At present, Russian law requires men aged 18-27 are required to perform military service."

I couldn't figure out why Russia made a crazy law like this:

"The new bill, which was authored by State Duma Defense Committee chair Andrei Kartapolov and two other deputies from the ruling United Russia party, raises the upper age limit for conscription to 30."
"It also mandates the gradual raising of the minimum conscription age, increasing it to 19 in 2024, to 20 in 2025, and finally to 21 in 2026."
"The introduction of the bill follows President Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal to increase Russia’s combat personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million in December."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/14/russian-lawmakers-introduce-bill-raising-draft-age-a80477

PROBLEM #1:
Under 18 years (23%) and 45+ (42%) leaves about 50.4 Million (35%) of the Russian population in the age range capable of fighing in Ukraine. However only 41K (4.26%) of the Russian military are women. If about half of the Russian population are women that means that less than 25.16 Million males are eligible for combat service (if everyone is healthy, fit for military service, etc).

Putting this another way, about 6% (1.5M) of all Russian males would be in the Russian military. That also means that this 6% would be consuming, not contributing towards, the Russian economy (e.g. the tribble factor) and it's productivity and is the rosiest picture that could ever be drawn

https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/women-russian-military#:~:text=Women%20in%20the%20Russian%20military%20today&text=In%20May%202020%2C%20Minister%20of,forces%2C%20according%20to%20official%20figures.

PROBLEM #2:
This also means about 42% of the population is 'carried' in terms of social programs and pensions by no more than 35% of the population (before subtracting out the military, wounded veterans, criminals, etc.).

When you look at the official labor rates (about 55% women and 70% men) translates to approximately 13.75'ish million women, 17.5 million men comprising the Russian labor force.

That 6% tribble factor starts looking closer to 8 or 9%, and remember this is ONLY the Russian military - not the bloated Russian Government or security apparatus, criminals, wounded veterans, mentally ill, etc.

PROBLEM #3:
With a birthrate of 1.5, Russia will halve it's population about every two generations.
Normally, Russia would have a "net loss of one person every 30 seconds"
Assuming 365 days/yr * 24 hr/day * 60 sec/hr = 525,600 sec/yr; that's a loss of 17,520/yr.

But this past year it's estimated that Russia lost ten times that in Ukraine; many who may not have been old enough to start a family.

PROBLEM #4:
Look at this chart. This was 2021, so add two years shift.



Notice how small the draft pool is?
Notice how small the under 18 pool is compared to the 40+? (e.g. unlikely to have children at that age)

It's the population equivalent of a 'deadpool.'

Bottom line - I think this is why they're inching up the draft age - to ride the 'hump' of males as they get older and raise families?

[Anonymous]

And if you notice, the Russian Trolls seem to have been pulled off the thread? Haven't seen them much lately. My guess is this is taboo info - probably a State Secret in Russia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And if you notice, the Russian Trolls seem to have been pulled off the thread? Haven't seen them much lately. My guess is this is taboo info - probably a State Secret in Russia.

Why would we even post here anymore? Only dedicated shills still think Ukraine can win.

You need to roll out that spring offensive if you want to get this dance going again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia cannot even produce this common, 1800s-era technology, crucial to making any new tanks, but subject to western embargo:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?sh=4b8c3c5a23f2

- the simple ball bearing.

The US, EU, and Japan make them.

Russians are too stupid to produce them.

I don't think Russia is 'too stupid'. I think Russia is 'too empty'. It's a dying country.

"At present, Russian law requires men aged 18-27 are required to perform military service."

I couldn't figure out why Russia made a crazy law like this:

"The new bill, which was authored by State Duma Defense Committee chair Andrei Kartapolov and two other deputies from the ruling United Russia party, raises the upper age limit for conscription to 30."
"It also mandates the gradual raising of the minimum conscription age, increasing it to 19 in 2024, to 20 in 2025, and finally to 21 in 2026."
"The introduction of the bill follows President Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal to increase Russia’s combat personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million in December."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/14/russian-lawmakers-introduce-bill-raising-draft-age-a80477

PROBLEM #1:
Under 18 years (23%) and 45+ (42%) leaves about 50.4 Million (35%) of the Russian population in the age range capable of fighing in Ukraine. However only 41K (4.26%) of the Russian military are women. If about half of the Russian population are women that means that less than 25.16 Million males are eligible for combat service (if everyone is healthy, fit for military service, etc).

Putting this another way, about 6% (1.5M) of all Russian males would be in the Russian military. That also means that this 6% would be consuming, not contributing towards, the Russian economy (e.g. the tribble factor) and it's productivity and is the rosiest picture that could ever be drawn

https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/women-russian-military#:~:text=Women%20in%20the%20Russian%20military%20today&text=In%20May%202020%2C%20Minister%20of,forces%2C%20according%20to%20official%20figures.

PROBLEM #2:
This also means about 42% of the population is 'carried' in terms of social programs and pensions by no more than 35% of the population (before subtracting out the military, wounded veterans, criminals, etc.).

When you look at the official labor rates (about 55% women and 70% men) translates to approximately 13.75'ish million women, 17.5 million men comprising the Russian labor force.

That 6% tribble factor starts looking closer to 8 or 9%, and remember this is ONLY the Russian military - not the bloated Russian Government or security apparatus, criminals, wounded veterans, mentally ill, etc.

PROBLEM #3:
With a birthrate of 1.5, Russia will halve it's population about every two generations.
Normally, Russia would have a "net loss of one person every 30 seconds"
Assuming 365 days/yr * 24 hr/day * 60 sec/hr = 525,600 sec/yr; that's a loss of 17,520/yr.

But this past year it's estimated that Russia lost ten times that in Ukraine; many who may not have been old enough to start a family.

PROBLEM #4:
Look at this chart. This was 2021, so add two years shift.



Notice how small the draft pool is?
Notice how small the under 18 pool is compared to the 40+? (e.g. unlikely to have children at that age)

It's the population equivalent of a 'deadpool.'

Bottom line - I think this is why they're inching up the draft age - to ride the 'hump' of males as they get older and raise families?

And Russia is closing in on 200,000 casualties from this war.

[Anonymous]

We could not win in Afghanistan against a bunch of sheep herders with our own military deployed for over 20 years. We are not even trying to win in Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We could not win in Afghanistan against a bunch of sheep herders with our own military deployed for over 20 years. We are not even trying to win in Ukraine.

Just a military industrial complex grift. Hopefully, we don't get world war 3 out of it.

[Anonymous]

FOIA pictures from Denmark show Russian navy in the area of NordStream, with a submarine rescue vehicle(deep sea diver).
This was prior to the explosion, not afterwards.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:FOIA pictures from Denmark show Russian navy in the area of NordStream, with a submarine rescue vehicle(deep sea diver).
This was prior to the explosion, not afterwards.

LOL did someone get tired of the Next Great Hypothesis of three men in a "pro-Ukrainian" kayak blowing up a major pipeline?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia cannot even produce this common, 1800s-era technology, crucial to making any new tanks, but subject to western embargo:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?sh=4b8c3c5a23f2

- the simple ball bearing.

The US, EU, and Japan make them.

Russians are too stupid to produce them.

I don't think Russia is 'too stupid'. I think Russia is 'too empty'. It's a dying country.

"At present, Russian law requires men aged 18-27 are required to perform military service."

I couldn't figure out why Russia made a crazy law like this:

"The new bill, which was authored by State Duma Defense Committee chair Andrei Kartapolov and two other deputies from the ruling United Russia party, raises the upper age limit for conscription to 30."
"It also mandates the gradual raising of the minimum conscription age, increasing it to 19 in 2024, to 20 in 2025, and finally to 21 in 2026."
"The introduction of the bill follows President Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal to increase Russia’s combat personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million in December."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/14/russian-lawmakers-introduce-bill-raising-draft-age-a80477

PROBLEM #1:
Under 18 years (23%) and 45+ (42%) leaves about 50.4 Million (35%) of the Russian population in the age range capable of fighing in Ukraine. However only 41K (4.26%) of the Russian military are women. If about half of the Russian population are women that means that less than 25.16 Million males are eligible for combat service (if everyone is healthy, fit for military service, etc).

Putting this another way, about 6% (1.5M) of all Russian males would be in the Russian military. That also means that this 6% would be consuming, not contributing towards, the Russian economy (e.g. the tribble factor) and it's productivity and is the rosiest picture that could ever be drawn

https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/women-russian-military#:~:text=Women%20in%20the%20Russian%20military%20today&text=In%20May%202020%2C%20Minister%20of,forces%2C%20according%20to%20official%20figures.

PROBLEM #2:
This also means about 42% of the population is 'carried' in terms of social programs and pensions by no more than 35% of the population (before subtracting out the military, wounded veterans, criminals, etc.).

When you look at the official labor rates (about 55% women and 70% men) translates to approximately 13.75'ish million women, 17.5 million men comprising the Russian labor force.

That 6% tribble factor starts looking closer to 8 or 9%, and remember this is ONLY the Russian military - not the bloated Russian Government or security apparatus, criminals, wounded veterans, mentally ill, etc.

PROBLEM #3:
With a birthrate of 1.5, Russia will halve it's population about every two generations.
Normally, Russia would have a "net loss of one person every 30 seconds"
Assuming 365 days/yr * 24 hr/day * 60 sec/hr = 525,600 sec/yr; that's a loss of 17,520/yr.

But this past year it's estimated that Russia lost ten times that in Ukraine; many who may not have been old enough to start a family.

PROBLEM #4:
Look at this chart. This was 2021, so add two years shift.



Notice how small the draft pool is?
Notice how small the under 18 pool is compared to the 40+? (e.g. unlikely to have children at that age)

It's the population equivalent of a 'deadpool.'

Bottom line - I think this is why they're inching up the draft age - to ride the 'hump' of males as they get older and raise families?

And Russia is closing in on 200,000 casualties from this war.

Whatever demographic ills are befalling Russia as a result of this war, would be fully applicable to Ukraine as well. The latter is dealing with battlefield casualties as well as 8 million refugees who have fled country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We could not win in Afghanistan against a bunch of sheep herders with our own military deployed for over 20 years. We are not even trying to win in Ukraine.

Just a military industrial complex grift. Hopefully, we don't get world war 3 out of it.

Why does Russia want to reward all our defense contractors like this? They are not even getting anything out of it. Do they get a kick back or something?