Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We could not win in Afghanistan against a bunch of sheep herders with our own military deployed for over 20 years. We are not even trying to win in Ukraine.

Just a military industrial complex grift. Hopefully, we don't get world war 3 out of it.

Why does Russia want to reward all our defense contractors like this? They are not even getting anything out of it. Do they get a kick back or something?

Ask Haliburton, would ya?

https://scheerpost.com/2023/04/30/us-corporations-cash-in-on-ukraines-oil-and-gas/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia cannot even produce this common, 1800s-era technology, crucial to making any new tanks, but subject to western embargo:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?sh=4b8c3c5a23f2

- the simple ball bearing.

The US, EU, and Japan make them.

Russians are too stupid to produce them.

I don't think Russia is 'too stupid'. I think Russia is 'too empty'. It's a dying country.

"At present, Russian law requires men aged 18-27 are required to perform military service."

I couldn't figure out why Russia made a crazy law like this:

"The new bill, which was authored by State Duma Defense Committee chair Andrei Kartapolov and two other deputies from the ruling United Russia party, raises the upper age limit for conscription to 30."
"It also mandates the gradual raising of the minimum conscription age, increasing it to 19 in 2024, to 20 in 2025, and finally to 21 in 2026."
"The introduction of the bill follows President Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal to increase Russia’s combat personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million in December."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/14/russian-lawmakers-introduce-bill-raising-draft-age-a80477

PROBLEM #1:
Under 18 years (23%) and 45+ (42%) leaves about 50.4 Million (35%) of the Russian population in the age range capable of fighing in Ukraine. However only 41K (4.26%) of the Russian military are women. If about half of the Russian population are women that means that less than 25.16 Million males are eligible for combat service (if everyone is healthy, fit for military service, etc).

Putting this another way, about 6% (1.5M) of all Russian males would be in the Russian military. That also means that this 6% would be consuming, not contributing towards, the Russian economy (e.g. the tribble factor) and it's productivity and is the rosiest picture that could ever be drawn

https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/women-russian-military#:~:text=Women%20in%20the%20Russian%20military%20today&text=In%20May%202020%2C%20Minister%20of,forces%2C%20according%20to%20official%20figures.

PROBLEM #2:
This also means about 42% of the population is 'carried' in terms of social programs and pensions by no more than 35% of the population (before subtracting out the military, wounded veterans, criminals, etc.).

When you look at the official labor rates (about 55% women and 70% men) translates to approximately 13.75'ish million women, 17.5 million men comprising the Russian labor force.

That 6% tribble factor starts looking closer to 8 or 9%, and remember this is ONLY the Russian military - not the bloated Russian Government or security apparatus, criminals, wounded veterans, mentally ill, etc.

PROBLEM #3:
With a birthrate of 1.5, Russia will halve it's population about every two generations.
Normally, Russia would have a "net loss of one person every 30 seconds"
Assuming 365 days/yr * 24 hr/day * 60 sec/hr = 525,600 sec/yr; that's a loss of 17,520/yr.

But this past year it's estimated that Russia lost ten times that in Ukraine; many who may not have been old enough to start a family.

PROBLEM #4:
Look at this chart. This was 2021, so add two years shift.



Notice how small the draft pool is?
Notice how small the under 18 pool is compared to the 40+? (e.g. unlikely to have children at that age)

It's the population equivalent of a 'deadpool.'

Bottom line - I think this is why they're inching up the draft age - to ride the 'hump' of males as they get older and raise families?

And Russia is closing in on 200,000 casualties from this war.

Whatever demographic ills are befalling Russia as a result of this war, would be fully applicable to Ukraine as well. The latter is dealing with battlefield casualties as well as 8 million refugees who have fled country.

8 million fled at the beginning of the invasion. Since then, around 4.5 million have returned to Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

We've gone from Ukraine's lack of grain harvest is raising world prices, to European countries are being forced to purchase grain from Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We've gone from Ukraine's lack of grain harvest is raising world prices, to European countries are being forced to purchase grain from Ukraine.

And Polish/Romanian farmers rebelling because Ukraine's tariff-free grain is displacing theirs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We've gone from Ukraine's lack of grain harvest is raising world prices, to European countries are being forced to purchase grain from Ukraine.

And Polish/Romanian farmers rebelling because Ukraine's tariff-free grain is displacing theirs.

WARSAW, April 15 (Reuters) - Poland and Hungary have decided to ban imports of grain and other food from neighbouring Ukraine to protect the local agricultural sector, the two governments said on Saturday, after a flood of supply depressed prices across the region.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-government-bans-grain-food-imports-ukraine-2023-04-15/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We've gone from Ukraine's lack of grain harvest is raising world prices, to European countries are being forced to purchase grain from Ukraine.

And Polish/Romanian farmers rebelling because Ukraine's tariff-free grain is displacing theirs.

Ehh, Polish and Romanian farmers might have more of an excuse to complain if they also had to dodge Russian mines while harvesting their grain.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We've gone from Ukraine's lack of grain harvest is raising world prices, to European countries are being forced to purchase grain from Ukraine.

And Polish/Romanian farmers rebelling because Ukraine's tariff-free grain is displacing theirs.

Ehh, Polish and Romanian farmers might have more of an excuse to complain if they also had to dodge Russian mines while harvesting their grain.

They didn't need more excuses because their governments listened by banning Ukrainian food imports.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Russia cannot even produce this common, 1800s-era technology, crucial to making any new tanks, but subject to western embargo:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?sh=4b8c3c5a23f2

- the simple ball bearing.

The US, EU, and Japan make them.

Russians are too stupid to produce them.

I don't think Russia is 'too stupid'. I think Russia is 'too empty'. It's a dying country.

"At present, Russian law requires men aged 18-27 are required to perform military service."

I couldn't figure out why Russia made a crazy law like this:

"The new bill, which was authored by State Duma Defense Committee chair Andrei Kartapolov and two other deputies from the ruling United Russia party, raises the upper age limit for conscription to 30."
"It also mandates the gradual raising of the minimum conscription age, increasing it to 19 in 2024, to 20 in 2025, and finally to 21 in 2026."
"The introduction of the bill follows President Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal to increase Russia’s combat personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million in December."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/14/russian-lawmakers-introduce-bill-raising-draft-age-a80477

PROBLEM #1:
Under 18 years (23%) and 45+ (42%) leaves about 50.4 Million (35%) of the Russian population in the age range capable of fighing in Ukraine. However only 41K (4.26%) of the Russian military are women. If about half of the Russian population are women that means that less than 25.16 Million males are eligible for combat service (if everyone is healthy, fit for military service, etc).

Putting this another way, about 6% (1.5M) of all Russian males would be in the Russian military. That also means that this 6% would be consuming, not contributing towards, the Russian economy (e.g. the tribble factor) and it's productivity and is the rosiest picture that could ever be drawn

https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/women-russian-military#:~:text=Women%20in%20the%20Russian%20military%20today&text=In%20May%202020%2C%20Minister%20of,forces%2C%20according%20to%20official%20figures.

PROBLEM #2:
This also means about 42% of the population is 'carried' in terms of social programs and pensions by no more than 35% of the population (before subtracting out the military, wounded veterans, criminals, etc.).

When you look at the official labor rates (about 55% women and 70% men) translates to approximately 13.75'ish million women, 17.5 million men comprising the Russian labor force.

That 6% tribble factor starts looking closer to 8 or 9%, and remember this is ONLY the Russian military - not the bloated Russian Government or security apparatus, criminals, wounded veterans, mentally ill, etc.

PROBLEM #3:
With a birthrate of 1.5, Russia will halve it's population about every two generations.
Normally, Russia would have a "net loss of one person every 30 seconds"
Assuming 365 days/yr * 24 hr/day * 60 sec/hr = 525,600 sec/yr; that's a loss of 17,520/yr.

But this past year it's estimated that Russia lost ten times that in Ukraine; many who may not have been old enough to start a family.

PROBLEM #4:
Look at this chart. This was 2021, so add two years shift.



Notice how small the draft pool is?
Notice how small the under 18 pool is compared to the 40+? (e.g. unlikely to have children at that age)

It's the population equivalent of a 'deadpool.'

Bottom line - I think this is why they're inching up the draft age - to ride the 'hump' of males as they get older and raise families?

And Russia is closing in on 200,000 casualties from this war.

Whatever demographic ills are befalling Russia as a result of this war, would be fully applicable to Ukraine as well. The latter is dealing with battlefield casualties as well as 8 million refugees who have fled country.

Hmm. There is an analogy, but it's not that close.


On the surface, Russia has 144M and Ukraine has 43M people. Many assume when you have three times the population, you automatically win, right?

While it's true that Russia can field three times the Army size, it can only do so at the expense of not being able to defend its territory elsewhere. Ukraine has a population of 65.78 people per square kilometer. Russia has a population of only 8.46 people per square kilometer. That means that Russia has only 13% of the population density of Ukraine. Russia has 6.6 million sq miles to administer. Ukraine only 233K sq miles. While the combat is destroying Ukrainian infrastructure, Russia is diverting it's funding and resources to the war; at the expense of neglecting maintenance and upkeep of much of the country. Russia could easily also be losing control of sections of the country and not even realize it.

In Russia's case, the people fleeing the country voluntarily left. The could face jail time and branded criminals if they come back, or lose their property if they don't. Russia is largely pursuing the War themselves, so rapidly depleting it's economy, population, and military resources. When the war is over, Russia may use it's oil revenues to resupply and restock their military, but their neighbors are frightened they will be Russia's next target. Russia will be surrounded almost exclusively with enemies and rivals; such as India and China.

In Ukraine's case, the population was involuntarily displaced and they're receiving assistance from other countries. Ukraine is largely pursuing the War with outside help, so game-changers can happen. When the war is over, Ukraine will most likely join NATO, so will benefit from assistance - both militarily and via reconstruction. Ukraine will be surrounded almost exclusively with allies and countries that welcome them.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Now do Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Doesn't anyone ever ask how does NATO/UA know how many Russian casualties there are?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Doesn't anyone ever ask how does NATO/UA know how many Russian casualties there are?

Microchips. There are tiny nanotrackers hidden in the vodka. Why else would pernod ricard re-enter the russian market?

[Anonymous]

Ukraine is running out of resorts- including young men. Time for peace. Lives can be saved.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Doesn't anyone ever ask how does NATO/UA know how many Russian casualties there are?

They don't know. It's just informed guessing, if that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We could not win in Afghanistan against a bunch of sheep herders with our own military deployed for over 20 years. We are not even trying to win in Ukraine.

Just a military industrial complex grift. Hopefully, we don't get world war 3 out of it.

Why does Russia want to reward all our defense contractors like this? They are not even getting anything out of it. Do they get a kick back or something?

What does Russia have to do with the grift between our politicians and defense contractors? They are literally in this war to lose. You think the politicians we elected can wage a successful war? Why?