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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Russia cannot even produce this common, 1800s-era technology, crucial to making any new tanks, but subject to western embargo:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/19/whats-perfectly-round-made-of-metal-and-keeping-russia-from-replacing-the-2000-tanks-its-lost-in-ukraine/?sh=4b8c3c5a23f2

- the simple ball bearing.

The US, EU, and Japan make them.

Russians are too stupid to produce them.[/quote]

I don't think Russia is 'too stupid'.  I think Russia is 'too empty'.  It's a dying country.

"At present, Russian law requires men aged 18-27 are required to perform military service."

I couldn't figure out why Russia made a crazy law like this:

"The new bill, which was authored by State Duma Defense Committee chair Andrei Kartapolov and two other deputies from the ruling United Russia party, raises the upper age limit for conscription to 30."
"It also mandates the gradual raising of the minimum conscription age, increasing it to 19 in 2024, to 20 in 2025, and finally to 21 in 2026."
"The introduction of the bill follows President Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s proposal to increase Russia’s combat personnel from 1.15 million to 1.5 million in December."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/14/russian-lawmakers-introduce-bill-raising-draft-age-a80477

PROBLEM #1:
Under 18 years (23%) and 45+ (42%) leaves about 50.4 Million (35%) of the Russian population in the age range capable of fighing in Ukraine.  However only 41K (4.26%) of the Russian military are women.  If about half of the Russian population are women that means that less than 25.16 Million males are eligible for combat service (if everyone is healthy, fit for military service, etc).

Putting this another way, about 6% (1.5M) of all Russian males would be in the Russian military.  That also means that this 6% would be consuming, not contributing towards, the Russian economy (e.g. the tribble factor) and it's productivity and is the rosiest picture that could ever be drawn

https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/women-russian-military#:~:text=Women%20in%20the%20Russian%20military%20today&text=In%20May%202020%2C%20Minister%20of,forces%2C%20according%20to%20official%20figures.

PROBLEM #2:
This also means about 42% of the population is 'carried' in terms of social programs and pensions by no more than 35% of the population (before subtracting out the military, wounded veterans, criminals, etc.).

When you look at the official labor rates (about 55% women and 70% men) translates to approximately 13.75'ish million women, 17.5 million men comprising the Russian labor force.

That 6% tribble factor starts looking closer to 8 or 9%, and remember this is ONLY the Russian military - not the bloated Russian Government or security apparatus, criminals, wounded veterans, mentally ill, etc.

PROBLEM #3:
With a birthrate of 1.5, Russia will halve it's population about every two generations.
Normally, Russia would have a "net loss of one person every 30 seconds"  
Assuming 365 days/yr * 24 hr/day * 60 sec/hr = 525,600 sec/yr; that's a loss of 17,520/yr.

But this past year it's estimated that Russia lost ten times that in Ukraine; many who may not have been old enough to start a family.

PROBLEM #4:
Look at this chart.  This was 2021, so add two years shift.

[img]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/RUS_SbA1y20210101.png[/img]

Notice how small the draft pool is?
Notice how small the under 18 pool is compared to the 40+? (e.g. unlikely to have children at that age)

It's the population equivalent of a 'deadpool.'

Bottom line - I think this is why they're inching up the draft age - to ride the 'hump' of males as they get older and raise families?[/quote]

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