OP here, of course I'm a parent - elementary school kids - there's no way someone who is not a parent would be tracking this debate. Two words: Lexia. Reflex. But I'm flattered you assumed that I couldn't be a parent. Also, why does it matter who I am? Still aren't refuting the concern. The only legit response I've seen so far is, "if we're wrong, we can always lockdown again." Ok - hope you aren't in the first wave of casualties. |
That's because you have ignored everyone who has told you that you are wrong, that you are not interpreting the data or science correctly. Only legit response? Okay. Your poor kids. In a couple months, I hope you forget about this thread, accept your status as a vaccinated person, and send your kids out of the house. To school, to a summer camp, anything. |
I want to know how you looked at this ensemble model from your first link and decided it meant the pandemic is getting more dangerous. It looks like that line is continuing to go down.
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OP here. To answer your question, I looked at the underlying assumptions of all the models, which I also linked to in my post. I scanned these assumptions, and found that they were assuming that past transmission rates would continue in the future, with some variance for mobility and weather. Therefore, the models are not taking into account variants that are more transmissible and more lethal, which is my concern. That is my point (which was in the first post) - these graphs are not reflecting this possible lethal variable. |
THIS |
You looked at the models and decided you didn't like what they showed so you made up your own model in your head. Have you considered there might be a reason they haven't included the factors you are so scared of in the models? Do you think it's because you know more than them? |
I am worried, OP. But my kindergartener was having a really hard time. School refusal, acting out, loneliness...sure, you can blame me as a bad parent for not providing him enough individual academic and social enrichment to make up for spending 6 hours a day online before he could even read. I admit that I failed to organize sufficiently frequent covid-safe outdoor playdates and fun, motivating school supplementation while working full time and also caring for an infant on a shift schedule with my husband. I just can't do it without a support system. Anyway, when we sent him in 2 days a week, it made a positive difference. He sounds happier, is more motivated for school, and has basically stopped acting out with no other changes - I think, and a teacher friend agrees, that it was a cry for normalcy. At the time we did, the numbers were continually improving and we were hopeful vaccination would stay ahead of variants. Now it's looking like we will not. My husband's a vaccinated hospital worker, but the kids and i could get sick, and I AM scared about that. It's a hard balance. I'm not sure when to call it and withdraw the kid, but it means so much to him, it's not going to be before his school has had a single covid case. |
OP here, yeah I agree this sounds ridiculous, but it's not because I think I know more than them. Instead, I have witnessed public health take a back seat to populist politics for the past year, and so I can imagine the immense pressure that bureaucrats are under to declare everything is hunky dory finally. So, instead, I've been listening to two experts who have been consistently truth-telling without mincing words, and who have been proven right through the passage of time: Laurie Garrett and Eric Feigl-Ding. And they are raising the alarm right now about variants. Again, all I asked is why the open schools now crowd is so certain about what they want. The viruses don't care how much the children or all of us have suffered. I appreciated the PP's nuanced response about her conflicted decisions about sending her young child back. That makes sense to me. The rabid demands about what schools should do in fall don't make sense to me. |
Welp, that's your problem. In addition to not actually being an expert in infectious disease, are you aware that Feigl-Ding moved to Austria last fall for.. IN PERSON SCHOOL. Yes, really. If you're going to trust people on Twitter, you should also follow Monica Gandhi as well for more balance. |
I blame you for not teaching your child to read and giving them more support. K. is really easy and no big deal. |
Learning to read is not the most important thing that kindergartners learn in school. We all know that. Even you know that, when you stop knee-jerk attacking posters. |
Great, yeah, I admitted it. My kid didn't know 100% of the K material before starting K - failure 1! And we did and do work on reading in the evenings in ways my kid enjoys more, but thats not really the issue - long term virtual school is not ok for some 5 year olds. I DID fail to meet all of his social, emotional, and needs with zero support or ability to associate with anyone else indoors all winter. I can't independently organize the amount of social interaction that makes up for school, and I can't force or bribe meaningful participation in 6 hours a day online. I admit it! I tried! It wasn't good enough, If you'd like I could flagellate myself some more. But I'm not going to because I don't think this is a reasonable position to put parents of young elementary schoolers in for over a year and blame any poor outcomes on THEM. There have been so many failures in this pandemic. I don't think parents are among them. All our choices suck. |
Seriously? This person is working full-time AND caring for an infant AND supporting virtual school AND feeding 2 children AND dealing with the challenging social-emotional adjustment of her son while her husband is working at a hospital for a year, and you want to BLAME HER for not teaching her child to read? WTF. Disappointed in you as a human! ![]() |
Because people value the mental health of their children: "Among the report’s recommendations, increasing safe access to childcare and elementary schooling stands out among increasing mental health research and care." https://www.covidminds.org/post/lancet-covid-19-commission-lara-aknin |
The numbers in Texas and Mississippi, who the President declared were engaged in 'Neanderthal thinking' by dropping their mask mandates, have had better results with numbers going down, while stricter lockdown and mandate states like NY, NJ, Mich have their numbers going up. |