Why are you demanding 5 day in-person school now that the pandemic is getting more dangerous?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I want to know how you looked at this ensemble model from your first link and decided it meant the pandemic is getting more dangerous. It looks like that line is continuing to go down.

OP here. To answer your question, I looked at the underlying assumptions of all the models, which I also linked to in my post. I scanned these assumptions, and found that they were assuming that past transmission rates would continue in the future, with some variance for mobility and weather. Therefore, the models are not taking into account variants that are more transmissible and more lethal, which is my concern. That is my point (which was in the first post) - these graphs are not reflecting this possible lethal variable.

I missed this the first time. Models have not been very accurate for COVID. However, you are not looking at output of actual models or ensembles to say the pandemic is getting worse. Just that the assumptions in the models you are looking at assume less transmission and death than reality. That doesn't mean a model with updated assumptions would produce worse results. Maybe it would, maybe not. For example, you could have the higher lethality causing infected people to die rather than spread the disease.

If it was really highly contagious and highly lethal, the numbers would be much worse. You can't have both factors. Of course you aren't really saying it is either, just more than the original strains.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The viruses don't care how much the children or all of us have suffered.

... The rabid demands about what schools should do in fall don't make sense to me.

You are complaining that schools should not be reopening in the FALL? I thought Pete Snyder was stupid for running a campaign on this but now I'm not so sure.
Perhaps the virus does care about how much the children have suffered, because it is taking it easy on them. This is the opposite of most flu viruses.

[Anonymous]

Israel, once they hit 70% pf the population vaccinated, recorded ZERO (0) new cases for the first time in nearly a year. We will get there very quickly.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Because people value the mental health of their children: "Among the report’s recommendations, increasing safe access to childcare and elementary schooling stands out among increasing mental health research and care." https://www.covidminds.org/post/lancet-covid-19-commission-lara-aknin

Exactly. NP here but I am not looking at COVID risks in a vacuum. There are very real harms that are actually being experience by kids now. Kids are at a very low risk of COVID. The teachers are vaccinated and parents are on their way to vaccination. Families that elect in-person should be given it with as many days possible. Families that are too concerned can switch to virtual.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because the big picture isn’t what matters for schools. What matters for schools is the risk to teachers and other school staff plus students. Teachers and staff are now vaccinated. Children are low risk for serious issues from covid.

What about their unvaccinated parents and family members?

What about them? Let their families decide if it is worth the (low) risk or not, as distance learning is still and always has been an option for them. No one is forcing kids or families into situations that make them uncomfortable, which is why virtual learning is still an option. For those of us whose children are not thriving under the DL model and we are willing to accept the low risk and trust mitigation measures in place, it is time to return to the classroom more than 2 days per week. It is not like this is coming out of the blue—they have had 13 months to plan, measure, etc... Time for action.

[Anonymous]

Wow, APE doesn't know what to do with itself this week without AEM.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t demand anything but I think in person school is something that is very high priority. If not 5, then at least some days a week.
I think nothing in this world is 0 risk. Should we all stay home because we can be killed in a car crash?

Please stop with the car crash nonsense. If you don’t understand the difference between a car crash and a pandemic, you’re profoundly dim.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If it’s that dangerous, then we need to close bars, restaurants, movie theaters, etc. and prioritize schools. Kids have sacrificed enough, there is a vaccine now. Deaths from COVID aren’t the only harm that matter. I do not think the learning loss and other harm from school closures (increase in teenage crime, mental health issues, young kids left at home alone, etc.) are tolerable any longer. It’s time to prioritize the young. Anyone scared of this virus can continue to stay home. The world is full of scary things, but we shouldn’t shut down our entire in-person education system because of it. Not to mention, am in-person education shouldn’t be a luxury good for the wealthy who can buy their way into private school.

I have young elementary kids who cannot reasonably be expected to do school on an iPad any longer, and my job isn’t going to allow me to work from home to help oversee their schooling forever.

Sorry, but I’m not keeping my kids home into eternity to save people who don’t want to get vaccinated. The vaccines are effective against death and hospitalization. I don’t owe it to anyone to stay home so they don’t have to get a cold.

For those who are for keeping schools closed, why aren’t you out there protesting all the private bars, hotels, flights, etc. that are open? Why are we okay using children as pawns in this pandemic?

Then, you hire child care, just like you did when they were little. There are no vaccines for kids. Not everyone is eligible as an adult to get a vaccine. COVID is not a cold.

That doesn't make sense. Your post doesn't make sense.

Try again.

Actually, it made perfect sense. You try again. NP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, per Emily Ouster’s data in areas of high spread by the CDC’s definition, the most open schools had a lower case count than half open schools among students and staff at all grades. Basic mitigation (masking and 3 feet) works, look: https://statsiq.co1.qualtrics.com/public-dashboard/v0/dashboard/5f78e5d4de521a001036f78e?fbclid=IwAR3CnonaZI2WH0J76iFNz9mIVfW8lnOai_BNvGZDFZ7o3lFkLlIe9t3tk8s#/dashboard/5f78e5d4de521a001036f78e?pageId=Page_ffb4dc52-5543-46b2-8126-2b7229fd1b17

OP here, ok at least this is data, but my premise is that PAST U.S. data is not relevant IF there is widespread transmission of these NEW variants in the U.S. in the future.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/03/experts-3-foot-rule-schools-problematic-light-covid-variants

"At the same time that CDC officials were updating school policy, they were also warning that B117, a variant strain 50% more transmissible than the wild-type virus, would likely become the dominant strain in the United States by April. In some states, such as Florida and California, the variant, which was first detected in the United Kingdom, already accounts for 25% of cases.

Now several experts are concerned that schools may be opening during an inflection point in the pandemic and are being misguided about how to do so."

So to summarize, you are advocating to keep kids (who are low risk) from school with fully vaccinated teachers because you are afraid that some variant MIGHT run wild at some point in the future. You have not indicated any concern about the actual local numbers currently reported in Northern Virginia, this is all about some theoretical "what if" scenario. If you are going to decide that past data isn't relevant and vaccines aren't relevant, I don't really know what to tell you.

For the record, schools can be closed again if opening turns out to be a mistake.

Are you kidding? They would never close again. The slavering hordes of Make My Children Someone Else’s Problem parents would riot in the streets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here. I am not Ventilation lady and I have never posted on AEM and I don't belong to it either.

Why are people posting things without sources? Maybe that's my answer - the people who are demanding return right now have really, really, really strong cognitive bias and believe what they want to believe and don't seek out information.

The current vaccines are not as effective against South African strain and Brazil strain. The NYTimes article cited by a PP was based on health workers in the U.S., where the other variants were not yet circulating. In fact, the reason the J&J vaccine had lower efficacy was because it was partially tested in South Africa.

https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/why-coronavirus-variants-might-undercut-vaccine-efficacy
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2102214

I posted earlier that the Brazil variant reinfects people who already were infected. Also, vaccine manufacturers are actively working on new vaccines for the variants. If the current vaccines were effective, why would they work on new ones? If you don't believe me, or in science, or in data, or in news, can you at least believe in market capitalism?



Also, I don't fly, go to bars, eat at restaurants, etc. I'm not advocating for that instead of schools opening? What a straw man argument! jeez

Ok well just like you don’t go to bars, restaurants, etc. you also DON’T HAVE TO SEND YOUR KID TO SCHOOL. Just OPT OUT if you’re not comfortable with it. And it’s not a straw man argument. You sound like you don’t even know what that means. The point is that why are you not worried about exposure at these other locations (bars, planes, etc.) but you are worried about schools? It’s not like COVID variants act differently in a restaurant than in a school. And if society can only tolerate a certain level of potential exposure then I would argue education is vastly more important than drinking a beer at a bar. So it’s a perfectly rational point to bring up — go fight the spread of COVID at all these other locations if you’re *that* worried about the new variants.

If you aren’t worried about the spread in those places b/c you don’t go there, then why do you care about potential spread at schools when all districts have announced plans to continue with virtual. Just don’t send your kid if you’re that worried but you don’t get to take away this fundamental right from the rest of us because you think the world owes you safety from COVID.

OP here. I'm not worried for myself! I'm not sending my kids back to in-person school in 2021. At some point I may worry about collapse of the health care system and needing to go to a hospital for something unrelated to covid, but I'm not worried about exposure because of my choices.

I asked why YOU weren't worried because you are wanting to send your kids back to in-person school in 2021. I would ask the same exact question to anyone who went to a bar, went to a restaurant, or flew on a plane. In fact, I have mentioned this to friends and family last week.

I am worried, OP. But my kindergartener was having a really hard time. School refusal, acting out, loneliness...sure, you can blame me as a bad parent for not providing him enough individual academic and social enrichment to make up for spending 6 hours a day online before he could even read. I admit that I failed to organize sufficiently frequent covid-safe outdoor playdates and fun, motivating school supplementation while working full time and also caring for an infant on a shift schedule with my husband. I just can't do it without a support system.

Anyway, when we sent him in 2 days a week, it made a positive difference. He sounds happier, is more motivated for school, and has basically stopped acting out with no other changes - I think, and a teacher friend agrees, that it was a cry for normalcy.

At the time we did, the numbers were continually improving and we were hopeful vaccination would stay ahead of variants. Now it's looking like we will not. My husband's a vaccinated hospital worker, but the kids and i could get sick, and I AM scared about that. It's a hard balance. I'm not sure when to call it and withdraw the kid, but it means so much to him, it's not going to be before his school has had a single covid case.

I blame you for not teaching your child to read and giving them more support. K. is really easy and no big deal.

Seriously? This person is working full-time AND caring for an infant AND supporting virtual school AND feeding 2 children AND dealing with the challenging social-emotional adjustment of her son while her husband is working at a hospital for a year, and you want to BLAME HER for not teaching her child to read? WTF. Disappointed in you as a human!

And hundreds of thousands of of other parents are doing the same and didn’t throw up their hands and let their kid be unable to read in APRIL of their kindergarten year instead of applying some of the 168 hours in the week to helping them learn, but hey, keep making excuses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Because people value the mental health of their children: "Among the report’s recommendations, increasing safe access to childcare and elementary schooling stands out among increasing mental health research and care." https://www.covidminds.org/post/lancet-covid-19-commission-lara-aknin

I am a teacher who teaches in the building 4 days a week. I’m fine with it. It doesn’t fix mental health issues which are caused by brain chemistry and a lot of other external factors school can’t control for, like family relationships and circumstances and socioeconomics and on and on. School could never prevent or fix these mental health issues because they are issues of HEALTH. This is abundantly clear by all the parents who post here saying they sent their kids back and the kids now have anxiety about being at school or hate it and now want to stay home. School is all around good for kids but stop dragging the mental health piece into it. School doesn’t cause mental health issues and it can’t fix any of them either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because people value the mental health of their children: "Among the report’s recommendations, increasing safe access to childcare and elementary schooling stands out among increasing mental health research and care." https://www.covidminds.org/post/lancet-covid-19-commission-lara-aknin

I am a teacher who teaches in the building 4 days a week. I’m fine with it. It doesn’t fix mental health issues which are caused by brain chemistry and a lot of other external factors school can’t control for, like family relationships and circumstances and socioeconomics and on and on. School could never prevent or fix these mental health issues because they are issues of HEALTH. This is abundantly clear by all the parents who post here saying they sent their kids back and the kids now have anxiety about being at school or hate it and now want to stay home. School is all around good for kids but stop dragging the mental health piece into it. School doesn’t cause mental health issues and it can’t fix any of them either.

Studies have shown that loneliness can cause health issues. We are a social species. I am lucky that I have a big family so my kids have each other and the parents work from home. But I don't believe that my situation applies to everyone - lots of children are left home alone all day while the parents work one or even two jobs. That would drive anyone to mental illness after a year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t demand anything but I think in person school is something that is very high priority. If not 5, then at least some days a week.
I think nothing in this world is 0 risk. Should we all stay home because we can be killed in a car crash?

Please stop with the car crash nonsense. If you don’t understand the difference between a car crash and a pandemic, you’re profoundly dim.

Covid is less dangerous to the average person then a car crash.

[Anonymous]

I’m in the suburbs around a small city. They went back full-time in January.
There has not been an associated rise in Covid cases in the local area. It’s been two months, and no substantial change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t demand anything but I think in person school is something that is very high priority. If not 5, then at least some days a week.
I think nothing in this world is 0 risk. Should we all stay home because we can be killed in a car crash?

Please stop with the car crash nonsense. If you don’t understand the difference between a car crash and a pandemic, you’re profoundly dim.

Covid is less dangerous to the average person then a car crash.

DP.
The point is life is about taking risks. And each person needs to decide what risks they are willing to take.