Reply to Why are you demanding 5 day in-person school now that the pandemic is getting more dangerous?

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Reply to "Why are you demanding 5 day in-person school now that the pandemic is getting more dangerous?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I want to know how you looked at this ensemble model from your first link and decided it meant the pandemic is getting more dangerous. It looks like that line is continuing to go down.

[img]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/covid-data/National-Forecast-Incident-Cumulative-Deaths-2021-03-22-large.jpg[/img][/quote]

OP here. To answer your question, I looked at the underlying assumptions of all the models, which I also linked to in my post. I scanned these assumptions, and found that they were assuming that past transmission rates would continue in the future, with some variance for mobility and weather. Therefore, the models are not taking into account variants that are more transmissible and more lethal, which is my concern. That is my point (which was in the first post) - these graphs are not reflecting this possible lethal variable.

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You looked at the models and decided you didn't like what they showed so you made up your own model in your head. Have you considered there might be a reason they haven't included the factors you are so scared of in the models? Do you think it's because you know more than them?[/quote]

OP here, yeah I agree this sounds ridiculous, but it's not because I think I know more than them. Instead, I have witnessed public health take a back seat to populist politics for the past year, and so I can imagine the immense pressure that bureaucrats are under to declare everything is hunky dory finally. So, instead, I've been listening to two experts who have been consistently truth-telling without mincing words, and who have been proven right through the passage of time: Laurie Garrett and Eric Feigl-Ding. And they are raising the alarm right now about variants. Again, all I asked is why the open schools now crowd is so certain about what they want.

The viruses don't care how much the children or all of us have suffered.

I appreciated the PP's nuanced response about her conflicted decisions about sending her young child back. That makes sense to me. The rabid demands about what schools should do in fall don't make sense to me.

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